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zugzwang

Uk Retail Sales Record Biggest Fall In 16 Months

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They really are clearing the decks for Carney. Practically every indicator negative for the Cannuck ruin-maker's arrival!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/u-k-retail-sales-fall-most-in-16-months-as-food-demand-plunges.html

UK retail sales fell the most in 16 months in May as demand for food and drink declined, according to an index by the Confederation of British Industry.

A gauge of annual sales growth dropped to minus 11, the lowest since January 2012, from minus 1 in April, the London-based lobby group said today. Economists had forecast an increase to 3, according to the median of 12 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Retailers expect the volume of sales to return to growth in June, the report showed.

Higher energy prices and weak wage growth have helped to curb consumer spending. Data earlier this month showed that expenditure by households rose just 0.1 percent in the first quarter, the least since the third quarter of 2011.

“Most sub-sectors reported flat or falling sales over the year, with only furniture and carpets and recreational goods seeing strong growth,” the CBI said. Still, “a narrow balance of retailers again expect the overall business situation to improve over the next three months, with three quarters expecting conditions to remain stable.”

A gauge of the volume of orders placed with suppliers dropped to minus 25 in May from minus 12 in April. A measure of sales volumes for the time of year rose to minus 17 from minus 27. A three-month moving average of sales slipped to minus 6 from minus 4.

In a separate quarterly survey, the CBI said a gauge of retailers’ investment intentions dropped to minus 23 in May from minus 7 in February. That’s the weakest since February 2012. The quarterly view of the current business situation fell to 10 from 12.

The CBI’s survey of 69 retailers was conducted between April 24 and May 15.

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The bad news does seem to be getting a bit coordinated and perhaps even real - except for Sir Mervyn who says that recovery is just around the corner (all his own work). Of course he's leaving so he's just trying to protect his "legacy".

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I was half asleep this morning but caught something on the radio where the person being interviewed put high fuel bills down as the reason why people were not spending. Can't recall what exactly was being talked about but I recall thinking that it was strange blaming fuel bills for that. Must have been retail sales I guess.

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On the subject of Carney there's an article in cityam

http://

www.cityam.com/article/carney-could-rescue-uk-monetary-policy-not-more-stimulus

Carney could rescue UK monetary policy but not with more stimulus

A likely story.

Edited by billybong

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I know I seem to mostly post on this line, but it's inflation if you ask me, pure and simple.

3% or whatever figure is pumped out is massively massaged to suit the requirements of the banks/IMF/other supra-national organisations and protect ratings/high finance stability.

It's 10-20% per year and it looks like the pips have finally squeaked to me.

The government can't admit they've been deceiving us for all these years as it would be political and financial suicide hence the continual "surprise" figures.

How they managed to claim an 0.1 growth to avoid the triple dip is beyond me, but then I'm a normal person not a government statistician/magician.

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I'm off to leverage myself against some carpets.

No more spending until you have paid for them. ;)

.

Edited by winkie

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You're out of date, the latest thinking is that the last two 'dips' have been airbrushed revised such that they didn't actually occur.

Yes, according to the latest revised stats we have always been at war with Eastasia.

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SHOCK the FTSE is not actually UP on the good bad news.

I was surprised as well - the european markets were up as a result of Spain's poor outlook. You'd wish that a central bank would notice that markets love bad news as the cash spigot stays open and act to teach them a lesson, but the central banks and markets are mutually fondling each other round the bike sheds.

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I know I seem to mostly post on this line, but it's inflation if you ask me, pure and simple.

3% or whatever figure is pumped out is massively massaged to suit the requirements of the banks/IMF/other supra-national organisations and protect ratings/high finance stability.

It's 10-20% per year and it looks like the pips have finally squeaked to me.

The government can't admit they've been deceiving us for all these years as it would be political and financial suicide hence the continual "surprise" figures.

How they managed to claim an 0.1 growth to avoid the triple dip is beyond me, but then I'm a normal person not a government statistician/magician.

Inflation? In what? Certainly not seeing that in my travel/food/rent, just the opposite in fact.

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He might come in and just start pumping the rates up? That would be a shock to his fans on here?

There's not a snowball's chance in hell that Carney will put up base rates.

New BoE chief Carney will devalue sterling, Pimco warns

Mark Carney will try to devalue the pound by as much as 15pc after he takes over as Bank of England Governor in July in a last ditch attempt to cement the UK recovery, Pimco, the world's largest bond house, has warned.

By Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor

1:18PM BST 29 May 2013

Growth in Britain is going to remain "challenged" for the next three to five years as the Government continues to shrink the public sector and cut the budget deficit.

As banks and households also grapple with their excessive debts, "that leaves one policy tool outstanding, which is basically the currency", Pimco managing director and sterling bond head Mike Amey said.

George Osborne has pinned his hopes for the economy on Mr Carney, Canada's central bank boss until the end of the week, living up to his reputation as a monetary "activist" to help ease the transition to an export-focused economy less dependant on consumer spending.

Although economists reckon there is little more central banks can do, Mr Carney has insisted policy is not "maxed out".

"I think a lot of what Mark Carney is going to do – clearly he's not going to state this upfront – is to try and keep sterling certainly from going up and, probably, he's going to want to see it go lower," Mr Amey said. "On a trade weighted basis I think another 10pc to 15pc is manageable. Against the dollar we're trading at $1.50 now. The low in 2009 was $1.37. I think that's eminently achievable. I don't think $1.37 is a big ask."

Mr Amey said the depreciation would be against North American currencies, including Mr Carney's native Canadian dollar, and emerging markets ones, but not the euro, which is itself expected to fall.

He added that he expected Mr Carney to restart quantitative easing (QE) to buy gilts "as one of the routes to talk the currency down". Andrew Balls, Pimco's European head and a member of its global investment committee, added: "With growth models hampered, lots of countries are looking to the trade channel to try to improve growth – and that leads you to the exchange rate channel."

Edited by zugzwang

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Maybe opening a dollar account now and transferring sterling into it will be a safer bet than the stockmarkets?

OK, Sterling has fallen rapidly in the past 6 months but it might be nothing compared to what happens when Carney gets started.

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Inflation? In what? Certainly not seeing that in my travel/food/rent, just the opposite in fact.

I am seeing massive inflation in travel, food and rents.

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I am seeing massive inflation in travel, food and rents.

“Too Many People Buy Things They Don’t Need, With Money They Don’t Have, Trying To Impress People They Don’t Like.”

All the things that are not tangible for any length of time....clue static property. ;)

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I'm talking about basic food and travel. Nothing special. So high quality meats etc and train/car travel (servicing/insurance/petrol/tax etc).

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I'm talking about basic food and travel. Nothing special. So high quality meats etc and train/car travel (servicing/insurance/petrol/tax etc).

Things people need but can't store you mean.

Do we need to travel, eat meat, use a car, buy insurance, pay tax? ;)

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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