Massive Drop In Online Sales For Ebay, Amazon, Play

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Even in the cities and towns lots of tnt, amazon stuff etc gets sent via royal mail for peanuts, if it was delivered by their own couriers the price would be more, even though RM has cost tax payers money over the years, we've all had subsidised post and small packets.

I know I keep going on about it and yes i'm a postie, but i'm just saying how it is.

There was talk on the Amazon & ebay forums, of their local postman / parcel force driver saying there was a big drop off in parcels after the RM price rise.

Did you experience this ?

I wondered if things had changed since as i've seen couriers charging more.

The DHL manager I mentioned earlier, told me that some courier co's did not want any more Ebay parcels, due to scammers / aggro etc

[rxe]

Is the customer just getting smarter because times are hard? Take something I bought recently - a Sykes-Pickavant Puller Set. If you went to a shop, it would be £695. I searched a few shops, and managed to get it down to £500. More out of interest, I checked eBay. There were a slew of them at £430, and one at £350. The feedback on the £350 seller was small, but no problem - so I got it from him. It all arrived, absolutely perfect.

Buyers are smart. Unless your price is the lowest for an item, you will miss the sale. I suspect many of these people are simply being out competed. The ones with the £430 puller sets are probably writing a thread about it at the moment.

[motch]

There was talk on the Amazon & ebay forums, of their local postman / parcel force driver saying there was a big drop off in parcels after the RM price rise.

Did you experience this ?

I wondered if things had changed since as i've seen couriers charging more.

The DHL manager I mentioned earlier, told me that some courier co's did not want any more Ebay parcels, due to scammers / aggro etc

I've had a couple of weeks off on holidays recently so not sure, i'll see how it pans out over the next few weeks, post normally slows a bit during june/july/aug compared to other months. Small packets and parcels have been rising slowly year by year generally with christmas going nuts over the last 2 years especially. Lots of revisions going in nationwide over the last 2 years, with a big push to replace bike rounds with shared vans, supposedly cheaper to run 1 van and 2 trolleys than 2 bikes.

[RufflesTheGuineaPig]

I've had a couple of weeks off on holidays recently so not sure, i'll see how it pans out over the next few weeks, post normally slows a bit during june/july/aug compared to other months. Small packets and parcels have been rising slowly year by year generally with christmas going nuts over the last 2 years especially. Lots of revisions going in nationwide over the last 2 years, with a big push to replace bike rounds with shared vans, supposedly cheaper to run 1 van and 2 trolleys than 2 bikes.

I think the problem is bikes simply can't carry enough any more.

[SNACR]

Yes, that's the one

That, I believe, is the delivered 'Super Saver delivery' price, Prime not needed.

edit: How could any ordinary mortal compete with that? You couldn't even give the stuff away and match Amazon's pricing.

Assuming Amazon is using RM (although I would think they've more likely got some great sub 5kg bag rate from a courier) there probably could be potentially a tiny amount of profit in the way RM bulk mail is processed. Customers are (insanely) charged band rates just like at the post office counter but it is billed based on the average weight of everything shipped per day multiplied by the number of items shipped so effectively it can be advantageous to add in heavier items depending what the typical average weight is. This isn't really a concession as it can obviously cut both ways. We have a system that will just divert enough to or from private couriers to RM to get a sensible result, alternatively they could just produce a linear pro-rata pricing structure based on weight and avoid this. As far as I can tell from the last time their account manager visited there isn't any real flexibility from any of these systems for large shippers of packets. Beyond, offering frankly derisory discounts for doing their sorting work for them I'm not exactly sure why they've got account managers as they have very little flexibilty. I did complain they were providing insufficient york containers to put the mail in and the situation was improved for about a fortnight.

Ideally Amazon are after luring customers into ordering other items at the same time, most likely. To be honest, this is harder work than you might think. An awful lot of customers online simply like to order one single product at a time seemingly not understanding this is resulting in paying unnecessary delivery charges hidden or not.

Even in the cities and towns lots of tnt, amazon stuff etc gets sent via royal mail for peanuts, if it was delivered by their own couriers the price would be more, even though RM has cost tax payers money over the years, we've all had subsidised post and small packets.

I know I keep going on about it and yes i'm a postie, but i'm just saying how it is.

The point is private couriers don't compete with Royal Mail in small packets because RM have the monopoly but this will change if they keep bumping prices up. In comparison 30kg next day guaranteed and signed for £5+vat by private courier. 0.25kg just in regular 1st class untracked not guaranteed by RM £2+vat. Obviously the two things aren't exactly the same but you can see how RM offer such rubbish value in comparison. Say I have 120 separate 250g packets going to the same small town, do you reckon I could find someone looking to earn a bit of money, in the town, who'd deliver them all for less than £240?

But how will I get my 120 small packets to my newly recruited delivery person without all RM's wondrous infrastructure? Well I can just shove them all in a single cardboard box and cut out the theft/mishandling/losses in transit middleman for £5 guaranteed nextday.

I was just typing that as a random example but in actual fact it probably is, in fact, a very viable and disruptive technology style alternative business model for small packet delivery.

Is the customer just getting smarter because times are hard? Take something I bought recently - a Sykes-Pickavant Puller Set. If you went to a shop, it would be £695. I searched a few shops, and managed to get it down to £500. More out of interest, I checked eBay. There were a slew of them at £430, and one at £350. The feedback on the £350 seller was small, but no problem - so I got it from him. It all arrived, absolutely perfect.

Buyers are smart. Unless your price is the lowest for an item, you will miss the sale. I suspect many of these people are simply being out competed. The ones with the £430 puller sets are probably writing a thread about it at the moment.

No, sellers are getting stupider. I think it's exceptionally unlikely, in this example, that the one seller has either negotiated significantly better terms from the supplier or developed a vastly more efficient or cost effective method of distribution (they may of course just been disposing of surplus stock). Ebay, in particular, is infested with busy fools. Here's just one example, I found immediately in the tools category that I can confidently say there is no profit on whatsoever.

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/ROLSON-TOOLS-11PC-SPANNER-SET-KIT-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-17-19mm-/150695617110?pt=UK_Hand_Tools_Equipment&hash=item231628a256

You do hear various things to explain sellers like this away, like buying direct from China or there's some vat dodge but, on this one they're clearly buying from a UK distributor and in which case they'll have to pay vat when they buy in the stock. Sales of 2000+ units is probably quite big numbers on ebay but small compared to what a national retail chain would order so wouldn't think they get the top drawer terms. Like so many online sellers, particularly on ebay and Amazon, they seem to be running some charitable aid style organisation aimed at supplying the British public with poor quality Chinese tools and other manufactured goods.

What ebay is good for is getting rid of, something like, unsold paint in some weird poopy brown colour when you can't twist the supplier's arm to do a stock cleanse on unsold store inventory. Previously you'd have to virtually reduce the stuff to 10p in a bricks and mortar store so a bargain hunter (possible HPC member) decides they can't resist the giveaway price and will redecorate their living room in a weird poopy brown.

Now, through the magic of the internet, you can uplift that stock back to the distribution centre and list it on ebay at a tiny, if any, discount and directly match the product with a national pool of buyers actively seeking paint in a weird poopy brown colour.

I think the problem is bikes simply can't carry enough any more.

Which probably should have been addressed five, or more, years ago when it was obvious which way the wind was blowing. Never mind they've been delivering DVDs at a price not reflecting their own overheads or something.

[StainlessSteelCat]

I think online selling by individuals has reached its shoeshine moment. I bet everyone reading this thread knows somebody who regularly sells stuff online. It's possible that in some categories, there are more sellers than buyers eg the secondhand DVD market.

People also have far less deposable income than previously. I know of one person who has a massive list of DVDs they want and checks their wishlist several times a day. Most of the time they are only interested in the 1p + postage items - and is happy to wait. No seller wants a customer like that. But I think the time rich/cash poor buyer is plentiful.

eBay - the search is seriously borked. It's impossible to find something that the seller is willing to post (unless they choose free postage or courier). You also stand a better than average chance of getting ripped off.

[Nuggets Mahoney]

Ideally Amazon are after luring customers into ordering other items at the same time, most likely. To be honest, this is harder work than you might think. An awful lot of customers online simply like to order one single product at a time seemingly not understanding this is resulting in paying unnecessary delivery charges hidden or not.

Amazon is moving with the times and has started rolling out its 'add on' program of low value items that will only be delivered 'free' if they are part of an order that totals £20 or more.

[Harry Monk]

Very interesting post in one of the ebay forum threads..

Well if its any consolation. My main employment is a car salesmen. I have been in my current employment 3 years. I always do my target of 18-22 units a month. and we always do 50-60 units per month between 4 of us. and I am in the used section of a major franchised brand. We have hit target EVERY month for 3 years until March. where we fell to approx 50% April was the same. And this month has been devastation. On the 21st of this month I was sat on 4 units. Last weekend 18th-19th we actually blanked NOT a single unit. Absolutely unheard of in many many years. Our finance penetration is down to record levels, nobody is borrowing its mainly the older generation who have the cash from savings, pensions etc. Product penetration is down to record lows. And the PPUs/ metal profit are on the floor due to reductions as the units are overage and being reduced to clear. one big downward spiral. I have friends in the same game who work in a spread out area in the NW of about 70-80 miles from Leeds to Liverpool, Lancaster to Manchester. Everyone of us is phoning/texting. twittering/facebooking each other to see whats going on?? and everyone is is in the same boat. its as if someone has just turned the tap of in mid April and I mean everyone!! from Prestige to mid range, from bangers to top end used. its on its *rse. Valeting companies are laying off as there is no work. The finance reps from San tan der and Blac Hors and Llo yds are bricking themselves as theres no finance penetration. Its not just Ebay there is something going on. My company has 42 branches around the UK and numbers are smashed at every branch.

[GeordieAndy]

What a great thread. I don't sell anything myself but work freelance for some businesses that do and they have all slowed down recently but not catastrophically like it sounds some are on here / ebay / Amazon etc

[I ♥ spreadsheets]

I'm sure everyone is simply saving up for help to buy

[ShedDweller]

Very interesting post in one of the ebay forum threads..

That's why I love HPC .. I get to read that sort of thing .. I thought "Finance Penetration" was what we had all been experienceing the last few years ..

[curious1]

Interesting thread! Thought I'd do some digging.

Amazon searches spiking for some reason!

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/amazon.co.uk

Ebay searches tailing off.

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ebay.co.uk

Ipads down, furniture/fridges up.

http://www.google.co.uk/trends/explore#q=tv%2C%20%20ipad%2C%20%20hd%2C%20%20sofa%2C%20%20fridge&geo=GB&gprop=froogle&cmpt=q

Mixed messages really... any analysts able to plug together more meaninful stats?

[Nuggets Mahoney]

Ideally Amazon are after luring customers into ordering other items at the same time, most likely. To be honest, this is harder work than you might think. An awful lot of customers online simply like to order one single product at a time seemingly not understanding this is resulting in paying unnecessary delivery charges hidden or not.

One quirk of ordering from Amazon is that if you order several items in one go you can very easily find yourself receiving multiple parcels, delivered by two or three different carriers.

[The Knimbies who say No]

Very interesting post in one of the ebay forum threads..

Interesting Harry, thanks for posting.

I'd be interested to know if your line of work is sensitive to such trends, are you noticing a reduction in cargo?

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Quote -Harry Monk

Well if its any consolation. My main employment is a car salesmen. I have been in my current employment 3 years. I always do my target of 18-22 units a month. and we always do 50-60 units per month between 4 of us. and I am in the used section of a major franchised brand. We have hit target EVERY month for 3 years until March. where we fell to approx 50% April was the same. And this month has been devastation.

On the 21st of this month I was sat on 4 units. Last weekend 18th-19th we actually blanked NOT a single unit. Absolutely unheard of in many many years. Our finance penetration is down to record levels, nobody is borrowing its mainly the older generation who have the cash from savings, pensions etc. Product penetration is down to record lows.

And the PPUs/ metal profit are on the floor due to reductions as the units are overage and being reduced to clear. one big downward spiral. I have friends in the same game who work in a spread out area in the NW of about 70-80 miles from Leeds to Liverpool, Lancaster to Manchester.

Everyone of us is phoning/texting. twittering/facebooking each other to see whats going on?? and everyone is is in the same boat. its as if someone has just turned the tap of in mid April and I mean everyone!! from Prestige to mid range, from bangers to top end used. its on its *rse.

Valeting companies are laying off as there is no work. The finance reps from San tan der and Blac Hors and Llo yds are bricking themselves as theres no finance penetration. Its not just Ebay there is something going on. My company has 42 branches around the UK and numbers are smashed at every branch.

Thanks Harry, do you have a link ?

A fall off in the motor trade like that, starts to remind me of the classic SERPICO thread

Ebays' technical difficulties appears to be a popular theory...

http://community.ebay.co.uk/topic/Business-Seller-Board/Switched/18000498295?start=312#msg1701011918

10hourglass wrote:

My estimated page views for this month? 527. Last month? 2,292. That's a reduction of 77%. SHOCKING.

I am a TRS seller with 100% record. I have a business to run. I have given CS a piece of my mind tonight.

We deserve an explanation.

Don't hold your breath...

What did CS have to say for themselves? I don't have a shop, so don't have access to a traffic graph unfortunately.

To all the people saying it's the economy. Why then are sales booming for a few days, then absolutely NOTHING for 3 days straight, then a few hours of good sales, then NOTHING for a few days. It's just way too extreme for it to be anything outside of eBay. Like many have said before it's like someones flicking a switch.

Also I've sold through dire economic situations before and it's never dramatically affected sales. And in 8 years on here I've never experienced this switching off of sales for such extended periods. The most I've ever had in all that time is one day at a time with no sales, maybe 2 literally once in a blue moon, but to do virtually a week with zero, or as good as zero sales is unheard of. It makes no sense.

[motch]

I think the problem is bikes simply can't carry enough any more.

There are quite a few offices that after their revisions couldn't get the work done, this was even after allowing for a settling in period, some offices went back to bikes depending on managers/posties views. Widespread use of bikes is still generally more effective (as in quicker) than park and loop. Just about every big office has a different way of working and supposedly once park and loop has been brought in it shouldn't revert back to bikes, but it has in many cases because it's more effective generally. Just means there's a packet duty or two (or more depending on office size)needed as bigger parcels obviously cannot be taken out on bikes or picked up along the way.

You're not thinking we have just one bag of letters/flats/small packets a day?

[Guest eight]

Very interesting post in one of the ebay forum threads..

I was eleven days overdue paying a utility bill and they sent a guy to the door. EDF must be even more skint than me! Also a friend who has been experiencing quite considerable forbearance from their mortgage lender has received a letter making it clear that this will not continue, effective immediately.

Sounds like the pips they are a -squeaking.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

I was eleven days overdue paying a utility bill and they sent a guy to the door. EDF must be even more skint than me! Also a friend who has been experiencing quite considerable forbearance from their mortgage lender has received a letter making it clear that this will not continue, effective immediately.

Sounds like the pips they are a -squeaking.

I got a verification letter from a debt collector so things must be bad.

[Steppenpig]

People boycotting them because of all their tax dodgery ? (I hope - with apologies to the innocent individuals concerned, of course))

[SNACR]

People boycotting them because of all their tax dodgery ? (I hope - with apologies to the innocent individuals concerned, of course))

Could be, I can remember when no-one would order DVDs or CDs from online sellers dodging vat by shipping from the channel islands.

It was only really thanks to that particular tax dodge that online shopping really got traction in the first place.

As I've said before. Amazon should give two prices on each product, including and excluding full UK tax, I'm confident UK customers would do the right thing and not turn out to be full of crap massive hypocrites.

[koala_bear]

nice find harry

Almost too bearish to be true but then again how many 13 plate registrations are HPCers seeing on the roads?

I have been buying less stuff online cos I don't really need anything/ have the space for it.

Retail sales in general are down (see other thread today) and the BBC and Guardian have both mentioned lower internet sales.

Why the big change in April & May? What happened that we didn't notice (or underestimated the effect of)?

April automatic makes me think of Tax or Benefit changes. Child benefit reductions pulling the plug on lots of middle class spending power. HB changes (by why a sudden shock with this)

Or is this simply a cumulative effect that has scared people?

[Steppenpig]

Heaven forbid

Companies are free to decide how they arrrange their tax affairs, and we are free to decide not to shop there.

[goldbug9999]

Heaven forbid companies work within the law to minimise their tax bill.it's not thier fault our politicians are stupid.

Plus I'm quite happy for a company to dodge taxes so long as they pass same of the saving on to me. I really feel no particular moral imperative to pay an extra £ for a CD just so HMG can subsidise my competition in the rental/housing market.

[motch]

The point is private couriers don't compete with Royal Mail in small packets because RM have the monopoly but this will change if they keep bumping prices up. In comparison 30kg next day guaranteed and signed for £5+vat by private courier. 0.25kg just in regular 1st class untracked not guaranteed by RM £2+vat. Obviously the two things aren't exactly the same but you can see how RM offer such rubbish value in comparison. Say I have 120 separate 250g packets going to the same small town, do you reckon I could find someone looking to earn a bit of money, in the town, who'd deliver them all for less than £240?

I get my 120 small packets to my newly recruited delivery person But how will without all RM's wondrous infrastructure? Well I can just shove them all in a single cardboard box and cut out the theft/mishandling/losses in transit middleman for £5 guaranteed nextday.

I was just typing that as a random example but in actual fact it probably is, in fact, a very viable and disruptive technology style alternative business model for small packet delivery.

There are quite a few freelance guys going around delivering parcels for around 50p a pop I think, probably pays quite ok if most places are in town and most people are in, guessing they have good and bad weeks depending on volumes given as it will be piece rate, have to use their own cars, garage for parcels and storing them, people ringing up at all hours, and coming to pick them up or get them redelivered etc.

I'd think a small company would struggle to organise enough orders to the many different areas around the country to make that worthwhile, maybe as a few one off areas they deal in quite often. How do you deal with some freelancer who's nicked all 120 packets of yours worth whatever value? he/she might admit to it all, but they're having hard times and bankrupt/no assets so you'd get what back in compensation? zilch.could put a smaller business under, at least with a big company delivering you'd have some sort of protection. Just saying it's not a straight forward simple equation.

A bigger company like Amazon have had the option of doing whatever they like with deliveries and they use RM for many items because it simply cannot be done for less, if it could they would do it. If they are to do similar to what you suggest (the 100+ small packets to freelancers) amazon or whoever will want a cut of that postage/packaging and all that entails.

[rxe]

Almost too bearish to be true but then again how many 13 plate registrations are HPCers seeing on the roads?

Shed loads of the things judging by the M4 at 8:30 yesterday near Reading. I was driving in a group of cars - mine was clearly the oldest, but the next oldest I could see was an 07. Loads of 62s and 13s.

I'll contrast all this with a story from a mate who is absolutely rushed off his feet in the car (parts) business and looking to employ people to do order taking and packing. He has taken the trouble to build relationships with OEM suppliers and is probably the cheapest person around for quality bits for a number of makes. Orders are coming in faster than he can handle them.