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malco

Peak Oil A Step Closer

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The second largest oil field in the world, Kuwait's Burgan field, has now rolled over into declining production:

http://www.energybulletin.net/10782.html

The largest field in the world is the Ghawar field in Saudi. There was recently another article in which the Saudis admitted the Ghawar had yielded 48% of its anticipated production. Like a fool I missed the significance of this; it is tacit admission that the Ghawar is about to roll over its peak too. When that happens we are @Peak Oil by definition.

You can work out the implications of this for yourselves, I am sure.

"Learn to ride a bicycle; you will not regret it" - Mark Twain.

Seriously though, a first-rate touring bike and the skill to ride it safely could be a major employment advantage in five years' time. It'll give you a marked advantage over folk who don't know cyclecraft, can't afford a car any more and so must rely on public transport (getting very crowed in an energy crisis).

I'd forget about any recovery in house prices in the forseeable future.

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Very interesting read malco.

There have been an increasing number of oil experts saying that we are closer to peak oil than we have previously thought. This seems to confirm that view. If Saudi oil production starts to falls the wheels will really come off.

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The second largest oil field in the world, Kuwait's Burgan field, has now rolled over into declining production:

http://www.energybulletin.net/10782.html

The largest field in the world is the Ghawar field in Saudi. There was recently another article in which the Saudis admitted the Ghawar had yielded 48% of its anticipated production. Like a fool I missed the significance of this; it is tacit admission that the Ghawar is about to roll over its peak too. When that happens we are @Peak Oil by definition.

You can work out the implications of this for yourselves, I am sure.

"Learn to ride a bicycle; you will not regret it" - Mark Twain.

Seriously though, a first-rate touring bike and the skill to ride it safely could be a major employment advantage in five years' time. It'll give you a marked advantage over folk who don't know cyclecraft, can't afford a car any more and so must rely on public transport (getting very crowed in an energy crisis).

I'd forget about any recovery in house prices in the forseeable future.

Energy should be our governments No 2. priority (after initiating a UK HPC)

Whenever it is mentioned on telly progs/news the full spin machine comes into play to 'reassure the population'.

Whats the good of having a house - if you can't heat it?

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Energy should be our governments No 2. priority (after initiating a UK HPC)

Whenever it is mentioned on telly progs/news the full spin machine comes into play to 'reassure the population'.

Whats the good of having a house - if you can't heat it?

At least there's some advantage to houses having got smaller over the years in that they are now cheaper & easier to heat.

Years ago, I had an idea of reusing wood to to build a little temp. structure cabin for sleeping /living within a large living room for those on pensions /low incomes in the winter to reduce heating bills. I figured the liability / fire regs side would be a problem so did not do it .

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When are people going to stop spouting this Peak Oil myth????

It's a load of ******. The only shortage of capacity is in refining and I wonder why that is?

NO IT ISNT

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage

Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Book Description

Were the energy concerns of the past year a preview of everyone's future? Will gas lines in the coming years make those of 1973 look short? Is the present chaos in oil prices the leading edge of a more serious crisis that will rock national economies around the world? According to Kenneth Deffeyes, a geologist with extensive personal experience in the oil industry, the answer to all of these questions is yes. World oil production is peaking and will start to fall for good sometime during this decade.

In 1956, geophysicist M. King Hubbert--then working at the Shell research lab in Houston--predicted that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1971. The hundred-year period during which most of the world's oil was discovered became known as Hubbert's peak--a span of time almost comically shorter than the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form.

Using the same methods that Hubbert used to make his stunningly accurate prediction, Deffeyes finds that a peak in world oil production is less than five years away. And he argues that new exploration and production technologies can't save us. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade short-term catastrophe.

Perhaps most surprising is that none of this is news to most specialists and many associated with the petroleum industry. But politicians, the media, and the public at large aren't hearing about it. Deffeyes wants to make sure they do. Thoroughly accessible and filled with entertaining anecdotes, his book demonstrates to the general reader why a global energy crisis is just around the corner. And, though the near-term scenario is ugly, he tells us what we can do as countries and individuals to thrive after Hubbert's peak has passed. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

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The rational reason for not investing in refining capacity is if you're doubtful about a continued secure supply of oil as input. Oil companies would be investing in new refining capacity if they could see future profits. The fact that they haven't done so suggests they've already done the calculations and know what to expect.

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The rational reason for not investing in refining capacity is if you're doubtful about a continued secure supply of oil as input. Oil companies would be investing in new refining capacity if they could see future profits. The fact that they haven't done so suggests they've already done the calculations and know what to expect.

I agree that oil is finite, however I don't buy this whole Hubbert Bell Curve. It just doesn't work like that.

Why would they spend billions on refineries when it would just reduce the price of petroleum?

NO IT ISNT

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage

Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Book Description

Were the energy concerns of the past year a preview of everyone's future? Will gas lines in the coming years make those of 1973 look short? Is the present chaos in oil prices the leading edge of a more serious crisis that will rock national economies around the world? According to Kenneth Deffeyes, a geologist with extensive personal experience in the oil industry, the answer to all of these questions is yes. World oil production is peaking and will start to fall for good sometime during this decade.

In 1956, geophysicist M. King Hubbert--then working at the Shell research lab in Houston--predicted that U.S. oil production would reach its highest level in the early 1970s. Though roundly criticized by oil experts and economists, Hubbert's prediction came true in 1971. The hundred-year period during which most of the world's oil was discovered became known as Hubbert's peak--a span of time almost comically shorter than the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form.

Using the same methods that Hubbert used to make his stunningly accurate prediction, Deffeyes finds that a peak in world oil production is less than five years away. And he argues that new exploration and production technologies can't save us. While long-term solutions exist in the form of conservation and alternative energy sources, they probably cannot--and almost certainly will not--be enacted in time to evade short-term catastrophe.

Perhaps most surprising is that none of this is news to most specialists and many associated with the petroleum industry. But politicians, the media, and the public at large aren't hearing about it. Deffeyes wants to make sure they do. Thoroughly accessible and filled with entertaining anecdotes, his book demonstrates to the general reader why a global energy crisis is just around the corner. And, though the near-term scenario is ugly, he tells us what we can do as countries and individuals to thrive after Hubbert's peak has passed. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

YES IT IS

There's always some excuse to keep putting off that peak isn't there?

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I agree that oil is finite, however I don't buy this whole Hubbert Bell Curve. It just doesn't work like that.

Why would they spend billions on refineries when it would just reduce the price of petroleum?

YES IT IS

There's always some excuse to keep putting off that peak isn't there?

do you think the oil resources are infinine ? of course you dont,

therefore you accept they are finite.

if you accept they are finite - as you must - then there clearly must be a peak in production,

the logic is irrefutable,.

are you refuting the logic ?

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I agree that oil is finite, however I don't buy this whole Hubbert Bell Curve. It just doesn't work like that.

Why would they spend billions on refineries when it would just reduce the price of petroleum?

YES IT IS

There's always some excuse to keep putting off that peak isn't there?

Wot BILLIONS?? :blink:

USA have been creaming off most of the world's light crude and spending peanuts expanding present refineries, whilst maintaining 95%+ refiing capacity throughput!

Nov 8th 2005

The oil industry's top executives head into dangerous public relations territory when they appear at a joint Senate committee hearing on energy prices and profits.

What can be done to create more investment in U.S. refining capacity?

It's true that there haven't been any new oil refineries built in the United States in 29 years, but even as the number of refineries fell by more than a quarter in the last 20 years, the nation's total refining capacity increased by 18 percent, according to figure from the American Petroleum Institute.

Total industry investment in refining is estimated at only $20 billion a year, or about a third of what it's spending on exploring for new sources of oil. And the industry can't say how much of the $20 billion in refinery spending goes for regular maintenance or repairs of hurricane damage, rather than expansion.

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Some interesting snippets on Kuwait, why reserves are sometimes re-stated and what that can mean about real reserves and also about the grades of oil that are produced.

http://www.peakoil.ie/newsletters/631

Kuwait’s Reserves

There is something decidedly fishy about Kuwait’s reported reserves.

.....

Kuwait’s genuine reserves are here taken to be about 55 Gb (far below the currently claimed 99 Gb) but this still delivers a very low depletion rate of only 1.3 %, suggesting that even this low estimate may not be low enough. Why would they be going to the trouble of drilling highly deviated wells across their border and trying to develop their own smaller northern fields if raising production was just a matter of opening valves in the Burgan Field?

It is a critical issue yet to be resolved, having much influence on the reporting practices of other Middle East countries, which themselves carry many far reaching political implications.

..................

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0927-30.htm

It's Better to Cry Wolf Now Than to Wait Until the Oil Has Run Out

No one knows how much is left, but humankind can't wait any longer before coming up with alternatives

by George Monbiot

Are global oil supplies about to peak? Are they, in other words, about to reach their maximum and then go into decline? There is a simple answer to this question: no one has the faintest idea.

....

In 1985 Kuwait announced that it possessed 50% more oil than it had previously declared. Had it just discovered a new field? Had it developed a new technology that could extract more oil from the old fields? No. OPEC, the price-fixing cartel to which it belongs, had decided to allocate production quotas to its members based on the size of their reserves. The bigger your stated reserve, the more you were allowed to produce

...

The current high oil prices are the result of a shortage of refineries - exacerbated by the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico - rather than a global shortage of crude. But behind that problem lurks another. Last week Chris Vernon of the organization PowerSwitch published figures showing that while total global oil production has risen since 2000, the production of light sweet crude - the kind that is easiest to refine into motor fuels - has fallen, by 2m barrels a day. This grade, he claims, has already peaked. The refinery crisis results partly from this constraint: there aren't enough plants capable of processing the heavier grades.

......

Of course, we have been here before. Oil analysts and environmentalists have warned of disappearing reserves ever since drilling began, and they have always been proved wrong. According to people such as the Danish statistician Bjorn Lomborg, this is because the industry is self-regulating. "High real prices deter consumption and encourage the development of other sources of oil and non-oil energy supplies," he says. "Since searching costs money, new searches will not be initiated too far in advance of production. Consequently, new oilfields will be continuously added as demand rises ... we will stop using oil when other energy technologies provide superior benefits."

It is beginning to look as if he is wrong on all counts. As the Economist magazine pointed out on September 10, "demand for petrol is pretty inelastic in the short term", because people still have to go to work, however much it costs. According to the analyst it cites, "it would take a doubling of petrol prices to reduce American petrol consumption by just 5%".

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So, as usual, make up your own mind because vested interests on both sides are well, vested interests.

That's the problem with life. How do you know what is the truth?

its a finite resource so it must run out.,

thats the truth,

they arent making oil any more.

Edited by kenclarkesshoes

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When are people going to stop spouting this Peak Oil myth????

I agree that oil is finite, however I don't buy this whole Hubbert Bell Curve. It just doesn't work like that.

What are you on about, just doesn't work like that? Care to propose a better theory about how the rate of extraction from a field varies with remaining reserves? It absolutely works like that as has been shown with many individual fields and the many major countries have already peaked (America, Norway, Venezuela, UK, Indonesia etc.).

Individual companies have peaked (Chevron, Exxon, Shell, Total) (link link).

Individual grades of oil have peaked (Light sweet crude) (link).

The only thing left to peak is total all oil extraction rates for which the experts predict 2007/8

Edited by clv101

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:lol::lol::lol:

That's right!

snip hysterical rant. the Guardian and Sun are hardly any better at providing their readers with the facts.

No one is saying it will run out tomorrow.

We are saying it will run out very soon (60-100 years ) and that inevitably production must peak.

Are you denying this ?

what do to ? admitting its a serious problem would be a start.

you have to accept its a problem before you can do anything about it.

But I think it is too late to do anything about it. The fix is in for us,

What will happen:

- we will place sanctions against Iran preventhing them selling oil and gas to China

- China will attack the dollar

- All hell will break loose

- war all over the east in Iran and elsewhere

Edited by kenclarkesshoes

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We are saying it will run out very soon (60-100 years ) and that inevitably production must peak.

Very soon?? In a time frame in which most HPCers and almost everyone else will be dead? A classic case of argument stretch.

Edited by BoredTrainBuilder

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Very soon?? In a time frame in which most HPCers and almost everyone else will be dead? A classic case of argument stretch.

Oil will run out in that timespan but the problems of dwindling supply versus increasing demand will be fully felt in a very short time indeed. I believe we are already experiencing the effects with US intervention in Iraq (directly ) and Venezuela (indirectly).

The wars for oil and gas have already started and will only get worse.

The problem of peak oil is already here.

Edited by kenclarkesshoes

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It will run out in that timespan but the problems of dwindling supply versus increasing demand will be fully felt in a very short time indeed. I believe we are already experiencing the effects with US intervention in Iraq (directly ) and Venezuela (indirectly).

The wars for oil and gas have already started and will only get worse.

The problem of peak oil is already here.

Maybe, maybe not. But 'very soon' does not mean 'sometime after I am dead'. Arguments are stronger if hyperbole is not used.

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It is useful to have read Ken Deffeyes's book "Beyond Oil", since he explains quite clearly the analytical method strongly suggesting that global oil production will roll over the top of the bell curve in the next few years.

In order to justify the belief that the global peak will not come for say another ten years, you have to assume an increase in global oil reserves that simply is not justified.

The central problem is the amount of oil the world uses (for which read, squanders to sustain a lifestyle of adolescent aspiration). For instance, the Nazi war machine required about 85 million barrels of oil for one year of action in the mid 1940s. Today, the world uses that much oil IN ONE DAY. It's the scale of consumption that is driving this issue. The reason there "has" to be an oil peak about now is because the maths says there has to be. Discover a whole new Saudi Arabia tomorrow and that saves us? No, just provides maybe five years' extra time. That's what I mean when I say the mathematical and geological realities don't provide much leeway on this one. In fact, there have been no major new oilfields found since the mid 1970s, and that (Cantarell) was tiny relative to any major Middle Eastern oilfield. Most of the world's oil comes from giant fields discovered just after the Second World War. Like the Burgan field, they can't last forever.

Skribowski, the editor of the Petroluem Review, has analysed all the new oil production capacity to be brought on line in the next five years. He shows that at best we can hope to hold production at current levels for a few more years. We may not even do that now this news about Burgan has come out.

The facts are there for people to heed them. But no authority is emphasising them, so outside of a few technocrats the issue has no hold on minds. I agree that part of the problem is that we have "run out of oil" many times in the past. In fact, that is a misinterpretation of what was said at the time. People can't organise their lives twenty years in advance, so Jimmy Carter got painted up as a crank.

What can you do about it? Not much. Stay out of debt. Save. Spread your wealth to survive a financial crisis. Learn to ride a bicycle; you will not regret it.

Edited by malco

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I agree that the supply of oil will run out some stage but I also think that the sun will burn itself out in around 4 billion years. Sorry that I can not be more precise as I'll be oil myself by then.

Oil and gas will start to run out within your lifetime so I wouldnt be so smug.

We may have power cuts this winter because we wont have enough gas to meed the demand.

It is only going to get worse. That is why they will tackle Iran sooner rather than later,

Maybe, maybe not. But 'very soon' does not mean 'sometime after I am dead'. Arguments are stronger if hyperbole is not used.

Unless you plan on dying very soon you will be around to see the effects of peak oil.

Of course wether you are able to understand them as that is a moot point.

I doubt you have the ability to analyze the situation.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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