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Uk Inflation Rate Falls To 2.4% In April From 2.8%

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The pound fell to $1.5184 from $1.5212 on the news, while the euro rose to 84.67p from 84.58p.

The fall came as traders interpreted the data as giving incoming governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, more leeway to stimulate economic growth.

FFS, lala land here we come. Oh sorry, we're here already.

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Sterling down half a cent as a result.

Why does lower inflation lead to a fall in sterling? I thought it would be the other way around. Is there an expectation that this will lead to more QE?

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Why does lower inflation lead to a fall in sterling? I thought it would be the other way around. Is there an expectation that this will lead to more QE?

It was priced in....now we expect inflation to rise....hence the fall as the expectation is pricing in.

thats what I learned on here.

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Tucked away in the inflation numbers are the version of the Consumer Price Index which includes the housing market or CPIH. The analysis below is not impressed with its performance.

Consumer Prices Index Housing

Last summer/autumn I was very critical of the methodology used in this measure which is called CPIH. If you look at today’s numbers you can see why.

In April 2013, the 12-month rate (the rate at which prices increased between April 2012 and April 2013) for CPIH grew by 2.2%, down from 2.6% in March.

Okay so we know that this is lower than the headline rate so house prices must be falling? Er well no..

In the 12 months to March 2013 UK house prices increased by 2.7%, up from a 1.9% increase in the 12 months to February 2013.

Not the same month as that is March rather than April but I suspect that the same will hold. Rather than a theoretical dissection of the position I thought it would be clearer to show the numbers and the contradictions they clearly imply.

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/why-didnt-the-uks-economic-contraction-and-then-stagnation-lead-to-falling-prices/

Surely not another inflation measure designed from the outset to show lower numbers?

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Tucked away in the inflation numbers are the version of the Consumer Price Index which includes the housing market or CPIH. The analysis below is not impressed with its performance.

http://www.mindfulmo...falling-prices/

Surely not another inflation measure designed from the outset to show lower numbers?

"Calling Thunderbird 6, your cynicism levels are in the red.....suggest you come back to the hanger for maintenance..."

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No need to worry too much about deflation.......Prices are still rising.....it's just that the rise between March and April 2013 was less than that between March and April 2012......anyway the continued debasement of sterling should give an inflationary twist later.

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No need to worry too much about deflation.......Prices are still rising.....it's just that the rise between March and April 2013 was less than that between March and April 2012......anyway the continued debasement of sterling should give an inflationary twist later.

Isn't it that the supposed rise in prices from April 2012 to April 2013 was less than the rise from March 2012 to March 2013?

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Why does lower inflation lead to a fall in sterling? I thought it would be the other way around. Is there an expectation that this will lead to more QE?

Of course, it gives Carnage greater scope to print!

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It's an index

2009 JAN 108.7

2009 FEB 109.6

2009 MAR 109.8

2009 APR 110.1

2009 MAY 110.7

2009 JUN 111

2009 JUL 110.9

2009 AUG 111.4

2009 SEP 111.5

2009 OCT 111.7

2009 NOV 112

2009 DEC 112.6

2010 JAN 112.4

2010 FEB 112.9

2010 MAR 113.5

2010 APR 114.2

2010 MAY 114.4

2010 JUN 114.6

2010 JUL 114.3

2010 AUG 114.9

2010 SEP 114.9

2010 OCT 115.2

2010 NOV 115.6

2010 DEC 116.8

2011 JAN 116.9

2011 FEB 117.8

2011 MAR 118.1

2011 APR 119.3

2011 MAY 119.5

2011 JUN 119.4

2011 JUL 119.4

2011 AUG 120.1

2011 SEP 120.9

2011 OCT 121

2011 NOV 121.2

2011 DEC 121.7

2012 JAN 121.1

2012 FEB 121.8

2012 MAR 122.2

2012 APR 122.9

2012 MAY 122.8

2012 JUN 122.3

2012 JUL 122.5

2012 AUG 123.1

2012 SEP 123.5

2012 OCT 124.2

2012 NOV 124.4

2012 DEC 125

2013 JAN 124.4

2013 FEB 125.2

2013 MAR 125.6

2013 APR 125.9

It's 2.4 this month because April is 125.9 up from 122.9.

125.9 - 122.9 = 3, divide the 3 by 122.9 and it's 2.4%

Since the 108.7 in Jan 2009 it's up 15.8%

125.9 - 108.7 = 17.2, divide the 17.2 by 108.7 and it's 15.8%

That's the £1 in your pocket worth about 84p in just over 4 years...... and they say families are struggling.... but this means we need more boosting the economy to create more inflation.

Edit for ONS link

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/cpi/consumer-price-indices/april-2013/cpi-time-series-data.html

Edited by Democorruptcy

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'The UK's inflation rate fell to 2.4% in April, according to the Office for National Statistics Ministry of Truth

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It's an index

2009 JAN 108.7

2009 FEB 109.6

2009 MAR 109.8

2009 APR 110.1

2009 MAY 110.7

2009 JUN 111

2009 JUL 110.9

2009 AUG 111.4

2009 SEP 111.5

2009 OCT 111.7

2009 NOV 112

2009 DEC 112.6

2010 JAN 112.4

2010 FEB 112.9

2010 MAR 113.5

2010 APR 114.2

2010 MAY 114.4

2010 JUN 114.6

2010 JUL 114.3

2010 AUG 114.9

2010 SEP 114.9

2010 OCT 115.2

2010 NOV 115.6

2010 DEC 116.8

2011 JAN 116.9

2011 FEB 117.8

2011 MAR 118.1

2011 APR 119.3

2011 MAY 119.5

2011 JUN 119.4

2011 JUL 119.4

2011 AUG 120.1

2011 SEP 120.9

2011 OCT 121

2011 NOV 121.2

2011 DEC 121.7

2012 JAN 121.1

2012 FEB 121.8

2012 MAR 122.2

2012 APR 122.9

2012 MAY 122.8

2012 JUN 122.3

2012 JUL 122.5

2012 AUG 123.1

2012 SEP 123.5

2012 OCT 124.2

2012 NOV 124.4

2012 DEC 125

2013 JAN 124.4

2013 FEB 125.2

2013 MAR 125.6

2013 APR 125.9

It's 2.4 this month because April is 125.9 up from 122.9.

125.9 - 122.9 = 3, divide the 3 by 122.9 and it's 2.4%

Since the 108.7 in Jan 2009 it's up 15.8%

125.9 - 108.7 = 17.2, divide the 17.2 by 108.7 and it's 15.8%

That's the £1 in your pocket worth about 84p in just over 4 years...... and they say families are struggling.... but this means we need more boosting the economy to create more inflation.

Edit for ONS link

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/cpi/consumer-price-indices/april-2013/cpi-time-series-data.html

Wonder what that index will be in another 4 years- Carney's plan laid bare below. Most people and commentators cite Japan as a situation to avoid, Carney thinks it's a blueprint for success:

Europe faces lost decade - Carney

Mark Carney, the incoming Bank of England Governor, has warned that Europe could face a decade of stagnation unless it takes the kind of bold measures seen in Japan.

----

In words that will underline his status as a monetary activist and fuel speculation that he will try to relaunch quantitative easing (QE) when he arrives in the UK, Mr Carney applauded Japan’s “bold policy experiment” to boost dramatically its own QE programme.

He said: “Europe can draw lessons from Japan on the dangers of half measures... Europe remains in recession. Deep challenges persist in its financial system. Without sustained and significant reforms, a decade of stagnation threatens.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10071951/Europe-faces-lost-decade-Carney.html

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Wonder what that index will be in another 4 years- Carney's plan laid bare below. Most people and commentators cite Japan as a situation to avoid, Carney thinks it's a blueprint for success:

http://www.telegraph...ade-Carney.html

The Carney plan?

http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/2013/04/25/japan-is-insolvent-but-please-dont-worry/

To be blunt, the Japanese government and the BoJ are engaging in the most high stakes game of poker imaginable. Virtually everyone accepts that Japanese public finances are more or less beyond repair and that short of printing money day and night, the Japanese government is effectively both broke and insolvent. There simply is not a realistic chance of the current debt ever being repaid, and there is a very real chance that any future rise in interest rates will push interest payments on government debt up to entirely unsustainable levels vis-a-vis tax revenues, after which only debt restructuring (default) represents a realistic way out.

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I was trying to get my head around why the pound was dropping from lower inflation so thanks for clearing that up guys. So after Carney's idolism of Japan - the scene is set. Turn printers from stun to kill.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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