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Trampa501

Do We Have A New Boom Starting?

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Yep, Europe and the US are in boomtimes.

Unemployment UP, borrowing UP, prices UP, wages DOWN.

I have no idea where you get the idea that a boom isnt already in full swing.

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Yep, Europe and the US are in boomtimes.

Unemployment UP, borrowing UP, prices UP, wages DOWN.

I have no idea where you get the idea that a boom isnt already in full swing.

You are looking at things the wrong way, those are just minor details.

Bars and restaurants in Madrid are heaving, dontcha know? That's all that matters :rolleyes:

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Talking general economy here - possibly led by the American exit from recession and a European recovery ...

What are you classing as a recovery? A rise in GDP? A fall in the rate of unemployment? An improvement in quality of life?

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Actually, those animal spirits could see another 1-3 years of 'boom' I think as the game of kick the can goes on. Trouble is, with the underlying leverage and debt around, it could all reverse very very fast. So - I am staying out of most of the equity markets I see as bubbles and saving my hard earned until I see a bargain or a fair price. Ideally I've save enough to buy a house before it all blows, but even if it does I'm spread around institutions in 5 different countries which should minimise the risk of direct loss.

Basically - not being rich enough to afford to lose it, I won't gamble it on the stock markets ATM. I am giving up the chance of some gains, I know....

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Yep, Europe and the US are in boomtimes.

Unemployment UP, borrowing UP, prices UP, wages DOWN.

I have no idea where you get the idea that a boom isnt already in full swing.

Houses prices up!

All you need to know.

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Talking general economy here - possibly led by the American exit from recession and a European recovery ...

There is no 'American exit from recession'. So no.

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Talking general economy here - possibly led by the American exit from recession and a European recovery ...

There is no American exit from recession. MEH!

2% inflation and 2% growth = 0% growth

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You are looking at things the wrong way, those are just minor details.

Bars and restaurants in Madrid are heaving, dontcha know? That's all that matters :rolleyes:

I did tell you Deckard that Spain had turned the corner. You chose to emotionally rule out the possibility...

Now unemployment is falling. The April fall of 46,050 was 7 times greater than that of the previous year.

We have now seen the May figures - a drop of 98,265 people - the biggest May fall ever!! (so not just down to seasonal factors).

A long way to go yet, but Spain is on the mend. :)

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Spanish economy rebounds

Interesting read

“There’s a qualitative change in exports toward more value-added products,” said Pedro Nueno Iniesta, a professor of entrepreneurship at IESE Business School in Barcelona in a telephone interview. “Spain will always export wine, olive oil, traditional products but it’s logical that there are other more sophisticated products such as pharmaceutical ones or car components that will play a bigger role in the economy.”

The “painful” reforms undertaken by debt-strapped countries “are starting to bear fruit,” European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said in a May 23 speech in London. It’s visible in “the impressive improvement in export performance in Ireland, Spain and Portugal.”

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I did tell you Deckard that Spain had turned the corner. You chose to emotionally rule out the possibility...

Now unemployment is falling. The April fall of 46,050 was 7 times greater than that of the previous year.

We have now seen the May figures - a drop of 98,265 people - the biggest May fall ever!! (so not just down to seasonal factors).

A long way to go yet, but Spain is on the mend. :)

you forget the method of measuring unemployment.

People drop off the radar and firstly reduce the unemployment figure, and secondly improve the unemployment rate.

as for import export figures, it was revealed that Chinese figures are rather strange, in that their export claims do not match client countries import claims.....always to the favour of the Chinese "growth".

I wouldnt put that sort of nonsense past any Country, specially one whose Government is in disarray and looking for the next bail out funds.

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Guest unfunded_liability

Do We Have A New Boom Starting?

Nadeem Walayat thinks so:

In the recent May 2013 local elections support for UKIP soared to more than 25%, over taking the Liberal Democrats as the third party of protest as the major parties haemorrhaged voters due to their respective failures to address a crisis that has been fermenting over a near decade that has its roots in Labours open door policy to immigration from all new eastern european accession states, especially as many in Britain now fear another re-run of what followed the likes of Poland joining the EU near a decade ago as Bulgaria and Romania joining will likely see as many as 400,000 migrants over the next 3-4 years which is set against official expectations of just 13,000 new arrivals during 2014 (Communities Department).
Whilst many mainstream politicians argue that those who will come to the UK will mostly be along the lines of the last mass migration from the likes of Poland i.e. young hard working individuals, however the problem is that most of the young hard working Bulgarians and Romanians have already migrated (estimated 200,000) to the UK during the past 5 years via a whole host of avenues such as work permits and low skilled quota schemes, all of which will be abandoned as of 1st of January 2014 in favour of a complete open door policy.

Instead it is highly probable that many of the future arrivals from Bulgaria and Romania will tend to be poor families who will seek to target Britians welfare system as the level of poverty in the newest members states are at European extremes that only the likes of the Roma communities have experienced in the former Czechoslovakia, in which case the calculations will be pretty easy for most migrants for why would a family subsisting in Romania on less than 1/10th the resources that will be available in the UK not migrate whole families to Britain who will have the same rights as any British citizen for access to the whole hose of services and benefits available from housing, hard cash, schools and the NHS. After all, if Britain's population could similarly attain an income that was near ten times the benefits cap of £26,000 in another european state (£260,000), then the UK would also likely witness a mass exodus of many benefits and low income families out of Britain.

Leaders and representatives of both major parties have been busy making statements promising to control immigration in the future, however these amount to nothing more than bare faced lies when one considers the real fundamental drivers for immigration because if the politicians were really serious about controlling immigration than it would already have been done!

Makes a string case for an immigrant fuelled house price boom.

Also makes a strong case against multi-culturalism but unsurprisingly (he is a muslim) lumps all religions togther as equally divisive & corrosive.

UK Housing Bull Market Opportunities In Britain's Multiculturalism Immigration Crisis

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Nadeem Walayat thinks so:

Makes a string case for an immigrant fuelled house price boom.

Also makes a strong case against multi-culturalism but unsurprisingly (he is a muslim) lumps all religions togther as equally divisive & corrosive.

UK Housing Bull Market Opportunities In Britain's Multiculturalism Immigration Crisis

yeah those beggars will sure boost our hpi , combined with the evil reductions in landlord welfarism imma gonna git me a btl pension portfolio asap.

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I did tell you Deckard that Spain had turned the corner. You chose to emotionally rule out the possibility...

Now unemployment is falling. The April fall of 46,050 was 7 times greater than that of the previous year.

We have now seen the May figures - a drop of 98,265 people - the biggest May fall ever!! (so not just down to seasonal factors).

A long way to go yet, but Spain is on the mend. :)

A bit early to blow your own horn on that prediction, dude.

None of the issues discussed at length in the Spanish thread have been addressed, let alone resolved.

One swallow does not a summer make...

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I have noticed a big upsurge in demand for IT workers in the past month.

As an IT person currently out of work and searching hard, me to - loads of contracting jobs, not quite so many permanent ones but I guess they will come as people move into contracting for the extra money.

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yeah those beggars will sure boost our hpi , combined with the evil reductions in landlord welfarism imma gonna git me a btl pension portfolio asap.

Nadeem Walayat, the stealth-boom loon. So stealthy the boom that he missed it completely!

January 2012 stocks 40% of asset allocation

March 2013... stocks 18%

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New boom? We've yet to see even a recovery.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMIC_FORECAST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-06-05-09-31-43

The expected U.S. "Great Recovery" hasn't materialized and the economy has fallen short of even normal growth, according to a forecast released Wednesday.

The second-quarter UCLA Anderson Forecast said the growth of real gross domestic product - meaning the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced - is too small to help the nation climb out of its slump.

The figure was 15.4 percent below a "normal" growth trend, forecast director Edward Leamer wrote.

"To get back to that 3 percent trend, we would need 4 percent growth for 15 years, or 5 percent growth for eight years, or 6 percent growth for five years, not the disappointing twos and threes we have been racking up recently," he said.

"It's not a recovery. It's not even normal growth. It's bad," he wrote.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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