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Land Registry Press Release Figures Typically Inflated By £1,000

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Good evening HPCers!

I've been a semi-regular reader for a while and thought I'd share something I pulled together to add to the discussion.

Every time a new set of data is released there are always comments here about the data from the previous month - generally that it's been revised downwards, and no one can remember the last time anything was revised upwards. As far as I know, no one's taken the time to actually investigate this, so I thought I'd do my own analysis on the Land Registry data:

http://www.spencerlucas.co.uk/house-prices-land-registry-analysis-twitter.html

In short, the tin-foil hats are quite justified! The Land Reg figures are revised down by an average of £1,007, and of the 31 months that I have data for, only 1 was later revised upwards.

This means that a year-on-year price increase of 0.5% would likely be revised to a 0.1% decline. An anti-HPC conspiracy? Perhaps, or just a poor attempt at adjusting for future changes. Either way, I'd say it creates quite a divide for how people are told the housing market is performing against the reality.

(Sorry for plugging my own website. I bought the domain ages ago and thought I should finally do something with it. Don't bother reading the rest of the site, it's basically my CV written in about 4 different ways.)

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Good evening HPCers!

I've been a semi-regular reader for a while and thought I'd share something I pulled together to add to the discussion.

Every time a new set of data is released there are always comments here about the data from the previous month - generally that it's been revised downwards, and no one can remember the last time anything was revised upwards. As far as I know, no one's taken the time to actually investigate this, so I thought I'd do my own analysis on the Land Registry data:

http://www.spencerlucas.co.uk/house-prices-land-registry-analysis-twitter.html

In short, the tin-foil hats are quite justified! The Land Reg figures are revised down by an average of £1,007, and of the 31 months that I have data for, only 1 was later revised upwards.

This means that a year-on-year price increase of 0.5% would likely be revised to a 0.1% decline. An anti-HPC conspiracy? Perhaps, or just a poor attempt at adjusting for future changes. Either way, I'd say it creates quite a divide for how people are told the housing market is performing against the reality.

(Sorry for plugging my own website. I bought the domain ages ago and thought I should finally do something with it. Don't bother reading the rest of the site, it's basically my CV written in about 4 different ways.)

Nice bit of research, thanks for sharing. The spread between quoted and actual seems to be fairly random which suggests incompetence rather than malice. I suppose one of the months is the one where a HPCer helped out with the correct figure :).

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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