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The Reality Is.........

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The politician's favourite retort - "the reality is......" Yet stories are spun or withheld. Good news stories are pumped out, selective statistics used or massaged. The media and even Legenderry citizens are berated for whinging, challenging or going "off message" damaging 'confidence'. Creative accounting by banks & businesses, auditors and accountants mean that one day an org is healthy, the next it owes millions to creditors, subbies & suppliers (not forgetting the taxman). Banks forbearance, reluctance to reposess and refusal to mark to market and crystallise losses also muddy the picture. And then politicians paint over derelict shops with taxpayers money to create a false impression for the G8 conference held in a bust hotel.

Well what is the reality re NI house prices?

RPPI is whole of market and states 56% drops from peak - 13% below 2005 prices for whole of market - virtually total - sales, and still falling.

And interest rates will rise - sooner or later.

That's a good start.

Is this the real life?

Is this just fantasy?

Caught in a landslide

No escape from reality

Open your eyes

Look up to the skies and see

I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy

Because I'm easy come, easy go

A little high, little low

Anyway the wind blows, doesn't really matter to me, to me

Keep it real.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Pre-crash GDP figures show why the good times had to end

Economic growth is now estimated to be 3.9% below its pre-recession peak, instead of 2.6%


Fresh from taunting Labour at Wednesday's Spending Review that he inherited "one of the biggest economic crises of the post-war era", George Osborne discovered this morning that it was even worse than he or anyone had thought.

As part of a blizzard of revisions to historical data, the Office for National Statistics announced that the economy was growing more strongly before the crisis than it had previously calculated – and crashed more spectacularly. The peak-to-trough fall in GDP was a catastrophic 7.2%, rather than the already-grim 6.3% of the last estimate.

But there were special factors operating during that period to keep inflation in check, not least the arrival of billions of pounds of cut-price goods from China. Meanwhile, house prices were rocketing at double-digit rates, the champagne corks were popping in the City, and the feckless banks were fuelling a credit bonanza.

We can't undo the recklessness of those years; but perhaps the real underlying message from the ONS's latest calculations should be that even without the sub-prime crisis, Northern Rock and Lehman Brothers, it couldn't have gone on forever – and we must now get used to a very different world.

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'20-year battle' to restore economy


Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood suggested the austerity brought in by the coalition would have to go further, saying there was still an "enormous amount of work to be done" to tackle the deficit.

The stark comments were reported to have been made in a speech to officials at a Civil Service Live event in west London.

"This is not a two-year project or a five-year project. This is a 10-year project, a 20-year generational battle to beef up the economy in ways that we have not seen for many, many decades," Sir Jeremy told the audience.

According to the Daily Telegraph, Sir Jeremy said last week's economic figures - indicating that UK plc was still 4% smaller than in 2008 - showed there was a "very, very long way to go".

"Five years on from the bottom of the recession we have still not even near recovered all the output we lost in that terribly deep recession that we suffered in 2007-08," he added. "Those are really daunting numbers that just show the size of the challenge; there is no alternative."

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Still got debt? Then be warned: things will get tougher

The days of low interest rates are likely to be coming to an end sooner rather than later


Mark Carney, the new Governor of the Bank of England, is spot-on in warning about the prospect of higher interest rates sooner rather than later.

The economy is picking up as are prices. Wages haven't followed suit yet but give it time. The simple fact is that the Bank is going to have to start weaning the British people off the opiate of artificially low interest rates.

Saying we have had record low rates of interest for the past four years doesn't actually tell the full story of the scale of the economic levers the Bank of England and other global central banks have been pulling.

In the 1980s the Bank's interest rate was routinely above 10 per cent. Since 2008 it has been at 0.5 per cent.

Of course, there is now a substantial disconnect between the Bank's interest rate and what lenders are actually offering to mortgage borrowers.

In pre-crash days the Bank rate was usually about 1 per cent or so lower than what you and I pay on our mortgage. Nowadays the differential can be anything from 2 per cent to 5 per cent depending on your credit record and financial position.

I'm sure the bank won't hike rates to such an extent that lots of people start losing their homes – that would be counterproductive in the extreme – but be warned: if you thought the past few years were difficult for your family finances and you have persistent and high-level debt, then things are going to get even harder for you I am afraid.

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The truth about the mortgage timebomb

No need to worry about payment shock – overpay now or fix rates.


Outgoing Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King warned this week that homeowners in their thirties and forties are facing a mortgage timebomb.

He told MPs that households which are heavily in debt could struggle with increased mortgage repayments and other loans if interest rates rise.

With new Bank Governor Mark Carney hinting that a rise could well be in the offing, how worried should homeowners be?

"It's a bit late in the day for Mervyn King to be warning of ticking timebombs as he heads for the exit, but it is important that everyone considers how they will repay their mortgage, whether they are in their thirties or forties, or not," said Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients.

The potential problem has built up because of the record low interest rates we've experienced in recent years.

That's left many people relatively comfortable with their level of monthly mortgage repayments. However, it may not have prepared them for the prospect of rising rates when mortgage demands could be so much higher.

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  • 1 month later...

OK, so interest rates (BOE base rate) won't rise for 3 yrs (probably) but the emergency, short term rates will remain as is, with acknowleged consequences for savers, inflation and the currency.

The average worker is getting poorer (pay rises v inflation & zero hrs, part time etc.) but more confident (Danske bank & car sales)!!!

Unchartered territory, choppy waters, zig zag, Europe etc seem to have setttled (and such a long time ago) and instead of RPPI double digit drops we may flatline or have a % or two rise in the next week or so (peak season!!!)

Yet house sales are at a consistent low level (12,000 pa?) historically, with lower average prices, a moribund mid market (as against high repos, high ftbs, co- ownership, auctions), movers as rare as hens teeth and the phenomonon of moving every 7 yrs a distant, sepia tinted, memory.

NI's image is yet again getting dragged through the mud.

The question is, as ever, are we there yet? Or even, is this level of activity and average price sustainable?

I'm not convinced NI is moving to "escape velocity" just yet, nor even if it is ever capable of doing so in the medium term, given it's structural, political, social and economic foundations.

I suppose we can live in hope, and anyone who paid £260k for an "average" house a few years ago can content themselves that, for a few fleeting months, they lived the dream.

They'll have plenty of time to reflect...........

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Am I the only one who thinks low house prices is a good thing , only EAs and the taxman profits from high prices, and some landlords if they sell.

Welcome to the Matrix. Vested interests (VIs) use propaganda to convince society that expensive houses are a good thing. The reality is that affordable housing is good for society and expensive housing is bad.

Edited by Belfast Boy
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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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