Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
apom

Scary Graphs.

Recommended Posts

A few weeks ago I was looking at the below graphs..

You have to see to believe the effect of the August IR cut ..

Ok..

http://www.proviser.com/regional/towns/exm...es/price_trend/

http://www.proviser.com/regional/towns/exe...es/price_trend/

Higher then ever... :(

or does this closely correlate the amount people pay to the current IR's...???

Whatever happens... We need higher interest rates.

Its unbelievable..

:(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still believe that house prices can't be sustained.

But I believe now that the great majority believe they can and it is this belief that will sustain the market.

People are happy to pay these prices and the only thing that can stop that are higher interest rates, more people failing financially or a change in sentiment. Or a recession caused by the cash deficit caused by debt levels.

But without a trigger sentiment won't change.

I still believe it will happen.. and I believe that IR rates will be rising...

but they may not..

What I am doing though is making sure that i am happy.

I cannot afford.

I can borrow perhaps enough for something horrible... But my life would be a horror as I paid the mortgage.

Not feeling positive today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its not a matter of believing, its a matter of can they afford? MEW is still very low, and transaction levels are still low. This christmas will be telling, will it be as bad as last year on the high street or will be it worse? The weather is forcast to be colder which will be VERY bad for the high street, cinimas, and Pubs and clubs, aswell as EAs...

Or have been saving up over the past year and have the money to create a spring bounce? The only EA i personally know tells me they dont expect prices to rise in the next few years...

Edited by moosetea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its not a matter of believing, its a matter of can they afford? MEW is still very low, and transaction levels are still low. This christmas will be telling, will it be as bad as last year on the high street or will be it worse? The weather is forcast to be colder which will be VERY bad for the high street, cinimas, and Pubs and clubs, aswell as EAs...

Or have been saving up over the past year and have the money to create a spring bounce? The only EA i personally know tells me they dont expect prices to rise in the next few years...

I think we are in a blind period at the moment. Nobody but the people with access to the various figures quite knows which way we are going to fall in the short-term. The economy is teetering over this critical Christmas period and I think that by Jan/Feb/Mar we will know exactly where we are as the big decisions will be made in the new year. The turn around could be quite quick if the figures are bad (Christmas retail/followed by redundancies etc) and sentiment could change quite quickly.

Anecdotes of strong housing market activity (not pushing prices up but increasing turnover) could be the last of the suckers rallys. My water tells me I am right but this pre-Christmas period will be a quiet period whilst retailers, economists etc keep their powder dry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think that you will see any meaningful correction until the whole economy is in established recession.

But look on the bright side, with that idiot Gordon Brown running the show, it won't take long!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At the end of the day houses are worth what people will pay for them, at the moment people seem to be happy to pay a lot for them. Until affordability goes down this istn't going to change - however if people carry on spending now debt will continue to rise. We are also coming to the end of negative inflation on imported goods from China - goods there are not going to get any cheaper and as the yuan appreciates (partly under american pressure) imports get more expensive which simply means people have less money.

There will come a time when all this will bite people's budgets. Growth is hardly great so something has to give to correct the balance. The pound has also been very strong recently (cheap imports) and that seems to be changing making imports even more expensive. While this may be good for domestic growth in the long run in the short run its going to make people poorer.

I don't think you will ever see prices go back to the 1990's level - the liberation of the finance industry will lead to a real increase in house prices - but thats simply not enough to explain the raises now seen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think that you will see any meaningful correction until the whole economy is in established recession.

But look on the bright side, with that idiot Gordon Brown running the show, it won't take long!

Correct me if I am wrong but the housing downturn pre-dated and was a main driver to the recession last time (1989-95)! :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Correct me if I am wrong but the housing downturn pre-dated and was a main driver to the recession last time (1989-95)! :ph34r:

I think that the issue then was that the recession drove the house price falls. Many people losing jobs, high interest rates? repossessions etc.

Many of the people selling at the moment (down here) are not under pressure - so are just waiting. Not much coming onto the market and not much moving off.

Only my view and not necessarily correct.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Imagine what a horror your life will be if/when you're paying an even greater mortgage for an even worse dump because you didn't buy when you had the chance.

It will be a cold day in hell when that happens.

I would be happier living in a tent for the rest of my days living on roast hedgehog

Not sure what the gf would sat though :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Imagine what a horror your life will be if/when you're paying an even greater mortgage for an even worse dump because you didn't buy when you had the chance.

I guess it can happen but dosen't worry me hugely. I would quite like to live in London but if the prices get more more crazy I think I would be happy to buy 2 houses, one in Hawaii and one in a ski resort (say Whistler) and spend my time between the two. For £400k this would be an easy proposition - if I can't get something pretty great in London for that I know what I will do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be a cold day in hell when that happens.

I would be happier living in a tent for the rest of my days living on roast hedgehog

Not sure what the gf would sat though :)

Was round a friends a week or so back, and one of her friends popped round to see her. The guy lives in a teepee in hereford/worcestershire, and has lived in it for the past 15 years, he does odd jobs to make ends meet, but generally has a good time! The teepee has heated walls so he doesnt get cold, and he has wood burning boiler/stove, he asks farmers if he can setup camp on there land, either for a small fee, or occasionally for free and moves from place to place. He smelt clean, and looked well fed, but he seemed a bit excentric, a bit of a thespian...

The story is he woke up one day 15 years ago and decided sod it, whats the point of working 9 till 5 and living in a house.

Edited by moosetea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that the issue then was that the recession drove the house price falls. Many people losing jobs, high interest rates? repossessions etc.

Many of the people selling at the moment (down here) are not under pressure - so are just waiting. Not much coming onto the market and not much moving off.

Only my view and not necessarily correct.

It is a fact apparently, the housing market crashed and recession followed last time out. Quite a well know fact but I have no links to hand which would help. Kind of makes sense though if you think about it - housing market normally drives consumer sentiment (until they wobbled recently and said the connection had been broken - oh what a mistake to make BoE!). Retail slows down and they say it because housing market in slump hmmmmm.........makes you think its not rocket science this stuff (although the details probably are!).

The key similarities to last time are initially quite stark. Although we all know there are always different routes each time. 70's crashes were about vertical oil prices I believe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser

Imagine what a horror your life will be if/when you're paying an even greater mortgage for an even worse dump because you didn't buy when you had the chance.

Why live in a dump at all when you can rent a really nice house for a fraction of what it would cost to buy ?

As a cash buyer you are also in a strong position to negotiate a good discount when you are ready to move. If you balance the risk of 5-10% growth over the next five years agains possible 30-40% drops then choosing to rent now is a no brainer.

The housing market always moves in cylcles this time will be no different. The government and MPC don't like the real state of the economy so they are choosing to ignore the real data and live in a fantasy world of their own, most of the people go along with it because they want to believe everything is OK.

Here is an example of the FED choosing to ignore real data:

Fed no longer want to report the total quantity of dollars in circulation

"Berate the Fed for an unbelievable announcement made this past week. Without explanation, the Fed disclosed: 'On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate.' "

Not unreasonably, Turk concludes:

"Why does the Fed no longer want to report the total quantity of dollars in circulation? They know what's coming -- massive amounts of dollar creation to fund the worsening trade and federal government budget deficits. The Fed is just doing what other government agencies already do when they don't like the result of their statistical calculations. Like children, they play 'make believe.' "

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pound is struggling because the dollar is doing better.. so in relation we are doing worse.

the dollar is doing better because they have raised Interest rates.

To not fall against the dollar further we would have to do the same

DR Bubb.. Explain why..

I would.. but I get confused

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think that you will see any meaningful correction until the whole economy is in established recession.

But look on the bright side, with that idiot Gordon Brown running the show, it won't take long!

that's it!!!!!!!

this is tony bliars escape route!!!

.....maybe he plans to make his exit in summer next year,leaving GB to hold the baby that is HPC when SIPPS disappoints and all routes point down.

teflon tony will have escaped being made out to have wrecked the economy by ensuring Gobshite Brown feels the voters wrath.....but nicely carves out a niche for himself as one of the worlds great leaders a-la thatcher......hmmmmm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.