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I really feel like I am losing my faith in a HPC happening.

Just been looking at the latest homes magazine in brighton- things seem to be moving again, especially at the upper end of the market and prices in the 1 bed flat area seem to be stuck at the 135k level and have been for a while now.

Really really fed up and feel like I am never going to own my own home or have the settled life that I want - finding it hard to save as its so expensive in brighton on every level and fed up of friends using equity in current homes to buy second homes (know 3 people my age 32 who own 2 houses a piece)- just cant move forward at all as just cant afford anything at all.

Starting to feel like I did miss the boat and thats it- FTB out of the market full stop with houses being bought by people with equity to rent out.

Losing my faith a lot now. :(

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Guest consa

I really feel like I am losing my faith in a HPC happening.

Just been looking at the latest homes magazine in brighton- things seem to be moving again, especially at the upper end of the market and prices in the 1 bed flat area seem to be stuck at the 135k level and have been for a while now.

Really really fed up and feel like I am never going to own my own home or have the settled life that I want - finding it hard to save as its so expensive in brighton on every level and fed up of friends using equity in current homes to buy second homes (know 3 people my age 32 who own 2 houses a piece)- just cant move forward at all as just cant afford anything at all.

Starting to feel like I did miss the boat and thats it- FTB out of the market full stop with houses being bought by people with equity to rent out.

Losing my faith a lot now. :(

Go and guy a wet kipper, give yourself a good few slaps around the face with it while shouting "I must be more patient" :)

Oh and if you need more advice give me a shout :lol::lol:

Edited by consa

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I really feel like I am losing my faith in a HPC happening.

Just been looking at the latest homes magazine in brighton- things seem to be moving again, especially at the upper end of the market and prices in the 1 bed flat area seem to be stuck at the 135k level and have been for a while now.

Really really fed up and feel like I am never going to own my own home or have the settled life that I want - finding it hard to save as its so expensive in brighton on every level and fed up of friends using equity in current homes to buy second homes (know 3 people my age 32 who own 2 houses a piece)- just cant move forward at all as just cant afford anything at all.

Starting to feel like I did miss the boat and thats it- FTB out of the market full stop with houses being bought by people with equity to rent out.

Losing my faith a lot now. :(

Ask not why you can't afford a place, ask what you can do to afford a place.

:D

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I really feel like I am losing my faith in a HPC happening.

Just been looking at the latest homes magazine in brighton- things seem to be moving again, especially at the upper end of the market and prices in the 1 bed flat area seem to be stuck at the 135k level and have been for a while now.

Really really fed up and feel like I am never going to own my own home or have the settled life that I want - finding it hard to save as its so expensive in brighton on every level and fed up of friends using equity in current homes to buy second homes (know 3 people my age 32 who own 2 houses a piece)- just cant move forward at all as just cant afford anything at all.

Starting to feel like I did miss the boat and thats it- FTB out of the market full stop with houses being bought by people with equity to rent out.

Losing my faith a lot now. :(

Its darkest just before dawn and all that :)

Its going to be increasingly murky with a frenzy of spinning and counter spin until after Christmas and the 1st Qtr if you ask me but this is what I'd expect considering all the increasing downside factors. Bulls will fight until the converging downside factors start to click.

What on earth can push the economy and therefore the housing market further on from this point when the downside risks are becoming increasingly apparent? Its a painful game of patience.

There is going to be fall dawns and bullish rallying points but debt and lagging inflation will out. New paradigm theory really is like trying to converge all optimistic factors through an eye of a needle. Nothing economic can be controlled to such an extent that this is likely IMHO. Fools paradise.

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Ask not why you can't afford a place, ask what you can do to afford a place.

:D

Yes I think there is a healthy trade in organs. Maybe god gave us two kidneys for a reason, must be worth a deposit at least. Maybe you send the mrs out at night to earn the rest??

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Someone on here described an equity crash as a car driving into a brick wall. Quick. Whilst a HPC is a super tanker 5 miles out doing 15 knots and unable to stop before it hits the rocks. It takes an ages to get there but you know the result is going to be no less dissastrous.

Hang on in there you will be able to buy eventually. You never now you might even pick up one of your mates second homes when it gets repossesed. He who laughs last...... ;)

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Just be patient, it'll happen. It's not really happening as slowly as you think if you look at the fall off in HPI over the last year. The funny thing about this HPC is that it's all set up to happen but the fuse remains unlit - rather like a tinder-dry forest just waiting for someone to toss a fag-end from a passing car. There is an amazing viscosity in the financial situation at the moment, but the slide is relentless. Hard to say what will provide the final shove because nothing much is going on besides the odd hurricane, and they aren't here. You might still be sitting there waiting for it to happen a year from now. You could:

a) leave the country, try Germany where property is cheap;

B) buy a bottle of wine and chill out.

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fed up of friends using equity in current homes to buy second homes (know 3 people my age 32 who own 2 houses a piece)- just cant move forward at all as just cant afford anything at all.

Know how you feel mate - the only homeowning old university pal I know bought his in summer 2004 with some money he inherited. I thought he was a mug buying at the top of the market. Now he's used the equity to buy a second property...while the rest of us languish in rental.

But I keep telling myself - if the only people who can afford to buy houses are current homeowners, the whole thing must eventually collapse under its own weight. Either that or this country is returning to feudalism, in which case I will be back to Argentina where I can buy myself a mansion for about 20k.

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What is the obsession with buying?

Why do you feel the need to 'own' (you don't actually own it until it is payed off!) the house you live in, does it make such a huge difference in the quality of your life?

Economically it is not advantageous, no serious economists forecast significant short term increases in house prices, so it is not going to be a good investment. Add this to the overinflated prices meaning that renting is now cheaper than an interest only loan and you have excellent pragmatic reasons not to buy. All this even if you factor out any chance of a HPC.

But don't feel singled out, the British obsession with home ownersip is rampant, in the face of this economics and quality of life are thrown to the wind.

I am about your age, and all my friends have their own houses, but I am not jealous. When/If the HPC crash happens I am not going to loose out, and unless renting prices dramatically increase my fixed costs are lower then theirs. At the moment I am saving much more per month than they are making in capital repayments, the difference is that my assets are liquid, and instantly realiseable. They are also a lot less likely to dramatically fall in value, plus they give me a guaranteed return which is higher than that of the stagnant house market.

So don't be so desperate, look on the bright side and start to wonder why you want a house SO much?

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I really feel like I am losing my faith in a HPC happening.

Just been looking at the latest homes magazine in brighton- things seem to be moving again, especially at the upper end of the market and prices in the 1 bed flat area seem to be stuck at the 135k level and have been for a while now.

Really really fed up and feel like I am never going to own my own home or have the settled life that I want - finding it hard to save as its so expensive in brighton on every level and fed up of friends using equity in current homes to buy second homes (know 3 people my age 32 who own 2 houses a piece)- just cant move forward at all as just cant afford anything at all.

Starting to feel like I did miss the boat and thats it- FTB out of the market full stop with houses being bought by people with equity to rent out.

Losing my faith a lot now. :(

Well then BUY with a 100% mortgage for f*$ks sake and put us out of your misery...decide what your rational analysis of the situation is, have the courage to act on it, and be done with your dilemmas...

sorry if this is harsh.

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I really feel like I am losing my faith in a HPC happening.

Just been looking at the latest homes magazine in brighton- things seem to be moving again, especially at the upper end of the market and prices in the 1 bed flat area seem to be stuck at the 135k level and have been for a while now.

Really really fed up and feel like I am never going to own my own home or have the settled life that I want - finding it hard to save as its so expensive in brighton on every level and fed up of friends using equity in current homes to buy second homes (know 3 people my age 32 who own 2 houses a piece)- just cant move forward at all as just cant afford anything at all.

Starting to feel like I did miss the boat and thats it- FTB out of the market full stop with houses being bought by people with equity to rent out.

Losing my faith a lot now. :(

Now come on, you've been a member since August 2005 just like me.

I don't know how long you might have been lurking before then but really, no sign of a crash in just three months of waiting, it is going to take a bit longer than that.

I think what is really upsetting you is that other people have moved on with their lives so far on a superficial level which may or may not be backed up with real financial gains.

Its going to be a while before you find out whether your friends' decisions to invest in property at this stage were right or not.

Beyond that, as I said in another post, with House Price Inflation at 16-20% in 2004, 2005 was only ever going to be about House Price Inflation slowing down. You can't skip from massive increases to massive falls without this interim period of reduced HPI. During this time some people are going to be reporting stagnation, some will report price rises and others will be reporting price falls and they're all right because the slowdown is happening at a different pace in different parts of the country and certain types of property will always hold their value a bit better than others, some sellers will be more realistic than others.

2006 will be the first point when you will see falls across the country.

You have to realise that this is going to take time not least because it takes time to sell a house! Many people will have spent the last three months waiting for a buyer for their house, unable to understand why they have no offers (I have specific people I know in mind when I say this).

I know how you feel though, I can't afford anything and yet I still have people trying to convince me to buy either by taking out ludicrous mortgages or lying about my salary or whatever.

I really would recommend reserving judgement about a possible crash till about May next year. I know it seems like a long way off but every month you can save a little towards your deposit or solicitors fees or whatever will really help in the long term. By May 2006 people will see that the spring bounce has not materialised and that SIPPS has not saved the housing market and at that point things will turn around. It is also likely by then that the Bank of England will follow the lead of the U.S. and raise interest rates which cause real problems for people who have overstretched themselves.

Remember there is nothing wrong with the market continuing to move, if no one sells any houses then house prices must be recorded as static. Also remember that prices have remained sticky because 2005 has been largely about a slowdown in price rises, it has not been a universal picture of price falls, that really can't happen till next year. If the price of flats is stuck at the £135K level it means they are not rising anymore and certainly not at the rate of 16-20% that they were last year. Prices rises have to slow down before they stagnate and eventually start to fall. No way around it.

Why not come to the HPC meet and make some friends who don't all have multiple properties?

Keep your chin up, there are a lot of us in the same boat (unable to afford to buy). :)

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There are alternatives:

Move out of Brighton to somewhere cheaper?

Mitigate against the worry of interest rate rises etc. with a fixed mortgage (25 years at just over 5% at the cheshire?)

Explore job options to maximise earnings?

I'm in a similar boat, but don't really give too much of a toss as my work/personal circumstances mean I don't want to buy for another couple of years anyway.

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Find a house / flat you like, apply or look at the best mortgage rate you can get and then work out how much this will cost you a month. From the mortgage figure subtract your rent then unless you are saving the full amount each month you can't afford a house.

If you can't afford a house why worry. If you can afford a house buy one (if you thing there will be no house price crash.) No point moaning.

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How much do you want to pay? Put your offer in and you may be pleasantly surprised. Prices ARE dropping and the market IS dead. The EAs, developers, BBC, Nationwide etc. etc. would have us believe otherwise, but the figures are there to see if you look closely. However things aren't happening the same all over the country - some areas are falling more quickly than others and prices are still creeping up elsewhere. But the headline 3.5% is not worth anything. So be patient and use the market to your advantage.

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Yes maybe you just need to change your perspective on life - so you can't afford a house? Not the end of the world...It's only us Brits who are absolutely obsessed with owning property, large parts of the world live all their lives renting - and are none the less happy for it (in fact mostly happier).

I looked at a flat in Brighton 10 years ago for 35K - with garage! Didn't buy...Lost out, missed the 'property boat' in the UK. Hey, I'm still here, the world's still turning and I can still smile. The sun comes up in the morning and goes down at night. My friends who own property are no happier than me.

Stoicism is the key - read some Marcus Aurelias, then chill out. Worrying about something doesn't change the situation - just makes it worse.

Property or no property - happy days! Enjoy!

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Now come on, you've been a member since August 2005 just like me.

I don't know how long you might have been lurking before then but really, no sign of a crash in just three months of waiting, it is going to take a bit longer than that.

I think what is really upsetting you is that other people have moved on with their lives so far on a superficial level which may or may not be backed up with real financial gains.

Its going to be a while before you find out whether your friends' decisions to invest in property at this stage were right or not.

Beyond that, as I said in another post, with House Price Inflation at 16-20% in 2004, 2005 was only ever going to be about House Price Inflation slowing down. You can't skip from massive increases to massive falls without this interim period of reduced HPI. During this time some people are going to be reporting stagnation, some will report price rises and others will be reporting price falls and they're all right because the slowdown is happening at a different pace in different parts of the country and certain types of property will always hold their value a bit better than others, some sellers will be more realistic than others.

2006 will be the first point when you will see falls across the country.

You have to realise that this is going to take time not least because it takes time to sell a house! Many people will have spent the last three months waiting for a buyer for their house, unable to understand why they have no offers (I have specific people I know in mind when I say this).

I know how you feel though, I can't afford anything and yet I still have people trying to convince me to buy either by taking out ludicrous mortgages or lying about my salary or whatever.

I really would recommend reserving judgement about a possible crash till about May next year. I know it seems like a long way off but every month you can save a little towards your deposit or solicitors fees or whatever will really help in the long term. By May 2006 people will see that the spring bounce has not materialised and that SIPPS has not saved the housing market and at that point things will turn around. It is also likely by then that the Bank of England will follow the lead of the U.S. and raise interest rates which cause real problems for people who have overstretched themselves.

Remember there is nothing wrong with the market continuing to move, if no one sells any houses then house prices must be recorded as static. Also remember that prices have remained sticky because 2005 has been largely about a slowdown in price rises, it has not been a universal picture of price falls, that really can't happen till next year. If the price of flats is stuck at the £135K level it means they are not rising anymore and certainly not at the rate of 16-20% that they were last year. Prices rises have to slow down before they stagnate and eventually start to fall. No way around it.

Why not come to the HPC meet and make some friends who don't all have multiple properties?

Keep your chin up, there are a lot of us in the same boat (unable to afford to buy). :)

Hi,

Spot on! People are really getting too impatient, housing markets take a long time to correct. You really can't make any meanigful conclusions for, say, two years, as pointed out. 20% to close 0% during the past year. Even if the VI spin machines go into overdrive, the best they can muster is a stagnation over the coming year but to be honest, by that stage, it will be very difficult to spin it out any further. The cycle goes up, pauses at the market top, then comes down. The day turns to night. The earth spins in it's axis. It's the way of nature.

Look at the headlines for the last crashes, this is the fiercest point of spin in the cycle, the VI's have to try to covince people that a stagnation is occuring and not a market top. Which is pretty useless at this stage of the day, the 1.2 trillion of debt, the poor economy and huge fiscal and trade defecits are just not going away. It's a pyramid scheme at the moment and, like all other pyramid schemes, those at the top are reliant on reaching the pyramid top and extracting money from those at the base. In this instance, transferring several hundred billions of interest only mortgages onto the late entry market suckers. Seriously, think for a minute. Interest only mortgages? They were born in the years of 20% YoY house price rises, that is the only way they are viable, 6-8 times income mortgages as well. They cannot survive in anything other than 15-20% HPI markets. Economics just don't work that way. Never have.

Also, the indices are not scientifically based. Imagine! I did my own research and digging, I would urge you to contact the big two, Halifax and Nationwide. While I am not saying they outwardly lie, they do choose to base their surveys on small market samples, they vary the choice of approvals (not even sales) they include for each survey, they do not allow public or independent scrutiny of their survey methods, the list goes on. I am not really sure where you could get any unbiased market indices for the market. Even the FT one, let's face it, we already know the Times Chief Economic Analyst is Bull biased beyond comprehension, I can't believe that a media group that is all but VI is suddenly going to be happy with a sister publication not toeing the line. Look at the headlines for the last crash, all these sources were trying to spin the line "market bottom reached", "Market set to boom again", deep into the last cycle downturn. Very little consumer protection is afforded to home buyers, you are the new born lamb with a pack of jackals circling around, waiting for the moment to pick you off. In my recent letter to the FSA I made a point that I believe they should, like every other investment product, have vendors print on the publications "The Price of Homes Can Rise and Fall" in addition to the usual "Your home is at risk if you do not keep up repayments".

Stick with it. It's risen over 7-10 years, now it's stalled. It will not fall in 3 months, more like a bumpy ride over 3-4 years, just like the last two crashes. Look overseas as well, plenty of other countries are seeing house price falls. This last year saw a definite market movement downwards from the crazy years. This is the point onwards when it gets interesting, not the time to get depressed, but this is the time the spin will be super strength as the usual claptrap of stagnation, new economic realities, etc., start coming out and the raft of usual fear tactics the EA's put forward. It's all in place.

Boomer

Edited by boom_and_bust

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I think what is really upsetting you is that other people have moved on with their lives so far on a superficial level

I think this is very much the problem that the OP is facing.

I saw my ex girlfriend last week - we finished in June of 2004 and I last saw her when she brought me a birthday card in January prior to myself getting ill. Since Jan she has met a man in June of this year, shacked up with him, changed her personality completely to be the girl he wants and, wait for it, remortgaged her house for a 70K facelift.

The house looks wonderful. She has done an excellent job but when I saw all this, and was told that the new guy is building a house on the Gower, the green eyed monster admittedly reared its head. I feel that this year my life went backwards and then I see a 'wonderful' couple situation, family home and all that and I am, being Human, jealous...

But have they really moved on or is it just superficial? Only time will tell.

They may have got the figures right and everything works out wonderfully for them. On the other hand, it could all go pear shaped if the HPs fall at the level many people now expect. As a friend of mine commented yesterday - "...in a few years you could have a nice home and a wonderful gf and she has no man and a huge debt around her neck". Who knows.

So I do think that the big problem the OP has is simply being jealous when he sees what he perceives to be a wonderful lifestyle enjoyed by his friends. You would not be a Human Being if you did not feel some element of jealousy over this - but do not let it make you bitter.

I strongly suggest that the OP goes and reads:

http://www.moneyweek.com/article/1346/inve...using-boom.html

and;

http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsAlerts1.php?id=4

and;

http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsArticles1.php?id=88

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I really feel like I am losing my faith in a HPC happening.

Just been looking at the latest homes magazine in brighton- things seem to be moving again, especially at the upper end of the market and prices in the 1 bed flat area seem to be stuck at the 135k level and have been for a while now.

Really really fed up and feel like I am never going to own my own home or have the settled life that I want - finding it hard to save as its so expensive in brighton on every level and fed up of friends using equity in current homes to buy second homes (know 3 people my age 32 who own 2 houses a piece)- just cant move forward at all as just cant afford anything at all.

Starting to feel like I did miss the boat and thats it- FTB out of the market full stop with houses being bought by people with equity to rent out.

Losing my faith a lot now. :(

If all you have is faith then.. your already f*cked.

If one day you feel that a HPC will happen because of all the bearish news and you 'knew it all along' but then the next day bullish news appears and it makes you feel bad.. your already f*cked.

If you wallow in your own self pitty, while stating to youself that you deserve a mortgage and its just not fair how some people who are no better than you can own 2 houses just because they bought a few years ago guess what .. your already f*cked.

Pick your chin up and give your self a f*ckin hard slap, we are in the biggest assest bubble this country has ever seen it will take years not a couple of weeks to get out of this mess, years not a couple of months,years not several quarters, now give yourself another good f*ckin slap. It will be a long ol time, some days will be harder to deal with than others but buck up because you have years ahead of you like this, now slap yourself again and get on with what ever you were doing.

Edited by theChuz

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If all you have is faith then.. your already f*cked.

Good post chuz.

You need to have reason and faith. Reason tells us the situation is crazy. Faith is what helps us to keep going even when people are whining "why haven't you bought yet?"

Visualise Wellington and the Battle of Trafalgar - hold your lines, don't let the cavalry in, wait till you see the whites of their eyes....

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I really feel like I am losing my faith in a HPC happening.

Just been looking at the latest homes magazine in brighton- things seem to be moving again, especially at the upper end of the market and prices in the 1 bed flat area seem to be stuck at the 135k level and have been for a while now.

Really really fed up and feel like I am never going to own my own home or have the settled life that I want - finding it hard to save as its so expensive in brighton on every level and fed up of friends using equity in current homes to buy second homes (know 3 people my age 32 who own 2 houses a piece)- just cant move forward at all as just cant afford anything at all.

Starting to feel like I did miss the boat and thats it- FTB out of the market full stop with houses being bought by people with equity to rent out.

Losing my faith a lot now. :(

You have good reason to be. The market seems to be picking up and the CPI data today is a problem for the bears. Are we going to start seeing IR cuts? If you believe the inflationary/deflationary argument of oil prices, a cut may well happen.

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I have to say the Moneyweek article suggesting 2008-2010 for meltdown is far to far away for me to contemplate. I'd go spare if I have to wait that long with a wife and baby on the way.

Frankly my own personal opinion sees it happening end of 2006 and then through 2007 as I think/hope (who can tell frankly) that the things are converging a little quicker.

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Thanks for the interesting responses to my post- especially those asking about asking myself why I want a house-

In answer to that, I want my own home as I would like kids (I am female!) and possibly want to "nest" for want of a better expression. Maybe those reasons are different to wanting a home for merely financial gain and investment? Not sure- why do other people want their own house?

I am not saying that there is anything wrong with bringing up kids in rented accom but as it goes, would prefer to eventually do that in my own home- grow veg in my own garden etc etc. Its frustrating in the extreme that I am unable to do that- but then I am not especially patient either and the body clock is ticking.....!

Pretty simple reasons really I suppose! :)

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I have to say the Moneyweek article suggesting 2008-2010 for meltdown is far to far away for me to contemplate. I'd go spare if I have to wait that long with a wife and baby on the way.

Three years? No sweat. I will be waiting with my wee pile of cash.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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