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I've had a look in my crystal ball and thrown my runes on the floor and I am getting a vibe of panic and confusion growing this weekend. It will manifest itself in China over the weekend begin in Asia and by the time the US markets open they will waterfall 5 to 7 percent.

I am going to blame this weekend's super moon if I am wrong. Things are afoot.

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I've had a look in my crystal ball and thrown my runes on the floor and I am getting a vibe of panic and confusion growing this weekend. It will manifest itself in China over the weekend begin in Asia and by the time the US markets open they will waterfall 5 to 7 percent.

I am going to blame this weekend's super moon if I am wrong. Things are afoot.

FTSE recovery now locked in. 6500 by next weekend.

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What are the papers saying?

Month or so back when the NIKKEI was closing in on 16,000 the Sunday times said BUY BUY BUY. Since then its dropped 20% and the yen has weakened a little.

So whatever the sunday times says, its probably prudent to assume the opposite.

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I've had a look in my crystal ball and thrown my runes on the floor and I am getting a vibe of panic and confusion growing this weekend. It will manifest itself in China over the weekend begin in Asia and by the time the US markets open they will waterfall 5 to 7 percent.

I am going to blame this weekend's super moon if I am wrong. Things are afoot.

I will still be going for a walk.....whatever happens. ;)

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Nah, by next weekend the financial sites will be full of articles writing about 1987. Read the tea leaves.

1987 is now classified as an adjustment rather than a full-on crash. The FTSE 100 was higher at the end of the year than it had been at the beginning. It just went up and down a lot in the middle of the year. 2008 is the closest we have had to a real stock market crash.

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I've had a look in my crystal ball and thrown my runes on the floor and I am getting a vibe of panic and confusion growing this weekend. It will manifest itself in China over the weekend begin in Asia and by the time the US markets open they will waterfall 5 to 7 percent.

I am going to blame this weekend's super moon if I am wrong. Things are afoot.

There are a number of events that seem to be occurring. Maybe we are entering a new and more unstable phase - it does seem like it :

i) US economy supposedly recovering.

ii) Impact of Abenomics in japan.

iii) Brazil riots and protests.

iv) China banking issues and economy on the downturn.

v) Protests in Turkey.

vi) Issues regarding the civil war in Syria.

vii) Indian economic problems.

Europe isn't kicking off particularly at the moment. Maybe that will change. A lot of the economic issues seem underpinned by some interesting indicators that have been posted on other threads. Poor last year crop production leading to increased food prices. Issues with steel demand. Baltic dry index.

IMO there are just too many major things looking like they may kick off out there at the moment. The more there are, the higher the probability one will.

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1987 is now classified as an adjustment rather than a full-on crash. The FTSE 100 was higher at the end of the year than it had been at the beginning. It just went up and down a lot in the middle of the year. 2008 is the closest we have had to a real stock market crash.

Exactly.

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Don't you think these sorts of things have always happened?

I would give you loads of examples but I'm in danger of boring even myself.

Japanese market seems to be going through loads of convulsions. Sooner or later they wont be containable.

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British Sunday morning TV & Radio will no doubt be focussed on some story only of interest to politicans and journos. US Sunday morning TV will be talking about the stock markets and what Ben said this week. If we are lucky they will have wound themselves up into a panic about mid morning US time.

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Yes, but not in the magnitude and number they are happening at the moment.

What's different I think is the impact of factors in the BRICS.

We've shifted from US hegemony a decade or so ago, to a multipolar world - biggest factor being China but also Russia, India, Brazil and to a lesser extent places like Turkey.

This phase seems to reflect the wheels starting to come off in those countries as part of the long overdue global rebalancing.

They're in danger of becoming overwhelmed by domestic pressures.

The big one of course will be China, but I think in Europe it'll spill over into Germany in due course too.............We're looking at fundamental changes in the business models of these surplus countries.

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"Sell in May and go away".

The Lord Mayor's Dinner usually marks the start of the holiday season in the city. The juniors & skeleton crew left running the show are handling negligible volumes.

Nothing to see here.....

If the sell-off had been a limited response to Bernanke's lies I'd be inclined to agree. After all, none of the central banks has actually stopped printing. China is the difference. There's nothing Benny, Abe or Carnage can do to hold up the Chinese shadow banking system. A collapse in Chinese property would be the mother and father of exogenous shocks. Chinese pai gow gamblers would be forced to liquidate positions abroad to meet margin calls at home on a grand scale.

Have the Krugmanite wreckers blown up one Ponzi too many? 1600 on the S&P looks like the key support, if we close below that then things can get very messy, very quickly.

.

Edited by zugzwang

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I (an inveterate equities holder through thick and thin) have started fretting over the China thing. That has the potential to be a global economy killer.

But what to do with the money is the perennial question. So I'll sit on my hands again and hope that my 40% cash & deposits survive bank failures etc.

I'll be a cautious equities buyer at FTSE100 <=5650, though - and an eager one at sub 5000. Probably.

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If the sell-off had been a limited response to Bernanke's lies I'd be inclined to agree. After all, none of the central banks has actually stopped printing. China is the difference. There's nothing Benny, Abe or Carnage can do to hold up the Chinese shadow banking system. A collapse in Chinese property would be the mother and father of exogenous shocks. Chinese pai gow gamblers would be forced to liquidate positions abroad to meet margin calls at home on a grand scale.

Have the Krugmanite wreckers blown up one Ponzi too many? 1600 on the S&P looks like the key support, if we close below that then things can get very messy, very quickly.

.

Interesting post. Why would ABC want to hold up China in the short or long term? I don't follow your thinking

Also, I am unconvinced that the stock market meaningfully reflects the real economy anymore. If it ever did.

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I (an inveterate equities holder through thick and thin) have started fretting over the China thing. That has the potential to be a global economy killer.

But what to do with the money is the perennial question. So I'll sit on my hands again and hope that my 40% cash & deposits survive bank failures etc.

I'll be a cautious equities buyer at FTSE100 <=5650, though - and an eager one at sub 5000. Probably.

BAT at 4% divi yield at the moment. Compared to 2% elsewhere it looks good. Even if the share falls 50% I'll still get an income.

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BAT at 4% divi yield at the moment. Compared to 2% elsewhere it looks good. Even if the share falls 50% I'll still get an income.

I don't buy fags (or rather, I do - I just don't buy shares in drug dealers). Not entirely for ethical reasons; I reckon the anti-smoking regulations will spread globally and, over the long run, put the kibosh on the sort of nice steady divi flow that I want to see me into and through my dotage.

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What's different I think is the impact of factors in the BRICS.

We've shifted from US hegemony a decade or so ago, to a multipolar world - biggest factor being China but also Russia, India, Brazil and to a lesser extent places like Turkey.

This phase seems to reflect the wheels starting to come off in those countries as part of the long overdue global rebalancing.

They're in danger of becoming overwhelmed by domestic pressures.

The big one of course will be China, but I think in Europe it'll spill over into Germany in due course too.............We're looking at fundamental changes in the business models of these surplus countries.

I agree. 30 years or so ago what happened in China was not so relevant to the west but now with globalisation everyones fate is interlinked.

This made interesting reading :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22403719

Although Egypt is a minnow as far as the world economy is concerned I think it is a good example of how pressure is starting to rise all over in the developing world.

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I agree. 30 years or so ago what happened in China was not so relevant to the west but now with globalisation everyones fate is interlinked.

This made interesting reading :

http://www.bbc.co.uk...e-east-22403719

Although Egypt is a minnow as far as the world economy is concerned I think it is a good example of how pressure is starting to rise all over in the developing world.

The pressure is on these autocratic regimes to start sharing the proceeds of growth with the workers. It remains to be seen whether they're prepared to do this, allow savings rates to fall, consume more of their own output and so on...... it has to go hand in hand with relinquishing control too. We certainly seem to be moving towards some sort of inflection point (as Soros would call it).

Interesting to see BoE has signed the £21bn yuan swap agreement with China today just before Merv leaves. Clearly they're trying to deepen offshore liquidity as they tighten domestically.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23020718

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  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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