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Land Reg Report May 2013

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It's like pass the parcel for rich people foreigners!

Amended for you.

Edited by Deckard

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That is an amazing set of figures given that it has been presented as house prices rising.

Only to be expected from the index that excludes transactions that "do not represent the true market value of the property". Bent as a nine bob note.

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Pure comedy. :D

It's like pass the parcel for rich people!

GoingDown_zps4443097b.jpg

Brilliant statistics........think of all the stamp duty and fees the rich are contributing to the economy, let them churn the recovery on behalf of the rest. ;)

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I like what they choose to highlight in that paragraph on the left: the number of sales over £1m. Never mind the 30-40% collapse in by far the largest part of the market (£100k-£250k)!

Edited by Dorkins

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Why do you say that??

3 houses sell in a given time period for £1m, £400k & £100k.

The average selling price is £500k.

In the following period, the market struggles. The bottom of the market collapses altogether, the £100k houses didnt sell. The other two did, but at a 10% discount.

The average selling price is now £630k.

The moral of the story is that as long as the bottom of the market suffers the most, the statistician can tell you that average prices are rising.

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Only to be expected from the index that excludes transactions that "do not represent the true market value of the property". Bent as a nine bob note.

+1

Brilliant statistics........think of all the stamp duty and fees the rich are contributing to the economy, let them churn the recovery on behalf of the rest. ;)

+1

3 houses sell in a given time period for £1m, £400k & £100k.

The average selling price is £500k.

In the following period, the market struggles. The bottom of the market collapses altogether, the £100k houses didnt sell. The other two did, but at a 10% discount.

The average selling price is now £630k.

The moral of the story is that as long as the bottom of the market suffers the most, the statistician can tell you that average prices are rising.

They're allowed to do that and call it the average? I am truly appalled at them. How many people realise that's pretty much how they do it? Very few, I'd wager.

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I like what they choose to highlight in that paragraph on the left: the number of sales over £1m. Never mind the 30-40% collapse in by far the largest part of the market (£100k-£250k)!

That is due to stamp duty holiday effect.

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They're allowed to do that and call it the average? I am truly appalled at them. How many people realise that's pretty much how they do it? Very few, I'd wager.

That's not how they do it. Don't pay too much attention to the one-eyed men of the HPC kingdom!

How is the HPI calculated?

The HPI is calculated by using Land Registry's own 'Price Paid Dataset'. This is a record of all residential property transactions made in England and Wales since January 1995.

At present it contains details on over 16 million sales. Of these, over six million are identifiable matched pairs, providing the basis for the repeat-sales regression analysis used to compile the index. This technique of quality adjustment ensures an 'apples to apples' comparison between properties.

The HPI is a repeat sales regression (RSR) index, measuring average price changes in repeat sales on the same properties, ensuring a like for like comparison. This means that price changes on a flat in Mayfair are not compared to those on a flat in the Old Kent Road.

The statistical computation of the HPI is performed by Calnea Analytics Limited. Full details of methodology, a discussion of technical questions and a comparison with other index creation methods can be found by visiting www.calnea.com

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That's not how they do it. Don't pay too much attention to the one-eyed men of the HPC kingdom!

How is the HPI calculated?

The HPI is calculated by using Land Registry's own 'Price Paid Dataset'. This is a record of all residential property transactions made in England and Wales since January 1995.

At present it contains details on over 16 million sales. Of these, over six million are identifiable matched pairs, providing the basis for the repeat-sales regression analysis used to compile the index. This technique of quality adjustment ensures an 'apples to apples' comparison between properties.

The HPI is a repeat sales regression (RSR) index, measuring average price changes in repeat sales on the same properties, ensuring a like for like comparison. This means that price changes on a flat in Mayfair are not compared to those on a flat in the Old Kent Road.

The statistical computation of the HPI is performed by Calnea Analytics Limited. Full details of methodology, a discussion of technical questions and a comparison with other index creation methods can be found by visiting www.calnea.com

I only need one eye to recognise manipulated figures when I see them.

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So if I buy a house at say 500k and end up getting repossessed and the property gets sold at 250k this repeat sale will be excluded as it does not represent the true market value of the property, even though this is all that someone (ie the market) is willing to pay for it. Hardly 'apples to apples' as the same apple has been sold twice (when I bought and after repossession) but the latest sale is excluded.

I once asked what happens to the stats when the former repo next gets sold for market value? Calculation based on last but one sale, the last 'true market value'?

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IMHO a sale is a sale is a sale and represents the true market value ... unless you want to exclude sales that would drag the index down.

Yes. That is precisely what they want to do.

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So if it then gets repossessed again and sells for 250k then I assume this is ignored, however if it sells non-repossession for 240k then the new price of 240k is recognised as a true market value but the previous sale of 250k (repo) was not true market value. IMHO a sale is a sale is a sale and represents the true market value ... unless you want to exclude sales that would drag the index down.

If a house is sold for £300K, is completely refurbished and extended at a cost of £200K and resold a year later for £600K, is that excluded from the Land Registry figures? Not likely, it just appears in the figures as though it has appreciated 100% over the past year.

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That is due to stamp duty holiday effect.

Thanks. Those numbers were misleading me (for a moment I was happy...)

But if wikipedia is right, " In the 2010 budget, the Chancellor ended stamp duty on homes under £250,000 for first-time buyers for a two-year period only (...)"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stamp_duty_in_the_United_Kingdom

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Thanks. Those numbers were misleading me (for a moment I was happy...)

But if wikipedia is right, " In the 2010 budget, the Chancellor ended stamp duty on homes under £250,000 for first-time buyers for a two-year period only (...)"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stamp_duty_in_the_United_Kingdom

Stamp duty holiday ends in March 2012.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9331592/Dramatic-fall-in-mortgages-as-stamp-duty-holiday-ends.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17496635

Wikipedia is correct, April 2010 - March 2012 is a 2 year period, not sure what are you implying. This distorted the number of sales for homes under 250k toward March 2012.

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Stamp duty holiday ends in March 2012.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/9331592/Dramatic-fall-in-mortgages-as-stamp-duty-holiday-ends.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17496635

Wikipedia is correct, April 2010 - March 2012 is a 2 year period, not sure what are you implying. This distorted the number of sales for homes under 250k toward March 2012.

I wasn't implying anything. I just thanked you for the info, and linked Wikepedia agreeing with you.

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Picking through the bones of the report, page 15 talks about repossessions and these have greatly reduced (Y-O-Y).

Have the banks been "instructed" to up their levels of forbearance I wonder?

Also, outside the independent principality of London, prices generally continue their slow glide downwards (despite record low interest rates and forbearance).

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Looking like the Bears' favourite index. A bit of a disconnect from all the other data, which even a three month time-lag fails to explain.

Edited by crashmonitor

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