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Uk House Prices Rise At Fastest Annual Pace Since 2010 - Nationwide

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/06/28/uk-house-prices-idUKBRE95R06Z20130628

British house prices rose at their fastest annual pace in nearly three years this month, data from mortgage lender Nationwide showed on Friday, adding to signs that Britain's economy is starting to pick up.

Nationwide said that house prices rose by 0.3 percent on the month in June to give a 1.9 percent annual rise - broadly in line with expectations and the biggest yearly increase since September 2010.

House prices had risen 0.4 percent on the month in May, and the data follows a GfK consumer confidence released earlier on Friday which showed the highest morale in more than two years.

"Demand for homes has been supported by further modest gains in employment, as well as an improvement in the availability and a reduction in the cost of credit, partly as a result of policy measures, such as the Funding for Lending Scheme," said Nationwide's chief economist Robert Gardner.

Friday's VI spunkfest.

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REDUCTION IN THE COST OF CREDIT.

Peeps are still borrowing at their theoretical limits and beyond...this in spite of the BoE calls for a report on the effects of a rise in interest rates on the UK.

Sensible lending is dead.

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IIRC Nationwide's data went on an extended bull run in 2011 that no other sold price index picked up.

Besides which, there's a full Land Reg report out at 11, that should give a more realistic picture (we already know it's up 0.1%).

Edit to add - there should be a Nationwide quarterly report out there somewhere too?

Edited by rantnrave

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Today also sees the release of the latest "Quarterly report", which has regional breakdowns, so expect to see a rash of articles in the media carrying the information from the breakdown.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/NR/rdonlyres/2AF8DF0E-9F96-45EE-B756-EA3B4866FCF8/0/Q2_2013.pdf

The regional data again shows London as having an index change which is in stark contrast to other areas.

Annual price changes are under 1.5% outside of London and the SE, with falls in NI, Scotland and Yorks&Humberside.

Here's my own patch in the NW, still falling:

9g22.jpg

The Nationwide's use of the 10-year change will get interesting in a couple of years, since it was in 2004/05 that HPI really went crazy in many places. A look through the regional data shows some places with 10-year changes under 15%, and perhaps it will not be long before we start seeing decade apart nominal losses in some regions, as we know has happened. As can be seen from the NW chart, we are well away from fair value up here.

Most regions are showing a relative rise in the indices this quarter. It's not enough to push the NW above zero y-o-y but other areas have switched direction, even if only small amounts.

HPI data, including the regular monthly release:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/default.htm

Edited by cheeznbreed

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REDUCTION IN THE COST OF CREDIT.

Peeps are still borrowing at their theoretical limits and beyond...this in spite of the BoE calls for a report on the effects of a rise in interest rates on the UK.

Sensible lending is dead.

I agree, and I wonder how far they will push this. How much debt can they flood the system with?

We now have state-backed mortgages with the new government lending scheme.

What next, 40 year mortgages? 6 x income?

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Just sat through five minutes of spin from the noddy from the Nationwide on Sky News. The more they try to convince me to buy, the more I know not to.

I wouldn't be so sure. The government has shown that they are prepared to do almost anything to maintain house prices for fear of what will happen if prices collapse. Obviously there is a limit to how long the plates can be kept spinning, and when they do eventually fall, all bets are off. Will they still be able to honour those index-linked saving certificates of yours? Who knows. If you can buy a house outright or with just a small mortgage, I'd say it's probably safer than holding savings. I wouldn't take out a big mortgage to buy though.

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I wouldn't be so sure. The government has shown that they are prepared to do almost anything to maintain house prices for fear of what will happen if prices collapse. Obviously there is a limit to how long the plates can be kept spinning, and when they do eventually fall, all bets are off. Will they still be able to honour those index-linked saving certificates of yours? Who knows. If you can buy a house outright or with just a small mortgage, I'd say it's probably safer than holding savings. I wouldn't take out a big mortgage to buy though.

Off you go then :rolleyes:.

Edit: I don't have any index linked savings certificates.

Edited by Bruce Banner

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Off you go then :rolleyes:.

I did, 2 years ago; although my hand was somewhat forced when my landlord died and her children wanted me to move out so they could sell the place. I bought it off them (in full expectation that its value would fall) rather than move out of a house that well suited my needs. The government's "success" in sustaining house prices has been an unexpected benefit for me personally, even if it ultimately proves disastrous for the economy as a whole. :(

Edit: I don't have any index linked savings certificates.

Oh sorry, I thought you did. I thought your were in a position to buy (almost) outright if you wanted to.

Edited by snowflux

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I think I know exactly what is going to happen here. Interest rates rise, houses get repossessed, and savers bailed in to make up the losses. This way they get to rob everyone.

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I did, 2 years ago; although my hand was somewhat forced when my landlord died and her children wanted me to move out so they could sell the place. I bought it off them (in full expectation that its value would fall) rather than move out of a house that well suited my needs. The governments "success" in sustaining house prices has been an unexpected benefit for me personally, even if it ultimately proves disastrous for the economy as a whole.

Oh sorry, I thought you did. I thought your were in a position to buy (almost) outright if you wanted to.

I could buy outright but will wait for value to return to the market, however long that takes.

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I think I know exactly what is going to happen here. Interest rates rise, houses get repossessed, and savers bailed in to make up the losses. This way they get to rob everyone.

Any whiff of that and my money's out of Sterling before you can say Jack Robinson.

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I could buy outright but will wait for value to return to the market, however long that takes.

Given the behaviour of our and other governments, what makes you so sure that the value of your savings will hold up any better than the price of houses?

Edit: Personally, I find it something of a relief that I'm no longer playing a game of cat and mouse where I'm the mouse and the cat is making up the rules of the game as we go along!

Edited by snowflux

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REDUCTION IN THE COST OF CREDIT.

Peeps are still borrowing at their theoretical limits and beyond...this in spite of the BoE calls for a report on the effects of a rise in interest rates on the UK.

Sensible lending is dead.

This..

I wouldn't be so sure. The government has shown that they are prepared to do almost anything to maintain house prices for fear of what will happen if prices collapse. Obviously there is a limit to how long the plates can be kept spinning, and when they do eventually fall, all bets are off. Will they still be able to honour those index-linked saving certificates of yours? Who knows. If you can buy a house outright or with just a small mortgage, I'd say it's probably safer than holding savings. I wouldn't take out a big mortgage to buy though.

..Leading to this.

Assuming rates don't stay low for ever ( a la Japan) and rise at some time, thats going to wipe a lot of people out. Masses. If that happens, I would now say its most likely we would see some kind of debt forgiveness to keep people in their homes. Thats what a majority of policies have been aimed at so far. (Low rates, SMI etc).

I'm very much leaning on the side of buying outright as large as I can and just saying to hell with it. Yes, I may lose some money, but as that money is earmarked to buy a house its not going to be a complete loss. I'm getting more and more twitchy about keeping money in banks or shares or anything else as time goes on.

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As much as I like the HPC site, its main promise is yet to materialise (it's now been 8 years guys!). The crash is yet to happen (if ever). Whatever falls we're seeing now they don't deserve to be called a proper crash. They are too slow, too small and take too long (and don't tend to happen in many good areas anyway!).

Looking objectively at some of the posts now (I joined this site in 2005), there's been a lot of denial and wishful thinking over those years.

However, was well-informed fact-based wishful thinking, and well-informed fact-based denial, I hasten to add... (which makes it even more frustrating!).

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Given the behaviour of our and other governments, what makes you so sure that the value of your savings will hold up any better than the price of houses?

Edit: Personally, I find it something of a relief that I'm no longer playing a game of cat and mouse where I'm the mouse and the cat is making up the rules of the game as we go along!

Plastic bear FUD

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For once I think the indicies are genuinely reflecting a housing rally. The phoney rally of 2009-2010 saw similar gains, but absolutely no volume. There was plenty for sale back then and very little selling.

Stock sold is in the region of 30% in my area, I have not seen such a high ratio since 2007. Back in 2008 it appeared to be below 5%, and the so called rally of 09/10 about 10% of stock sold.

Edited by crashmonitor

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As much as I like the HPC site, its main promise is yet to materialise (it's now been 8 years guys!). The crash is yet to happen (if ever). Whatever falls we're seeing now they don't deserve to be called a proper crash. They are too slow, too small and take too long (and don't tend to happen in many good areas anyway!).

Looking objectively at some of the posts now (I joined this site in 2005), there's been a lot of denial and wishful thinking over those years.

However, was well-informed fact-based wishful thinking, and well-informed fact-based denial, I hasten to add... (which makes it even more frustrating!).

You're having a laugh. £400Bn of funny money and a desire to see lax lending at every level in media and Government, and still they cannot prevent the inevitable slide in most parts of the country. In purchasing power terms, housing has done very poorly indeed over the last six years. The fact it is still expensive in relation to wages ought to tell you that the slide will continue for many years yet. Real wages back to the nineties, and that's where property prices ought to be too.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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