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Output Costs Of Sovereign Crises: Some Empirical Estimates

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http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/workingpapers/wp362.pdf

Output costs of sovereign crises: some empirical estimates

Abstract

Avoiding the broader output losses to their economy is likely to be the key reason why governments avoid debt crises. Despite this, there has been little work that seeks to quantify output losses associated with such crises. This paper seeks to fill this gap. We find that debt crisis episodes last for long — on average by about ten years — and are associated with large output losses (of at least 5% per year). Sovereign crises rarely occur in isolation — more often than not they are associated with currency crises or banking crises or both. It is the occurrence of a potent cocktail of ‘twin’ or ‘triple’ crises that is strongly associated with output losses rather than sovereign crisis per se.

February 2009

Working Paper from the BoE.

It would appear optimistically we are only half way through, but as the UK still hasn't corrected it's bubble we may not have even passed go yet.

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http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/workingpapers/wp362.pdf

February 2009

Working Paper from the BoE.

It would appear optimistically we are only half way through, but as the UK still hasn't corrected it's bubble we may not have even passed go yet.

We live in a global world. How much was the average house in the Uk in dollars in 2007-8

How much are they today?

Bubbles burst but they can also be deflated by other people paying the bill

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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