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http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3565

CML headline:

Gross mortgage lending grew by 5% in April, in part due to an increase in remortgage activity, according to new data released today by the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Remortgage activity gained some ground in April while house purchase lending edged down in April compared to March.

The 'in part due to an increase in remortgage activity' should read 'wholly as a result of an increase in remortgage activity'

The y-o-y comparisons show some big increases, especially for FTB numbers (+58% in number, +67% in value) but this if for the same reason last month's showed some big decreases- the impending end of the stamp duty concession.

In m-o-m terms all indices are flat or declining bar remortgaging activity, which grew by 8% in number and 10% in value. It's fair to point out that the m-o-m comparisons for once are being done of figures which have been revised upwards not down, so this makes them look worse than they are.

FTB numbers, home mover numbers and the value of loans attributed to these two groups are all numbers which either declined or at best stayed flat m-o-m.

So the story remains that lending is subdued. Did someone say Spring bounce..?

Feb/March threads:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=189636

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=190348

Edited by cheeznbreed

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FTBs now waiting for Help2Buy v.2.

Free money, innit?

More likely that FTBs are looking at the insane asking prices and thinking about emigrating.

£77K in Northampton:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-26632740.html

£78K in florida:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-39277600.html

Anyone not planning on leaving is mad.

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FTBs now waiting for Help2Buy v.2.

Free money, innit?

The weight of expectation.. you'l be able to hear the collective sigh across the nation as George spells it out (as it stands).

Received a letter back from my MP this week, with a reply from a Treasury official. He thinks HTB is a great idea too.

I replied with the following:

Sir,

Many thanks for your letter of 7th June enclosing a response from Sajid Javid to my concerns regarding the "Help to Buy" scheme.

In short, I think we'll have to agree to differ. It's clear that this Government via this policy regards the preservation of high housing costs as a virtue, something I find absurd.

The reason I contacted you originally is because your blog has made no mention of your view of the scheme. That remains the case. You'll see a comment from me on your news item summarising the budget dated 20th March. Are you are unwilling to support this policy publicly?

In the period since I last wrote, the Help to Buy scheme has continued to attract widespread and severe criticism from disparate sources. I'll leave you with this, from Societe Generale analyst Albert Edwards:

"I believe it truly is a moronic policy that stands head and shoulders above most of the stupid economic policies I have seen implemented during my 30 years in this business"

Yours sincerely,

cheeznbreed

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Also worth pointing out that the CML figs lag the BBA ones, but the agreement between them is good. Here's the BBA's David Dook's take on their April figures for high street banking, released 3 weeks ago:

“Low consumer confidence is depressing demand for new borrowing and consumers are continuing to save, with deposits rising by 5.5% over the year to April.”

With the Help to Buy- Equity Loan scheme for newbuilds providing a release valve for many pent-up demanders, one has to wonder what the sale prospects are for 'used' homes this summer, especially those that might pique the interests of FTBs.

Very bleak, in the main, I'd humbly suggest.

http://www.bba.org.uk/statistics/article/april-2013-figures-for-the-high-street-banks/high-street-banking/

Edited by cheeznbreed

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As rates go lower and lower, people hang on for lower again - if they want a load of new mortgage business, put a .25% increase in at the next BOE meeting

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As rates go lower and lower, people hang on for lower again - if they want a load of new mortgage business, put a .25% increase in at the next BOE meeting

I like your thinking :D

Unfortunately I fear they are apt to screw savers/taxpayers more and more to get their crazy scheme to fly (if it ever will)

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while house purchase lending edged down in April compared to March.

Yeah, the taxpayer has got a big chunk of that market. The regular mortgage lenders (who still charge interest of sorts) can't compete with that :angry: Bad money drives out good, and now worse money drives out bad :angry:

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Yeah, the taxpayer has got a big chunk of that market. The regular mortgage lenders (who still charge interest of sorts) can't compete with that :angry: Bad money drives out good, and now worse money drives out bad :angry:

i keep seeing state owned banks with signs in the window saying something along the lives of....we approve 95% of mortgage applications.

how can that be if the banks are being sensible in their lending?

there may be trouble ahead....

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i keep seeing state owned banks with signs in the window saying something along the lives of....we approve 95% of mortgage applications.

how can that be if the banks are being sensible in their lending?

there may be trouble ahead....

Hopefully they mean just applicants who are screened and then allowed to apply and pay the fee. If you're right, then big trouble ahead yet again looks on the cards

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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