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YOY are already negative on hometrack, the other indecies wont go negative in december this year, you just have to look at last years data. Spring is a good date for general negative YOY

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I think another Summer of stagnation combined with rising IRs will really put the squeeze on people but that we need to go through YET ANOTHER Spring bounce and Summer bounce that simply do not arrive. By which time the UK economy will be looking pretty ropey IMPO.

Then, from late 2006 onwards I think we will begin to see significant falls as those who decide to wait it out this Winter will not want to wait another Winter. Late 2006 & 2007 will be the years of crash IMPO.

However, I think an 'unknown' may well prompt the crash and by this I am referring to a terrorist act or war with the likes of Iran. I think that, as reported in the Media, if the people recently arrested in Oz were really planning a terror strike on a nuclear facility in the centre of Sydney that it in itself could well have been the 'unknown' that knocks the West into recession and a HPC.

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My guess is that it will be when the YOY Prices go negative - December?

i think december yoy is v hopefull ironically i think we will see neg yoy when the fisrt time buters return to the market, tehreby starting to buy up some of the cheaper end ogf the housing stock dragging the "average" house prices down. Its negative YOY where I live already (SW), all these positive figures you see at the momment are just stored up energy that will blow in the good ship HPCs sails about march time to really get things going. If that does not happen then i give up

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Contrarians, like myself, would say that the HPC will occur when virtually every bear has thrown in the towel and the concensus is that prices will never go down.

We're pretty close to that point. YOY negative by May '06.

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I reckon a slight increase early next year with another 0.25% cut, a bit of Sipps and some creative accounting. But ultimately the fundamentals haven't changed and property will run out of losers willing to borrow six times their salary. This time next year the chaos will start to set in.

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I'm with MoneyWeek on this one, house prices will stagnate/drift slightly lower until spring 2008 when they will begin to collapse.

Patience my friends. This is only the beginning. :ph34r:

I think they were referring to US prices,and we are about 12 to 18 months ahead of them....which would give us a "collapse" point starting in summer '06(conveniently about the time SIPPS has finally been exposed for the b0ll0cks it really is and quite a few BTL are left severly disappointed...not to mention out of pocket)

this may well work out as YOY negative by december with a couple of large rops post christmas and a "dead cat bounce" in april,but not recovering positive territory,which is what BTL are expecting in spades.

When people start dying of the human version of bird flu

ARE YOU KIDDING?!!!!!

the store tills will be ringing with the proceeds from grannies will.....and being a virus it will be the elderly and infirm who get wiped out.I hate to be unfeeling but that will save the working population a fortune in pension tax-take.

that would be the biggest equity-release scam in history if it were deliberate incompetence by the govt that allowed bird flu to run riot(through lack of effective vaccine)

...and don't think those in charge havent pondered on it......we know they are looking for a way to reduce the forthcoming crisis by floating the idea of right-to-die laws being changed.

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I think they were referring to US prices,and we are about 12 to 18 months ahead of them....which would give us a "collapse" point starting in summer '06(conveniently about the time SIPPS has finally been exposed for the b0ll0cks it really is and quite a few BTL are left severly disappointed...not to mention out of pocket)

this may well work out as YOY negative by december with a couple of large rops post christmas and a "dead cat bounce" in april,but not recovering positive territory,which is what BTL are expecting in spades.

ARE YOU KIDDING?!!!!!

the store tills will be ringing with the proceeds from grannies will.....and being a virus it will be the elderly and infirm who get wiped out.I hate to be unfeeling but that will save the working population a fortune in pension tax-take.

that would be the biggest equity-release scam in history if it were deliberate incompetence by the govt that allowed bird flu to run riot(through lack of effective vaccine)

...and don't think those in charge havent pondered on it......we know they are looking for a way to reduce the forthcoming crisis by floating the idea of right-to-die laws being changed.

Think you need to check your facts... its actually the young/middle aged that are likely to be most at risk if it follows the same pattern as last time.

Bird flu is the single biggest threat to the world economy........ forget house prices, interest rates etc..

If as scientist are convinced it mutates to a human transferable virus the panic will cause economic collapse. Think about it, who is going to want to use public transport or sit in an office when the person next to you could be caring a fatal virus that you could catch as easily as a cold? People will just not want to go to work but our way of life depends on people doing their job..

To start with all the schools will be closed and then a lot of people will have to stay at home to look after the children. Seriously this could be a global disaster...

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Think you need to check your facts... its actually the young/middle aged that are likely to be most at risk if it follows the same pattern as last time.

The age group that were most affected last time, 40 years +, were considered 'old' then. The 'old' now are 70+.

Edit: Well I know what I mean.............

Edited by libitina

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Think you need to check your facts... its actually the young/middle aged that are likely to be most at risk if it follows the same pattern as last time.

Bird flu is the single biggest threat to the world economy........ forget house prices, interest rates etc..

If as scientist are convinced it mutates to a human transferable virus the panic will cause economic collapse. Think about it, who is going to want to use public transport or sit in an office when the person next to you could be caring a fatal virus that you could catch as easily as a cold? People will just not want to go to work but our way of life depends on people doing their job..

To start with all the schools will be closed and then a lot of people will have to stay at home to look after the children. Seriously this could be a global disaster...

when you mean young and middle aged.

young-yes...certainly agree there.

but middle aged?,I suspect the life expectancy in 1918 was a damn sight less than it is now.

average joe probably popped their clogs about 60.

and several million men 18-30 had snuffed it in the war.

if anything the toll will be worse this time as the transmission is easier...after all air travel by the masses wasn't available in 1918.

as for economic collapse...it's a matter of opinion.NOT so if you hold shares in pharma's!....it'd be a licence to print money,and there's very little countries can do about it...if they want the protection...they make the payment.

Edited by oracle

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YOY are already negative on hometrack, the other indecies wont go negative in december this year, you just have to look at last years data. Spring is a good date for general negative YOY

Can I just ask a dumb question here? I'm far from an expert on house prices so I'm wondering what exactly Hometracks role is in the market. I ask this as every time the halifax comes out with a monthly report which shows an increase in prices everybody complains its fixed but then hometrack comes out with a report that has shown drops for the last 16 months but nobody seems to put any notice of it. Is there a reason for this?

Sorry in advance if this is a stupid question. :)

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as for economic collapse...it's a matter of opinion.NOT so if you hold shares in pharma's!....it'd be a licence to print money,and there's very little countries can do about it...if they want the protection...they make the payment.

What about martial law?

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The age group that were most affected last time, 40 years +, were considered 'old' then. The 'old' now are 70+.

Edit: Well I know what I mean.............

Nope. The people most affected during the 1917-1918 flu pandemic were young adults.

From an article published last August in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:

"The origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic remains elusive. The causes for its transmissibility, virulence, and unique age pattern remain inadequately understood. In less than 2 years, the pandemic killed >675,000 people in the United States and 40-100 million worldwide, with the majority of deaths occurring among those <45 years old."

That's why the threat of this virus has me so worried. (Some of us Baby Boomers really do care about the younger generation.)

The flu pandemic could be the trigger than sends house prices plummeting quickly. But, frankly, if such an outbreak were to happen, I wouldn't give a damn about house prices.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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