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What Effect Will Demographic Change Have On The Housing Market?

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When do people think that demographic changes will start to have an effect on housing policy/law?

In the next 10-20 years all those 20 and 30 something who are now renting will start to get fed up of paying all their wages to a landlord. I know the boomer and pensioner generation is larger and tend to vote but surely a big increase in the number of older people forced to rent (people in their 40s/50s) and the benefits bill that will explode when all the current renters who cannot find work after 50, can no longer afford to fund their own rent and have no pension is going to put a lot of pressure on welfare.

We will have millions of over 50s renting and having to ask their 80 year old landlord if they can put up a shelf or have another bowl of gruel. It would be funny if it wasn't so depressing and humiliating. Surely somethings got to give sooner (or later)?

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Interestingly a lot of the demographic based predictions have proven wrong.

At one point the view was "that as the UK population ages and has a higher proportion of elderly, they will downsize pushing prices down."

What seems to have happened is that ageing populations have carried on hanging onto their large houses after the kids have left, meanwhile house building has ground to a halt meaning there is less property in the market (especially for first time buyers) than there would have been if house building had carried on. Meanwhile in the social sector the Government decided to pay £90bn to private landlords via housing benefit, and spend just a few billion on building new homes. Plus we have had several hundred thousand extra immigrants with a population set to hit nearly 80m by 2050 making us the largest country in Europe.

Guess what would happen if the £90bn were spend on building new homes rather than rent subsidy?

It is a totally rigged game.

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Interestingly a lot of the demographic based predictions have proven wrong.

Guess what would happen if the £90bn were spend on building new homes rather than rent subsidy?

It is a totally rigged game.

House prices and rent would fall, but apparently with 64% home owners, renters have no chance

Going to eat my cake now:(

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Interestingly a lot of the demographic based predictions have proven wrong.

At one point the view was "that as the UK population ages and has a higher proportion of elderly, they will downsize pushing prices down."

What seems to have happened is that ageing populations have carried on hanging onto their large houses after the kids have left, meanwhile house building has ground to a halt meaning there is less property in the market (especially for first time buyers) than there would have been if house building had carried on. Meanwhile in the social sector the Government decided to pay £90bn to private landlords via housing benefit, and spend just a few billion on building new homes. Plus we have had several hundred thousand extra immigrants with a population set to hit nearly 80m by 2050 making us the largest country in Europe.

Guess what would happen if the £90bn were spend on building new homes rather than rent subsidy?

It is a totally rigged game.

Yes, but at the same time these things take time. The oldest post-war people are not yet 70, and many/most probably still enjoy good health. It'll surely take a few years before the ravages of old age set in for significant numbers of these people? I've seen others talk about 2022/2023 as the demographic tipping point.

That said, I wouldn't fancy being on the end of some of the maintenance+utility bills that must drop through the letterboxes of some of the smarter gaffs near me, which must be almost exclusively owned by older types- they are simply not available to (the vast majority of) younger people. Plenty of pensioners are being crucified by low rates and the rising cost of food and fuel, and the squeeze ain't over yet, especially with Carney due off the boat soon enough. Doubtless some will be forced to sell up as a result before health concerns do.

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When do people think that demographic changes will start to have an effect on housing policy/law?

In the next 10-20 years all those 20 and 30 something who are now renting will start to get fed up of paying all their wages to a landlord. I know the boomer and pensioner generation is larger and tend to vote but surely a big increase in the number of older people forced to rent (people in their 40s/50s) and the benefits bill that will explode when all the current renters who cannot find work after 50, can no longer afford to fund their own rent and have no pension is going to put a lot of pressure on welfare.

We will have millions of over 50s renting and having to ask their 80 year old landlord if they can put up a shelf or have another bowl of gruel. It would be funny if it wasn't so depressing and humiliating. Surely somethings got to give sooner (or later)?

In Hong Kong, Rich Live In Mountain Mansions And Poor Live In Cages: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2275206/Hong-Kongs-metal-cage-homes-How-tens-thousands-live-6ft-2ft-rabbit-hutches.html

Does any of this sound familiar?

"Home prices rose 23 per cent in the first 10 months of 2012 and have doubled since bottoming out in 2008"

"The soaring costs are putting decent homes out of reach of a large portion of the population while stoking resentment of the government, which controls all land for development, and a coterie of wealthy property developers.

"Housing costs have been fuelled by easy credit thanks to ultralow interest rates . Money flooding in from mainland Chinese and foreign investors looking for higher returns has exacerbated the rise."

"210,000 people are on waiting list for public housing, double from 2006"

"Forced by skyrocketing housing prices to live in cramped, dirty and unsafe conditions, their plight also highlights growing public rage over the city's housing crisis."

"When living spaces are so congested, they would make people feel uneasy, desperate,' and angry at the government" "...the inability of the middle class to buy homes posed a threat to social stability"

"Anger over housing prices is a common theme in increasingly frequent anti-government protests."

"'It's impossible for me to save"

"The three live in a 50sq ft room, one of seven created by subdividing an existing apartment...'There's too little space here. We can barely breathe,' said Lee, who shares the bottom bunk with her grandson...The struggle to raise her two grandchildren in such conditions was wearing her out.

'It's exhausting,' she said. 'Sometimes I get so pent up with anger, and I cry but no one sees because I hide away.'"

Welcome to the future. Are you watching Boris?

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Yes, but at the same time these things take time. The oldest post-war people are not yet 70, and many/most probably still enjoy good health. It'll surely take a few years before the ravages of old age set in for significant numbers of these people? I've seen others talk about 2022/2023 as the demographic tipping point.

That said, I wouldn't fancy being on the end of some of the maintenance+utility bills that must drop through the letterboxes of some of the smarter gaffs near me, which must be almost exclusively owned by older types- they are simply not available to (the vast majority of) younger people. Plenty of pensioners are being crucified by low rates and the rising cost of food and fuel, and the squeeze ain't over yet, especially with Carney due off the boat soon enough. Doubtless some will be forced to sell up as a result before health concerns do.

Fact is, most older people do not live in large houses with big gardens. The majority live in relatively modest houses that probably felt on the small side when they had teens/20s still at home. Once they've fled, the houses are mostly not too big or unmanageable for people who are still fit and active. And they don't want to move to anything much smaller because they still want room for children/grandchildren to stay.

From experience and observation, more downsizing happens quite a bit later, when one partner has died and the other is really getting elderly and a bit frail. And often not even then, since the older and frailer you get, the more the upheaval of it all is more than you can face. Often it's a case of either death or care home fees before the place finally goes on the market.

Having said that we know a couple (late 60s) who have a large (5 bed, 3 recep.) and very 'desirable' property with a very large garden in a rural area up north that's beautiful but very exposed to cold winds. They admitted even years ago that it took a lot of heating. It has been on the market for ages but it doesn't seem to dawn on them that the kind of people who might have bought it 30 years ago (people like them) mostly can't even think of paying the sort of money they're asking now. However, they're 'waiting for the market to pick up'. ;)

This couple are 'swallows' - little place in South Africa for escaping the cold northern winters. But of course they still have to leave the heating on while they're away.

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Fact is, most older people do not live in large houses with big gardens. The majority live in relatively modest houses that probably felt on the small side when they had teens/20s still at home. Once they've fled, the houses are mostly not too big or unmanageable for people who are still fit and active. And they don't want to move to anything much smaller because they still want room for children/grandchildren to stay.

From experience and observation, more downsizing happens quite a bit later, when one partner has died and the other is really getting elderly and a bit frail. And often not even then, since the older and frailer you get, the more the upheaval of it all is more than you can face. Often it's a case of either death or care home fees before the place finally goes on the market.

Having said that we know a couple (late 60s) who have a large (5 bed, 3 recep.) and very 'desirable' property with a very large garden in a rural area up north that's beautiful but very exposed to cold winds. They admitted even years ago that it took a lot of heating. It has been on the market for ages but it doesn't seem to dawn on them that the kind of people who might have bought it 30 years ago (people like them) mostly can't even think of paying the sort of money they're asking now. However, they're 'waiting for the market to pick up'. ;)

This couple are 'swallows' - little place in South Africa for escaping the cold northern winters. But of course they still have to leave the heating on while they're away.

My findings are similar to yours.......and I couldn't believe it when a couple I know told me they kept the heating on at home whilst staying in warmer climes during the winter.....

I would say there are a fair few people with high mortgage debt or still renting who at the back of their mind hoping/relying on some sort of inheritance from a fully paid for property held somewhere in the family......but there is a high chance that the money will either be spent, will be split up into many parts including the tax man or they will be living that long most will be well into retirement before they get their bonus, value unknown. ;)

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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