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TheCountOfNowhere

Panic Merchants

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Last few weeks, since HPC started getting a few mentions in the press and what with the spring bounce not happening and lending not increasing and the economy getting worse and wages not going up etc....

So, has anyone else notice an increase in panic'y posts from people claiming house prices are going to shoot up, "buy now", "dont want to miss ou"t, "the FLS is pushing up prices" ( which is hard to track due to the sales not being on the land registry ), "the new buy scheme will create a boom".

Has the desperate housing bear attacks on HPC started again ?

I didn't believe them the last time and I don't believe them now.

I personally do see asking prices going up but sale prices round here has dropped, so someone somewhere is lying/deluded.

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Couldn't "Panic Merchants" be used more aptly for many of us on this board?

The question is, is there a justified reasoning for adopting a panic mode?

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Couldn't "Panic Merchants" be used more aptly for many of us on this board?

The question is, is there a justified reasoning for adopting a panic mode?

There are certainly people on here being panic'd.

The media onslaught is relentless this year. I also detect it being very sublte, trying to ingrain the message that prices are going up in people psyche, when it is not actually true.

The government support for the housing market ( er, I mean banks ) is insane.

The land registry is not going up

The number of sales is not going up.

Asking prices are going up, for sure, but this might well hasten the copllapse in opinion/relisation that there are not many greater fools left.

The graph on the front page is still pointing down and looks like it has years before it bottoms:

homepage.png

People I know still loosing their jobs, people still taking pay cuts, people not had pay rises in years.

Public sector cuts coming through.

We had the "Austerity will last till 2020" message last week. ( that's just not cricket if you ask me ).

The government is grubbing about for any taxes they can get their hands on.

Labour admitting they will cut.

Cyprus collapsed weeks ago.

More collapse to come.

People talk about interest rates not going up...The interest rates can stay down it's the mortgage rates most have t worry about.

Only the FLS has cut down mortgage rates, but it is also destroying the tory voters savings.

Nothing and I mean nothing, points to house prices going up apart from the media's desperate message.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Nothing and I mean nothing, points to house prices going up apart from the media's desperate message.

So what about the LR report for London ?

The picture is different in different parts of the country.

In my area asking prices are going up and there seems like a lot of people are taking the opportunity to relist in the hope that they might finally get a sale at the price they want. Whether they will do or not is another issue.

I don't see "panic", if there was panic then why would asking prices be going up ? If people were panicking then they would be slashing prices and trying to get out asap.

I think the bottom line is that there are a lot of people who want to sell, but still don't need to sell. I don't see this position changing unless some sort of macro economic event occurs that forces the climate to change, as the government are clearly going to keep throwing a few billion at the market/keep rates low until the next election if given the option.

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So what about the LR report for London ?

The picture is different in different parts of the country.

Oh yeah, I forgot London, it will just keep going up forever, definite, you can quote me on that :rolleyes:

The picture is the same all over the country....job losses, inflation, austerity, high house prices ( except N.I ), ageing population, NHS/Schools/DHSS creaking under their costs, skint young people, massive unemployment, people living off the state, people needing state benefits to afford to live....

London's not some magical city at the end of a yellow brick road governed over by the great and powerful Boz.

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I don't see "panic", if there was panic then why would asking prices be going up ? If people were panicking then they would be slashing prices and trying to get out asap.

I was talking about buyers panicking, or being panic'd into buying ( the media's bulls***t ).

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Couldn't "Panic Merchants" be used more aptly for many of us on this board?

The question is, is there a justified reasoning for adopting a panic mode?

It depends what this idiot does.

Mark-Carney-008.jpg

If a UK bankruptcy is now inevitable - as i believe is the case - then his best bet would be to try to generate as much QE driven growth in the short-term as he can before defaulting on the debt. He's only here for 5 years not 8 and so should have packed his bags again before the sh1t really hits.

The rentier champs at the Evening Standard are already fawning obsequiously.

http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/the-carney-crush-why-london-is-in-a-frenzy-over-the-bank-of-englands-dashing-new-governor-8651864.html

Look, up in the sky! Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s superbanker Mark Carney, here to save the world, or at least the UK economy, as incoming Governor of the Bank of England. The excitement generated by the news that the handsome 48-year-old Canadian would replace Sir Mervyn King, becoming the first non-Briton to run the Bank since its foundation in 1694, has only intensified since it was announced last November. With a month to go now before he gets his feet under the desk, the capital is in the clutches of a consuming Carney crush. We expect a lot from this hockey-playing, Harvard- and Oxford-educated father of four daughters. Interest rates — even among those Londoners who usually regard banking as a closed, arcane world — are definitely up.

Part of the fascination stems from the almost messianic powers of redemption that have been projected on to Carney. After earlier stints as a junior finance minister and deputy governor, he took over as Governor of the Bank of Canada seven months before the global recession really began to bite in September 2008, and is credited with keeping his homeland free from the worst ravages of the crisis. This perception endures despite Carney’s insistence that a) the country’s investment and housing markets were more sane and stable than those of the US and B) it was a team effort with his colleagues at the bank and the finance ministry, continuing a long-established policy of prudence. British Chancellor George Osborne calls him “the outstanding central banker of his generation”.

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Oh yeah, I forgot London, it will just keep going up forever, definite, you can quote me on that :rolleyes:

The picture is the same all over the country....job losses, inflation, austerity, high house prices ( except N.I ), ageing population, NHS/Schools/DHSS creaking under their costs, skint young people, massive unemployment, people living off the state, people needing state benefits to afford to live....

London's not some magical city at the end of a yellow brick road governed over by the great and powerful Boz.

But London is where the media are focused, and compared to the rest of the country it may aswell be Oz.

What I have noticed are articles by concerned parents who have done well out of HPI. Typically they are younger Boomers or even as young as their 40's looking nervously ahead at their children's future.

And if they are journos in London they will definitely know the numbers don't stack up.

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But London is where the media are focused, and compared to the rest of the country it may aswell be Oz.

You have a point, Oz fooled a lot of people with smoke and mirrors but eventually reality caught up with him.

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As irritating as you may find it, I could post a dozen examples in the midlands of LR figures showing 10-20% gains post 2010. These are real sales, real people buying houses and paying insane amounts of money for them. In the SE this is even more insane.

There are lots of rational reasons why this shouldn't be the case but no-one should allow HPC Perma-Bear Cognitive Disorder to distort the reality of sold signs; LR figures and a sun induced feeling of well-being amongst the chattering classes.

Osborne has definately spooked some buyers into buying, and I've seen first hand the anxiety of a bidder desperate to 'get on the ladder'.

The good news however, these windows of optimism tend to come about a year before the onset some market debacle.

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As irritating as you may find it, I could post a dozen examples in the midlands of LR figures showing 10-20% gains post 2010. These are real sales, real people buying houses and paying insane amounts of money for them. In the SE this is even more insane.

I too could post dozens of examples of LR figures showing 20-30% drops since 2007. These are real sales too.

The indexes work on averages, you just got to ask yourself do you want to be the one paying over the odds or under the odds.

Also, the auctions, which are a true measure of the bottom of the market are not measured and sadly the banks are sitting on a mountain of repos that you and I are helping people afford to live in, effectively making us poorer.

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There are certainly people on here being panic'd.

The media onslaught is relentless this year. I also detect it being very sublte, trying to ingrain the message that prices are going up in people psyche, when it is not actually true.

The government support for the housing market ( er, I mean banks ) is insane.

The land registry is not going up

The number of sales is not going up.

Asking prices are going up, for sure, but this might well hasten the copllapse in opinion/relisation that there are not many greater fools left.

The graph on the front page is still pointing down and looks like it has years before it bottoms:

homepage.png

People I know still loosing their jobs, people still taking pay cuts, people not had pay rises in years.

Public sector cuts coming through.

We had the "Austerity will last till 2020" message last week. ( that's just not cricket if you ask me ).

The government is grubbing about for any taxes they can get their hands on.

Labour admitting they will cut.

Cyprus collapsed weeks ago.

More collapse to come.

People talk about interest rates not going up...The interest rates can stay down it's the mortgage rates most have t worry about.

Only the FLS has cut down mortgage rates, but it is also destroying the tory voters savings.

Nothing and I mean nothing, points to house prices going up apart from the media's desperate message.

Sounds like your panicking.

You've just listed the prop's to stabilise or maybe increase HPI.

FLS,1.5% mortgages on the way.

Derisory interest rates on savings.

Credit has never been so affordable ever.

BOE will keep interest rates low for forseable future.

Rents have risen steadily which makes home ownership seem more affordable.

Greece collapsed,Cyprus collapsed,banks collapsed 2008,Iceland collapsed & still house prices have'nt collapsed.

Add to above far too few new houses have been built for years,so just where do you see 'this collapse' coming from?

Would it not of happened by now?

Yes houses are over priced to earnings,but the masses are still buying them,FLS will take time to work through & the 'sheeple' will take what they can get.

If London 'blows' rest of UK will fall harder,but in south east where i'm looking houses are selling in excess of their '2007' peak & at a much quicker rate than they were.

Unemployment is always the first casualty when entering recession & always the last to recover when exiting recession.

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I too could post dozens of examples of LR figures showing 20-30% drops since 2007. These are real sales too.

The indexes work on averages, you just got to ask yourself do you want to be the one paying over the odds or under the odds.

Also, the auctions, which are a true measure of the bottom of the market are not measured and sadly the banks are sitting on a mountain of repos that you and I are helping people afford to live in, effectively making us poorer.

There's another prop you've listed,banks not selling repo's.

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The good news however, these windows of optimism tend to come about a year before the onset some market debacle.

I do sense something strange in the air, something like the last days of Rome, of half cocked and doomed-to-fail efforts to pump up one last little miniboom (for election purposes probably) before the whole rotten edifice comes crashing down. Desperate times indeed. I don't like it much, but I am resigned to sit back, popcorn in hand, and watch the whole sorry mess unfold.

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I do sense something strange in the air, something like the last days of Rome, of half cocked and doomed-to-fail efforts to pump up one last little miniboom (for election purposes probably) before the whole rotten edifice comes crashing down. Desperate times indeed. I don't like it much, but I am resigned to sit back, popcorn in hand, and watch the whole sorry mess unfold.

I am afraid that there will be a massive collapse when all the support fails..

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Add to above far too few new houses have been built for years,so just where do you see 'this collapse' coming from?

Would it not of happened by now?

where i'm looking houses are selling in excess of their '2007' peak & at a much quicker rate than they were

There's another prop you've listed,banks not selling repo's.

That's the panicky sort of stuff he means that's being spewed out, which you're repeating. Although for those buying they are not victims but fully deserve what they get.

Where do I see this collapse coming from? A combination of many things including Gov cuts, spare room taxes, council tax changes, older people struggling in larger homes, Carney perhaps not being as nicey-nicey to those who've already had massive gains and years of help to keep prices hyperinflated. Or US interest rate/bond changes causing more money to flow out of UK to there. There are loads of triggers.

http://www.thisisbath.co.uk/elderly-losing-homes-mortgage-rent-arrears/story-18991503-detail/story.html

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There are certainly people on here being panic'd.

The media onslaught is relentless this year. I also detect it being very sublte, trying to ingrain the message that prices are going up in people psyche, when it is not actually true.

The graph on the front page is still pointing down and looks like it has years before it bottoms:

I always look at the graph on the front page! ;)

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I too could post dozens of examples of LR figures showing 20-30% drops since 2007. These are real sales too.

The indexes work on averages, you just got to ask yourself do you want to be the one paying over the odds or under the odds.

Also, the auctions, which are a true measure of the bottom of the market are not measured and sadly the banks are sitting on a mountain of repos that you and I are helping people afford to live in, effectively making us poorer.

Spoke to someone recently trying to sell two properties, don`t even think they have had a viewer yet. I have cut my rent by £50 p.m and am just going to sit it out, save, and cut costs further, this is not a time to be getting mortgaged up to buy overpriced property IMO.

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That's the panicky sort of stuff he means that's being spewed out, which you're repeating. Although for those buying they are not victims but fully deserve what they get.

Where do I see this collapse coming from? A combination of many things including Gov cuts, spare room taxes, council tax changes, older people struggling in larger homes, Carney perhaps not being as nicey-nicey to those who've already had massive gains and years of help to keep prices hyperinflated. Or US interest rate/bond changes causing more money to flow out of UK to there. There are loads of triggers.

http://www.thisisbat...tail/story.html

There certainly are, and those with the biggest most unmaneagable debts and/or property they desperately need to sell will be the first to go down when the triggers are pulled.

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Sounds like your panicking.

You've just listed the prop's to stabilise or maybe increase HPI.

FLS,1.5% mortgages on the way.

Derisory interest rates on savings.

Credit has never been so affordable ever.

BOE will keep interest rates low for forseable future.

Rents have risen steadily which makes home ownership seem more affordable.

Greece collapsed,Cyprus collapsed,banks collapsed 2008,Iceland collapsed & still house prices have'nt collapsed.

Add to above far too few new houses have been built for years,so just where do you see 'this collapse' coming from?

Would it not of happened by now?

Yes houses are over priced to earnings,but the masses are still buying them,FLS will take time to work through & the 'sheeple' will take what they can get.

If London 'blows' rest of UK will fall harder,but in south east where i'm looking houses are selling in excess of their '2007' peak & at a much quicker rate than they were.

Unemployment is always the first casualty when entering recession & always the last to recover when exiting recession.

The part in bold is nonsense, nationally at least.

A poster called Brian Hall came past here a couple of months ago making a bull case which was based largely on a 6% rental rise every year, something he claimed to have calculated nationally.

I rented a place in a big block of flats (so many exact replicas available) over 5 years ago for £575/month. Today, that same flat is offered at £595/month. Using Mr Hall's logic, it ought to be achieving £800 per month. Slight difference.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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The part in bold is nonsense, nationally at least.

A poster called Brian Hall came past here a couple of months ago making a bull case which was based largely on a 6% rental rise every year, something he claimed to have calculated nationally.

I rented a place in a big block of flats (so many exact replicas available) over 5 years ago for £575/month. Today, that same flat is offered at £595/month. Using Mr Hall's logic, it ought to be achieving £800 per month. Slight difference.

That Brian Hall was funny; can't believe I'd forgotten about him so quickly. Yes Brian, shortage of properties, supply and demand ect in your forumula. Nothing to do with the supply of credit / willingness to take on high levels of debt, savings-income, highly changeable foreign speculation to affect house prices.

Got the impression he just wanted to help young people to buy now, without seeing any real possibility of rents falling.

He even found it hard to accept prices rose with availability of credit (see how they fell when credit was tightened up in 2009) giving it the old limited supply and high demand routine. There was so many good replies to him, it was quite refreshing.

:lol::lol::lol: Utter nonsense. You keep telling us "what you see", are you Mystic Meg or something? I have posted a couple of times what I have actually seen, as in reality, as it happened and is happening now. That is central Edinburgh rent (one of the biggest property price bubbles outside London) at 350 p.m 16 years ago, and at 450 p.m now, not luxurious living, but flats that people bought for about 170k at the peak. Kids will just stay at home, they will pay ZERO rent . Wake up and smell the coffee man.

http://www.housepric...howtopic=189928

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  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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