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olliegog

Mse Look Forward To The Next 'boom'

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Think i posted there many moons ago. Dont even remember my username now though.

Where will the next boom come from. Rates cant go lower. Deposits have been whittled down to 5% again. Wages arent exactly booming.

Maybe theres some foreign money out their, but China seem to be having their own problems, which will mean less money headed over here.

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Well, we had a boom in the 1980s with average mortgage rates at 8%

And we had a boom in the 2000s with average mortgage rates at 5%

So, why not another boom with average rates at 2%?

That's, my worry anyway!

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That is the plan they want you to think their bailout actions will create higher house price rises....they need people to think that they need to buy and continue moving otherwise they would miss the boat and then everything would grind to a halt, that would be no good for progress now would it? ;)

Edited by winkie

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I like the suggestion by McTroll that the only thing preventing a surge in house sales is the crunch in lending... It could never be the fact that asking prices are way too high?

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McTroll has made nearly 15,000 posts on MSE -- thank God we missed them.

I'm guessing you mean this guy (HAMISH_MCTAVISH)

It really doesn't work that way.

The cause of price rises is simple, it's when demand for property exceeds supply of property, so rising prices must then exclude a sufficient number of people from buying that demand and supply regain equilibrium.

Increasing the quantity of available credit will enable more people to buy, which is a good thing.

It will likely also increase prices from today's artificially lowered levels, but this is also a good thing as higher prices will then attract more people to sell, and cause more houses to be built, so supply of houses will increase as well.

It is not a coincidence that the number of people able to buy, now that prices are lower and interest rates are also lower, is only half what it was in 2007.

Prices today are artifically low apparently. Bloke's an obvious legend. I recognise the name turnbull from various newspaper comment sections as well. I bet those two get on like a house on fire.

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Well, we had a boom in the 1980s with average mortgage rates at 8%

And we had a boom in the 2000s with average mortgage rates at 5%

So, why not another boom with average rates at 2%?

That's, my worry anyway!

1980s was the rush before the end of double miras(i think that`s what they are called) and relatively cheap houses compared to wages

2000s If you got a pulse we will lend you what you want no questions asked ( see Eric) so don't miss the boat

2% overpriced assets stagnant wages all the basics ( food /energy) going up in price the only way for interest rates to go is up, very littel job security,it don't paint a pretty picture

The only thing that worries me is the fact there are many places away from the south east/London that will give good yields for BTL compared to any other investment if they are cash buyers

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1980s was the rush before the end of double miras(i think that`s what they are called) and relatively cheap houses compared to wages

2000s If you got a pulse we will lend you what you want no questions asked ( see Eric) so don't miss the boat

2% overpriced assets stagnant wages all the basics ( food /energy) going up in price the only way for interest rates to go is up, very littel job security,it don't paint a pretty picture

The only thing that worries me is the fact there are many places away from the south east/London that will give good yields for BTL compared to any other investment if they are cash buyers

the boom in the 1980s was mainly in the South East too.

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The boom will come from the government giving money for deposits (Help to Buy). However, I dont see this lasting for long, as USA interest rates will lead to higher rates here, and I can see the taxpayer taking a loss on those deposits.

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The boom will come from the government giving money for deposits (Help to Buy). However, I dont see this lasting for long, as USA interest rates will lead to higher rates here, and I can see the taxpayer taking a loss on those deposits.

Ther will always be some that think they are being "given" money just like some thought shared equity was a good idea but my bet is most will see HTB for what it is shared equity with the added bonus of paying interest on the governments share if you cant pay it back in the five years

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I gave up on the property forums on MSE long ago, partly because of perma-bulls shouting down any opposing views, and also a decision by the management to put the house price discussion forums in a hard to get to place. I stick to the Old Style forum now which has some good discussion on thrift and frugal living, if you're into that kind of thing.

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I'm guessing you mean this guy (HAMISH_MCTAVISH)

Prices today are artifically low apparently. Bloke's an obvious legend. I recognise the name turnbull from various newspaper comment sections as well. I bet those two get on like a house on fire.

Ah yes, Turnbull2000. He used to be a "good news" troll who posted links to any news article that predicted rising house prices, he'd find a couple every day if my memory serves me well.

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Ah yes, Turnbull2000. He used to be a "good news" troll who posted links to any news article that predicted rising house prices, he'd find a couple every day if my memory serves me well.

He eventually made it onto my list a few years ago, but he often used clever camouflage to hide his real purpose on the forum. For me that was to demoralise non owners. Plenty of others still here, including older homeowners who don't want to see the value of their homes fall in value, but even sneakier about how they go about things.

Even if you're subsidising the tenant to the tune of a hundred or so quid a month, the possibility of eventually owning the property outright and receiving a rental income throughout retirement actually seems pretty attractive to me.

ect http://www.housepric...opic=49791&st=0

ect http://www.housepric...howtopic=127681

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He eventually made it onto my list a few years ago, but he often used clever camouflage to hide his real purpose on the forum. For me that was to demoralise non owners. Plenty of others still here, including older homeowners who don't want to see the value of their homes fall in value, but even sneakier about how they go about things.

ect http://www.housepric...opic=49791&st=0

ect http://www.housepric...howtopic=127681

That would include the sadly trolls... "I would really like to see house prices fall, but sadly, because of blah, blah, blah, blah, it looks like they never will".

The forum is crawling with them, along with the unfortunately and I'm a bear but trolls.

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That would include the sadly trolls... "I would really like to see house prices fall, but sadly, because of blah, blah, blah, blah, it looks like they never will".

The forum is crawling with them, along with the unfortunately and I'm a bear but trolls.

Don't forget the...Am I mad for buying....I don't want to buy but I will....etc. crowd.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Well, we had a boom in the 1980s with average mortgage rates at 8%

And we had a boom in the 2000s with average mortgage rates at 5%

So, why not another boom with average rates at 2%?

That's, my worry anyway!

The 80`s one was concentrated in London? The 2000`s one was a one off credit to the masses event which obviously can`t be repeated because the damage is bringing the world to it`s economic knees? Everyone who had the positive sentiment for HPI is more or less tied into their debt now, so I can`t see where another boom could come from? No money + Negative sentiment = HPC, throw in everything that is happening in the markets and it could be brutal for many?The game now is just about who is going to take the hit, and things could move fast if they lose control of borrowing costs?

Edited by dances with sheeple

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The best way for the banks to recapitalize might be to sell off all those assets they are sat on.

You know, the ones where people have put down a 30% deposit or built up equity over the last 5 years by over-paying.

I'd hate to be a home mortgage owner.

(EDIT: Updated for accuracy )

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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The best way for the banks to recapitalize might be to sell off all those assets they are sat on.

You know, the ones where people have put down a 30% deposit or built up equity over the last 5 years by over-paying.

I'd hate to be a home owner.

One wonders what happens with the stock of loans subject to forbearance, and their impact on the ability of banks to recapitalise. What was it, something like 8% of loans are in some sort of arrears IIRC? Many will not be hugely problematic, but others certainly will be.

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One wonders what happens with the stock of loans subject to forbearance, and their impact on the ability of banks to recapitalise. What was it, something like 8% of loans are in some sort of arrears IIRC? Many will not be hugely problematic, but others certainly will be.

Don't worry, the kind people who put down their 30% deposit have very kindly covered this.

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Ahh... Bought-at-peak McTroll... Still fighting the good fight is he?#

That one could have gone around the world on a fancy cruise for all the equity he's lost in his Jan 2008 "investment".

eDQmWZc.jpg

Lol @ grounds keeper Willie diving downwards on that graph! :lol:

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Property is always a good long term investment for a cash buyer.

The important part is LONG TERM.

Simply because of inflation.

What?

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Property is always a good long term investment for a cash buyer.

The important part is LONG TERM.

Simply because of inflation.

The problem being inflation cannot go on for ever, otherwise we will all be millionaires at some point.

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Why not? IIRC Cardinal Wolsey was only worth £12,000 when he was around (may be £120,000) in 1500s .... still the richest man in England. Many people in UK are millionaires at one time this was a lot of money and now it will buy you a flat in London.

And next year?

zimbabwe-currency-1.jpg

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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