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zugzwang

Uk Retail Sales Record Biggest Fall In 16 Months

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Maybe opening a dollar account now and transferring sterling into it will be a safer bet than the stockmarkets?

OK, Sterling has fallen rapidly in the past 6 months but it might be nothing compared to what happens when Carney gets started.

Its worth thinking about. Anyone know any UK based dollar accounts?

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These 'official' figures have never reflected reality in my view.

Just pointless number babble for the broadsheet newspaper reader and avid Newsnight viewer type sheeple who think they've got the world sussed bless 'em.

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I've been in business 18 years and I cannot recall sales nosediving as dramatically as they have in the last quarter.

That is quite a shocking albeit interesting comment BB.

The headline on the front of The Western Mail today is a headline saying that by 2018 a THIRD of current Welsh shops will have closed.

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HSBC offers one. LINK.

Citibank offer one as well. It is something I am thinking about. A few of us HPCers were talking about it back in January when, IIRC, Sterling was nearer 1.60 to the Dollar as opposed to 1.50 now.

We were concerned about the fees for transferring pounds into bucks but, with hindsight, it would have been well worth it.

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Inflation? In what? Certainly not seeing that in my travel/food/rent, just the opposite in fact.

Food and fuel prices are certainly well up since the start of 2008, rent is the same however.

Salary up slightly on where it was back then but by nowhere near as much as the cost of living has risen.

On the other hand I still have plenty of disposable income since I live within my means and didn't accrue a wodge of debt during the boom years, indeed I saved quite a bit when times were really good and work was well paid and plentiful. That said, I'm still probably less disposed to splash out due to the fact that money available for discretionary spend has shrunk (inflation) and I get sweet FA interest on my savings (financial repression).

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Just wait to see what happens to retail sales and inflation if sterling goes down much more against the $.All chinese imports are priced in US$.

I import full 40HQ container loads and for 3 years iv seen no inflation until it arrives in the UK.Every UK cost has shot up.

There is no way the UK economy is going to grow as public spending is still going up and peoples spending power is going down.

Dont forget though Carnage cant print himself the rest of the BOE have to agree.Will they roll over?.I think they are happy with £/$1.50 so will look to stay close to it.Much less and inflation will see lots of lamposts finding other uses. :ph34r:

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Food and fuel prices are certainly well up since the start of 2008, rent is the same however.

Salary up slightly on where it was back then but by nowhere near as much as the cost of living has risen.

On the other hand I still have plenty of disposable income since I live within my means and didn't accrue a wodge of debt during the boom years, indeed I saved quite a bit when times were really good and work was well paid and plentiful. That said, I'm still probably less disposed to splash out due to the fact that money available for discretionary spend has shrunk (inflation) and I get sweet FA interest on my savings (financial repression).

There are plenty like yourself.....the more they steal from you the less likely you are to spend.....are you any worse off for it?......no exactly. ;)

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Just wait to see what happens to retail sales and inflation if sterling goes down much more against the $.All chinese imports are priced in US$.

I import full 40HQ container loads and for 3 years iv seen no inflation until it arrives in the UK.Every UK cost has shot up.

There is no way the UK economy is going to grow as public spending is still going up and peoples spending power is going down.

Dont forget though Carnage cant print himself the rest of the BOE have to agree.Will they roll over?.I think they are happy with £/$1.50 so will look to stay close to it.Much less and inflation will see lots of lamposts finding other uses. :ph34r:

The thing is that the $/£ exchange rate is not something that the BoE can control on its own. With house prices going up by almost 25% a year in many places in the US, how much longer is the Fed going to be able to keep the pedal on the floor for monetary stimulus? The disconnect between the timing of the economic cycle in the US and the UK is setting up a huge problem. When the Fed ends QE in the US, and the BoE doesn't follow suit, the pound is going to drop like a rock. We've already seen how little devaluation has done for exporters in the UK (it's kind of hard to increase sales of financial services by offering a 25% off discount). The main effect of devaluation will simply make consumers poorer through inflation.

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Annual sales growth dropped to minus 11, the lowest since January 2012, from minus 1 in April . . . Economists had forecast an increase to 3 . . .

Hmmmm. That forecast is a kinda very long way off, doncha think?

Is this what happens when you compute 'official' data . . garbage in, garbage out? Or has everyone finally run completely out of money?

The decline in basic food shopping tends to suggest the latter. It's the last household cutback.

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Hmmmm. That forecast is a kinda very long way off, doncha think?

Is this what happens when you compute 'official' data . . garbage in, garbage out? Or has everyone finally run completely out of money?

The decline in basic food shopping tends to suggest the latter. It's the last household cutback.

People finally starting to cut down on buying excessive amounts of food and/or switching from processed foods to much cheaper (and generally healthier) self prepared meals, maybe?

It would certainly be a sign of things 'getting real' for the general population when they start having to adjust their diets (even if the diets would benefit from some readjustment anyway).

And if this is what it's getting like even with the stimulus of near zero interest rates and endless amounts of money being made available to the finance system, it doesn't point to the system as a whole being anywhere near healthy or recovering.

How long before regular people with rumbling bellies start wondering why the rich seem to be getting richer even as most people have to cut back on food? Should be 'fun' if they ever make the connection though I'm sure that there will be plenty of distractions thrown their way.

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The thing is that the $/£ exchange rate is not something that the BoE can control on its own. With house prices going up by almost 25% a year in many places in the US, how much longer is the Fed going to be able to keep the pedal on the floor for monetary stimulus? The disconnect between the timing of the economic cycle in the US and the UK is setting up a huge problem. When the Fed ends QE in the US, and the BoE doesn't follow suit, the pound is going to drop like a rock. We've already seen how little devaluation has done for exporters in the UK (it's kind of hard to increase sales of financial services by offering a 25% off discount). The main effect of devaluation will simply make consumers poorer through inflation.

+1

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Pimco's Bill Gross today.

I think Bernanke has a lost a little control in terms of the real economy. As a matter of a fact he never had it. And to the extent that low interest rates reduce savings and therefore reduce consumption, to the extent that they reduce the return on investment for corporations, to the extent that they destroy business models and then technically jam up the repo market, you’ve sort of lost control of economic growth going forward.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/29/pimcos-gross-says-bernanke-has-a-lost-a-little-control/

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I know it's a cliche to blame the weather, but it's got to have a lot to do with it. Who's buying summer clothes? Not to mention garden stuff, outdoor furniture, all sorts.

If/when we suddenly have a very warm spell, I bet sales will shoot up. Obviously it won't be during Wimbledon fortnight. ;)

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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