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Media Coming On Our Side...

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http://www.standard.co.uk/business/markets/anthony-hilton-the-downside-to-rising-house-prices-8634321.html

At an event last week, David Orr asked his audience whether they thought it was a good thing that in recent months house prices were beginning to rise. After what seemed a lengthy pause his audience voted overwhelmingly against.

Orr is chief executive of the National Housing Federation, the umbrella body for housing associations in England and Wales

... The difference in attitude is mainly down to one thing. The housing associations see the problem from the perspective of those who don’t own their own home.

The abject failure of housing policy is among the biggest challenges facing this country yet it barely gets a mention on the hustings or in any political debate... This has to change. Back in the Fifties and Sixties, policy on housing was a central issue in every general election. It needs to be again.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/10084693/More-people-renting-houses-rather-than-owning-them-would-be-better-for-our-economy.html

Since the British Bankers’ Association began keeping records (which admittedly began only in 1997), such a prolonged period of negative net lending has been quite unprecedented. This – by the standards of official received opinion – is Bad News.

To anyone who is not (a) a politician, (B) a banker, or © an economic “expert”, that judgment may seem rather odd. In fact, to anyone who is (a) a working householder (B) a taxpayer or © a common sense human being, it may seem like a sign that much of the population of the country is admirably responsible. But then real people live by a rather different logic from the class that governs national economic policy.

... Of course, governments face an intractable political dilemma. How do you explain to a nation of property-owners that it would really be better for everybody if the price of their precious asset could be allowed to fall to a natural level?

That, I admit, would take rather a lot of explaining.

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Meeja has been largely on our side for a while. Here's from 2011:

Interesting times

But something more interesting is happening. Instead of the mainstream media cheerleading all these interventions, they’ve united to rubbish them. Across the political spectrum, we have a remarkable degree of agreement:

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Since the British Bankers’ Association began keeping records (which admittedly began only in 1997), such a prolonged period of negative net lending has been quite unprecedented. This – by the standards of official received opinion – is Bad News.

Apparently the bba was founded in 1919 and they only "began keeping records" "in 1997".

Pull the other one - but isn't it neat that the 1997 claim is the year that NuLabour got into power in the lead upto year 2000 and the start of the period of time when debt really built up such huge and unsustainable momentum.

Indeed it built up such momentum since 1997 there's no surprise at all that "such a prolonged period of negative net lending has been quite unprecedented" since 1997. Likely it's the only period of negative net lending during that period so again it's no surprise that it's unprecedented - in the period since 1997.

If the bba did only start keeping records in 1997 what were they doing for the previous 78 years back to 1919 - and it has to be assumed therefore that they never ever speak about banking during those 78 years (as if :rolleyes: ) because they would have no unique bba records on which to base any bba opinion on for that period.

Then the telegraph headline:

More people renting houses rather than owning them would be better for our economy

That headline could easily have been lifted straight from a telegraph headline/article written all through the 80s when the subject was brought up ad infinitum and now right through to ad nauseum, all those decades and they've just regurgitated the same old stuff and then just done the opposite.

That part of the article (more people renting houses rather than owning them would be better for our economy) is just encouraging BTL.

Edited by billybong

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Perhaps one day soon people will recognise that the current situation is disastrous for their children and grandchildren - and ultimately people care more about them than they do about their mythical housing equity.

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Perhaps one day soon people will recognise that the current situation is disastrous for their children and grandchildren - and ultimately people care more about them than they do about their mythical housing equity.

People think they can "pass their equity on" to their children and their grandchildren, as long as someone else`s grandchild pays :lol: The sheeple are thick, cunning and greedy in equal measure.

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Perhaps one day soon people will recognise that the current situation is disastrous for their children and grandchildren - and ultimately people care more about them than they do about their mythical housing equity.

Many, many people have known this for a long time, and worried about it.

Though I know plenty of people on here don't want to believe this. They prefer to think that anyone with much equity in their house is crowing about it, gaily MEWing and going on cruises.

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Many, many people have known this for a long time, and worried about it.

Though I know plenty of people on here don't want to believe this. They prefer to think that anyone with much equity in their house is crowing about it, gaily MEWing and going on cruises.

I still think those home-owners who take pleasure in the very high value of their homes outnumber those think of the good of the economy, their own non-owning children, and generations coming through.

The media can't hold back reality in the end. We've just about come to the limit of things, after things already blew up in 2007. Six years on now, and younger people coming through finding things harder than ever. Even Help-To-Buy requires borrowers willing to borrow, against the very high prices being asked. The younger people I know aren't willing to do that. Co-op Bank employees are less likely to be hunting for discount mortgages at the moment, and those who already have big mortgages, a lot less comfortable with their positions.

Can't believe the widespread concern and darker mood at Property Tribe forums from the landlords over there in posts of the last couple of months. BOI's rate increase move, LHA changes. It seems to have really changed things. Banks a whole lot less willing to lend on 'BMV' deals, and greater risks of, I think they said 'trustee' coming back to buyer if sold significantly under market value to them. Suggestions you there is new risk of leafleting for distress sellers/'need money fast'. More landlords saying the professionals should be ok, and 'showing off' that they themselves only have 60-65% LTVs on their portfolios.

Edited by Venger

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In the second heading. 28 May 2013: In April, mortgage lending fell for the fourth month in a row.

Let’s chant the following sentences all together, shall we? Property prices in this country are too high: they are completely out of sync with ordinary earnings. Many, many people – especially the young, and possibly the old – should not be pressured into owning their own homes: for them, renting would be a far better option.

She ask: How do you explain to a nation of property-owners that it would really be better for everybody if the price of their precious asset could be allowed to fall to a natural level?

I don't think we'll have to explain. Market will eventually decide values for owners. Renting might be a better option but I'd like to see rents fall too, and more professional landlords who take their obligations to tenants seriously.

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People think they can "pass their equity on" to their children and their grandchildren, as long as someone else`s grandchild pays :lol: The sheeple are thick, cunning and greedy in equal measure.

Except that anyone with a calculator and half a brain can work out that high house prices are no help for your own kids, unless you've got more houses than children. I posted this on the Guardian article by Susan Moore:

@misterbee - Okay, lets look at some numbers and play the property ladder game. We'll go with the idea that you start by buying a cheap property (either due to size or location) and move up the ladder to a more expensive property (either due to size or location). In addition, we'll set some ratios (based on a quick rightmove search, and to keep it simple, we'll assume we're dealing with size rather than location, although it doesn't make much difference).

So, we have a cost ratio of 1 for the starter flat, 2.5 for a two-bed and 5 for a four-bed. We'll also assume two kids and inheriting half of a four bed (and we'll ignore death duties etc.- I'm doing my best to give as much advantage to inheriting as possible).

So, each child inherits 2.5 units, and can both skip the first step if they wish... but we'll also assume that both children one day want the four bed...

So, I do a search in SW16 - the studio costs £140,000, the 2-bed, £350,000 and the 4-bed costs £700,000.

To move from the 2-bed to the 4-bed will cost an extra £350,000.

Now, let's have a price-crash, so that everything now costs half. So, the child can still skip the first step and go straight to the 2-bed (which cost £175,000), but the move from the 2-bed to the 4-bed will now only cost an extra £175,000 - that's half of the previous cost.

So... are you better off inheriting £350,000 (but a four-bed costs £700,000), or £175,000 (but a four-bed costs £350,000)?

In addition, even without an inheritance, everyone's better off with lower house prices (hint - you start with nothing, would you rather raise £140,000 to afford a studio flat or £75,000?).

As a final point, let's not forget that high house prices were not driven by increasing wealth - they were driven by increasing lending/debt, and, for many 'owners', this debt is not affordable (hence the determination to keep interest rates at silly low levels).

That said, it seemed to cause some confusion amongst some of the other posters - mainly, it would seem, because it disrupted their assumptions about wealth rather than mathematics...

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House prices are too high.

Why do some think it is good to keep them high, just out of reach for a growing proportion of the population and for those that do manage to secure a home with a mortgage being is very high chance that they will never own it outright....the rest will rent.

It keeps people working and paying taxes, keeps banks and landowners with a constant and ready supply of income... ;)

Edited by winkie

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We've just about come to the limit of things, after things already blew up in 2007. Six years on now, and younger people coming through finding things harder than ever.

I think this will be key to any change. Will have to come to it later though.

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The abject failure of housing policy is among the biggest challenges facing this country yet it barely gets a mention on the hustings or in any political debate... This has to change. Back in the Fifties and Sixties, policy on housing was a central issue in every general election. It needs to be again.

Seemingly the most important question of these times is whether Britain should be in the EU. I envy those who think this is the most pressing issue the country curently faces.

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Many, many people have known this for a long time, and worried about it.

Though I know plenty of people on here don't want to believe this. They prefer to think that anyone with much equity in their house is crowing about it, gaily MEWing and going on cruises.

That could be a generational thing too. Younger homeowners[1] get excited about HPI, and their contemporaries see this. Older homeowners just get alarmed by it.

[1] Including mortgagors.

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People think they can "pass their equity on" to their children and their grandchildren, as long as someone else`s grandchild pays :lol:The sheeple are thick, cunning and greedy in equal measure.

:lol:

+ 1

.

.

.

:(

.

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I still think those home-owners who take pleasure in the very high value of their homes outnumber those think of the good of the economy, their own non-owning children, and generations coming through.

(...)

+ 1

Our political parties are always researching voters opinions on these issues, and it's no coincidence that all parties try to avoid house prices falling.

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+ 1

Our political parties are always researching voters opinions on these issues, and it's no coincidence that all parties try to avoid house prices falling.

Agreed. But to be fair, I didn't understand myself why it was bad until I hit mid thirties and had done my research. Only if it was taught in schools would there be a hope of changing opinion.....and who in power would want that, as the payoff would take 30 years

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To be fair, reading that would have me run a mile from BTL.

Do we have any evidence that property 'is' being people's pensions? I mean, a large amount of pensioners who are living off their portfolios...

Edited by Tonkers

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To be fair, reading that would have me run a mile from BTL.

Do we have any evidence that property 'is' being people's pensions? I mean, a large amount of pensioners who are living off their portfolios...

The more they try to talk up the market, the more determined I become to stay out of it. Their desperation is palpable.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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