Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
interestrateripoff

Ofgem Warns Danger Of Power Shortages Has Increased

Recommended Posts

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23081695

The danger of power shortages in the UK by the middle of the decade has risen, according to industry regulator Ofgem.

Spare power production capacity could fall as low as 2% in two years' time, increasing the risk of blackouts.

More investment in power generation and other action is needed to protect consumers, Ofgem said.

"Ofgem's analysis indicates a faster than anticipated tightening of electricity margins toward the middle of this decade," it said in a report.

These reports keep coming out every few months although they normally wait for winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that BBC has it sandwiched between stories about Mandela and Lawrence - nice to know what our priorities are.

I'm sure our renewable energy salesmen will be along in a moment to tell us how their windmills will save us.

Edited by Goat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes... but our political class lives in world where the important thing is not to be wrong-footed by the opposition for tomorrow's headlines.

In this world, the lights always stay on (because they always have done), food is always in the shops (because it always has been), any problem is merely one of presentation and bad things only ever happen overseas.

Let's face it, they came close to hysteria when there were a few riots.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that BBC has it sandwiched between stories about Mandela and Lawrence - nice to know what our priorities are.

I'm sure our renewable energy salesmen will be along in a moment to tell us how their windmills will save us.

They don't seem to do much for endangered species!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/10146081/Twitchers-flocking-to-see-rare-bird-saw-it-killed-by-wind-turbine.html

talk about hoisted by your own petard...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ofgem are like the Bankrupt of England. They love to "warn" as if they are totally detached from the situation they are warning about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's OK! I have a Tilley lamp, and a wind-up gramophone! :huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the major producers... Powergen I think, is closing down one of its gas fired power stations because it's not profitable. It spends a lot of time idling when green energy is on stream. For various reasons they aren't allowed to quadruple prices when it is used and there is no alternative, so it's just not viable.

(The main reason they can't raise the prices is there are regulations stopping them... mostly because if they could then people would see why wind farms aren't viable without hydro to match.)

Edited by RufflesTheGuineaPig

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest eight

Ofgem are like the Bankrupt of England. They love to "warn" as if they are totally detached from the situation they are warning about.

What are they telling me for? I did my bit when I paid the bills.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here we have a map of third world countries ( in green ).

We're going south alright. When they start rationing the electricity we'll know we've truly arrived.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's OK! I have a Tilley lamp, and a wind-up gramophone! :huh:

You'll need a wind up computer to keep reading HPC. There is never a Trevor Baylis around when you need one.

Edited by Secure Tenant

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the major producers... Powergen I think, is closing down one of its gas fired power stations because it's not profitable. It spends a lot of time idling when green energy is on stream. For various reasons they aren't allowed to quadruple prices when it is used and there is no alternative, so it's just not viable.

(The main reason they can't raise the prices is there are regulations stopping them... mostly because if they could then people would see why wind farms aren't viable without hydro to match.)

Not just powergen. Centrica have closed 2 of their gas-fired power stations citing wind-generators getting "privileged" access to the electricity market (normal suppliers are asked to shut down generation if supply is exceeding demand. However, wind generators are allowed to continue generating into an oversupplied grid). Several gas power stations have been shutting down in Germany for the same reason, but market distortion is even worse there, due to larger quantities of installed wind and solar (plus george osbourne's "carbon tax" stabilizer/escalator further distorting CO2 market within the UK, pushing all the market volatility into continental Europe, mainly Germany).

The other issue has been rapidly rising gas prices in the UK, together with plummeting coal prices. Even during last Winter, many gas fired plants were idle, as coal took the strain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The eventual result will be rolling blackouts in a years time, which will cause energy intensive manufacturing to jump ship to, well, anywhere.

I've been shouting about this on here you years, but no one listens.

Won't happen they say, government won't allow it.

Too late now, we can't avoid it.

Best we can do is mitigate.

Extended the life of what we can, shoot all the nimbies in the face in front of their families and build like crazy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not just powergen. Centrica have closed 2 of their gas-fired power stations citing wind-generators getting "privileged" access to the electricity market (normal suppliers are asked to shut down generation if supply is exceeding demand. However, wind generators are allowed to continue generating into an oversupplied grid). Several gas power stations have been shutting down in Germany for the same reason, but market distortion is even worse there, due to larger quantities of installed wind and solar (plus george osbourne's "carbon tax" stabilizer/escalator further distorting CO2 market within the UK, pushing all the market volatility into continental Europe, mainly Germany).

The other issue has been rapidly rising gas prices in the UK, together with plummeting coal prices. Even during last Winter, many gas fired plants were idle, as coal took the strain.

But supply must always exceed demand if your going to have a system that can comfortably cover the highest possible demands on cold winter days. That means that some plant must always be idle, and these power stations will be the ones with the highest marginal cost of production, i.e. gas and coal. It would make no sense to shut down wind generators or nuclear power stations with their very small marginal costs. That's why wind generators and nuclear power stations are almost always allowed to continue generating when demand is low. If this is a problem, then someone needs to rethink the way generation capacity is financed.

Edit: I note that as I write we have been importing as much electricity as possible from France over the last 24 hours, despite electricity demand being relatively low. You could just as well blame the closure of gas fired plants on French electricity imports. Why single out wind farms?

Edited by snowflux

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is where demand side management comes in. Should the poor masses have the lights on at night with the curtains closed.. they should be resting for the next day of work, not wasting energy and causing rising carbon emissions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is where demand side management comes in. Should the poor masses have the lights on at night with the curtains closed.. they should be resting for the next day of work, not wasting energy and causing rising carbon emissions.

.. but the chances are that their fridges and freezers would be quite happy waiting a few hours to come back on. And they represent around a third of overall domestic demand. Never mind things like washing machines, tumble driers, immersion heaters..

With modern bulbs and appliances, actual consumer use (lights, TVs, computers, chargers etc) barely registers. The only tricky things are kitchen appliances - kettles, ovens, microwaves and toasters - and the odd high power appliance like hoovers and irons.

Would it help if instead of 'Smart Metering' we said 'Economy 7 Mk. II'?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But supply must always exceed demand if your going to have a system that can comfortably cover the highest possible demands on cold winter days. That means that some plant must always be idle, and these power stations will be the ones with the highest marginal cost of production, i.e. gas and coal. It would make no sense to shut down wind generators or nuclear power stations with their very small marginal costs. That's why wind generators and nuclear power stations are almost always allowed to continue generating when demand is low. If this is a problem, then someone needs to rethink the way generation capacity is financed.

Edit: I note that as I write we have been importing as much electricity as possible from France over the last 24 hours, despite electricity demand being relatively low. You could just as well blame the closure of gas fired plants on French electricity imports. Why single out wind farms?

It's strange that a electricity market based on short term profit maximization fails to deliver low prices and long term reliability.

Well, strange if you are an economics professor. Less so otherwise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How has the move to LED lighting affected consumption of electricity? I thought lighting accounted for around 15% of residential electiricty consumption, that component must be dropping like a stone.

Eg my gaff has around 25 GU10 or MR16 bulb sockets, which were all filled with the conventional 50W spotlights when I moved in, but I replaced them all with LED varieties consuming about 4W each. Although they are never all on, the 'installed capacity' for consumption has dropped from about 1.25kW to 100W. Added to flourescent tube bulbs, which are old hat now, hasn;t domestic energy consumption seen a decent bite taken out of it compared to a decade ago?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How has the move to LED lighting affected consumption of electricity? I thought lighting accounted for around 15% of residential electiricty consumption, that component must be dropping like a stone.

AFAIK LED lighting is still very much in the minority. Keep meaning to look into it though, hopefully I'll be able to almost entirely skip those stupid CFL bulbs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AFAIK LED lighting is still very much in the minority. Keep meaning to look into it though, hopefully I'll be able to almost entirely skip those stupid CFL bulbs.

The CFL bulbs are well worth skipping. LEDs are still fairly pricey but the payback period (assuming they last as long as claimed, another disappointing aspect of CFLs) makes them well worth it, and that's improving all the time of course, from both ends.

Costco do a two pack of 35W GU10 replacements for about £14 IIRC, doubtless you could get them cheaper elsewhere. Chumpus Rex wrote a brilliant post on which sort to look out for, and which to avoid, which I can't find anymore unfortunately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
hasn;t domestic energy consumption seen a decent bite taken out of it compared to a decade ago?

I think it's flat-lined.

Everybody has more gadgets these days. And a big flatscreen tellys drinks a fair bit of juice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The increase in 'home' cannabis production has probably increased demand for power (and 'erb). Does the government have any possible alternative fuel resources it could exploit...fracked if I know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.