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zugzwang

Uk Cpi Back Up To 2.7%

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Job No. 1 for Kid Carnage may be a letter of apology explaining why inflation is over 3.0%!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/06/18/uk-britain-inflation-idUKBRE95H06L20130618

(Reuters) - British consumer price inflation rebounded by more than expected in May due to a record rise in air fares and higher fuel prices, raising questions about whether April's seven-month low was simply a blip.

The Office for National Statistics said annual CPI rose to 2.7 percent in May from April's 2.4 percent, above economists' forecasts of 2.6 percent in a Reuters poll.

Last month the Bank of England forecast that inflation would fall faster than it previously thought, but Tuesday's data raises the prospect that it may take longer to return to its 2 percent target if it marks the start of a trend.

Economists had expected some rise in inflation this month as there had been a sharp fall in the annual rate of inflation in May 2012, but the statistical effect of this was boosted by a record rise in air fares for the time of year.

Air fares rose by 22 percent between April and May, the biggest jump between these two months since comparable records started in 2001.

Nonetheless, many economists still believe the overall outlook for price rises is more muted than a few months ago, due to stronger sterling and lower commodity prices.

This potentially gives incoming the Bank Governor Mark Carney more scope to take action to stimulate the economy when he takes over from Mervyn King, who retires at the end of June.

Last month the central bank forecast inflation would peak at just over 3 percent later this year before falling back to 2 percent by early 2015.

Separate figures published by the ONS on Tuesday also showed a relatively muted outlook for consumer price inflation. Factory gate prices - which act as a leading indicator for some parts of CPI - rose by an annual 1.2 percent, a smaller increase than economists had forecast.

But Britain's unusually cold weather this year may push up food prices, with the ONS reporting a 19.2 percent annual rise in the cost of home-grown food, and potatoes and fresh vegetables particularly hit.

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RPI up to 3.1% from 2.9% for all you index-linked cert holders. You have to dig around a little to find the RPI figure; they've become rather coy about publicising it these days.

Edited by snowflux

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19%+ increase in home grown food costs.Thats some serious inflation.There are several empty allotments near me and im thinking about getting one and the other half getting another.

I had one 10 years ago but it wasn't worth keeping when fresh veg was 20p etc and I didn't have enough time then.Now a cabbage is £1 it could save some serious money.

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19%+ increase in home grown food costs.Thats some serious inflation.There are several empty allotments near me and im thinking about getting one and the other half getting another.

I had one 10 years ago but it wasn't worth keeping when fresh veg was 20p etc and I didn't have enough time then.Now a cabbage is £1 it could save some serious money.

There is going to be some serious food inflation where that came from due to the bad weather over the last year or 2...

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19%+ increase in home grown food costs.Thats some serious inflation.There are several empty allotments near me and im thinking about getting one and the other half getting another.

I had one 10 years ago but it wasn't worth keeping when fresh veg was 20p etc and I didn't have enough time then.Now a cabbage is £1 it could save some serious money.

Three years ago a 10 pole plot on the allotment I use cost c.£60pa. Now it's c.£130

Edited by Nuggets Mahoney

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19%+ increase in home grown food costs.Thats some serious inflation.There are several empty allotments near me and im thinking about getting one and the other half getting another.

I had one 10 years ago but it wasn't worth keeping when fresh veg was 20p etc and I didn't have enough time then.Now a cabbage is £1 it could save some serious money.

Buy potatoes in a general run-of-the-mill supermarket they are at least £1 KG..........nobody has to pay that price, we all make our own, or pay our own inflation rate.......they offer it, we pay it, we can't therefore complain. ;)

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Largest upward contribution came from transport (air fares and motor fuel) and clothing

Largest downward contribution came from food (Tesco struggling probably)

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/cpi/consumer-price-indices/may-2013/index.html

That is good more people holidaying in the UK......or have the air fares risen to off-set the cheapness of renting a holiday property in Europe now? ;)

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Three years ago a 10 pole plot on the allotment I use cost c.£60pa. Now it's c.£130

Is there room enough for 130 cabbages (minimum), just to break even?

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Last month the Bank of England forecast that inflation would fall faster than it previously thought, but Tuesday's data raises the prospect that it may take longer to return to its 2 percent target if it marks the start of a trend.

To be fair to the BoE they probably couldn't forecast inflation at the end of the day of the forecast - even using fan charts and all.

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Is there room enough for 130 cabbages (minimum), just to break even?

:lol:

Easy.

That'd be a fair old bit of netting required though.

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Apparently according to Ian McCafferty of the Bank of England this is a success!

What has been learnt by the Bank of England?

You might think that the Monetary Policy Committee would be chastened by its record of failure. But if we return to the speech by Ian McCafferty that I mentioned earlier there seems to be little sign of that.

It is the MPC’s successful track record of low and stable inflation in the decade that preceded the financial crisis that has given the public confidence in our commitment to price stability

There are two main issues with this. Firstly talking of a “successful track record” followed by a “financial crisis” at the least questions whether matters were as successful as all that! After all how did we get a financial crisis?Also “public confidence” does not seem to be something illustrated by the Bank of England’s own research on inflation expectations.

Question 1: Asked to give the current rate of inflation, respondents gave a median answer of 4.5%, compared with 4.4% in February.

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/todays-rise-in-uk-inflation-gives-real-wages-one-more-downwards-push/

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It is the MPC’s successful track record of low and stable inflation in the decade that preceded the financial crisis that has given the public confidence in our commitment to price stability

But the thing about the BoE's remit is that it specifies in actual figures what a successful track record is - it's no longer a matter of opinion. By that remit the BoE failed to meet target for years on end since it was first officially given the job in 1997. If it ever met the target it quickly failed again at the soonest opportunity and it's had to write letter after letter for years on end now why it's failed.

Then there's the financial crisis. Possibly the worst financial crisis in the UK since records began.

Just look at the UK's economy now - and that's "successful" :o

Given a vote on the matter it can be safely said that the public would vote

NO CONFIDENCE.

Edited by billybong

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Three years ago a 10 pole plot on the allotment I use cost c.£60pa. Now it's c.£130

Only if it's council run

Ours is controlled under its own private society. A 10 pole allotment (which I have) costs 35 quid a year.

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The fact their pensions are inflation index rather than capped at a 2% increase per annum tells you all you need to know about their commitment to meet the 2% target. How many employers would continue with people who missed their targets year after year after year?

Have you never met any kind of project manager?

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Only if it's council run

Ours is controlled under its own private society. A 10 pole allotment (which I have) costs 35 quid a year.

Some of ours cost £1 a year.Others cost £5 but that includes mains water.They have also just opened a really good community garden.You get small raised plots for £2 a year.The plots are only 20 feet by 6 feet but there is also a large shared greenhouse fully planted and large herb garden.Very good for people who cant handle a full allotment.

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Inflate your way out of the mess, that's the kiddie, do it quietly though, and over a decade or more, soon be paid off. I've not looked it up, but how many times did Merv get the figures right? or even near? I see nothing changing in the future, and expect inflation to reach at least 5% by January.

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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