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wish I could afford one

The Regional House Prices Of England & Wales

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Given that I believe we are not living in times of Austerity but instead actually in the midst of a Financial Repression I have been running some analysis at both a micro (kicking the tyres of some properties and actively tracking Rightmove) and macro level to assess whether I should be buying a home for my family.

The micro level analysis isn't really of value to anyone but myself however I feel the macro level work may be. I've previously shared my Valuing the Property of England and Wales and Valuing London Property at Borough Level work which seemed to attract some interest.

Today I've gone in a slightly different direction. I'm only a few years away from early retirement and currently live in the South East to maximise my earnings. What I'm trying to judge is should I buy in the South East or wait until retirement and relocate to a more affordable region. I've therefore run an analysis looking at the Regional House Prices of England & Wales.

I found the result actually quite fascinating. There are really three distinct regional variations. London is a law unto itself with prices up 400% since January 1995. They also look to be continuing to head northward. The House Prices of the South East, South West and East Anglia have now stagnated with prices up 280-290% since January 1995. House Prices are then falling, and have been for some time, if you’re in the North, North West, Yorks & Humber, East Midlands, Wales or the West Midlands. In fact, if you correct for sterling devaluation, you might even say there is a House Price Crash occurring. For example prices in the North are actually pretty much back to 1995. This link gives the full analysis including a number of charts. I hope some HPC'ers find the results as interesting as I did.

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Great stuff as always. Thank you! :)

But although prices in some regions are crashing in Sterling terms, wages are also doing so.

Apologies Eddie_George I missed your edit. I'm also watching wages, particularly real ones, carefully. This link details my latest analysis.

This chart shows them falling off a cliff in real terms.


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Are you counting the shadow economy? If people are still buying at 8 times salary there can only be a few possibilities.

1. We do not count all the money in average pay surveys

2. Banks are lending to anyone

3. A minority have vastly over inflated salaries and they are still struggling due to supply shortages. The rest of the population is just surviving as cannon fodder. Born, move paper or goods for the elite, die with no estate passed. And repeat.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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