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Hpc Soon To Be Hpi With Help To Buy 2014?

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Will the initial sign of this, be a shortage of properties across different regions, as sellers postpone sales until after January 2014?

The media, particularly newscasts, was full of warnings a la Mervyn King over the weekend.

Is a new property bubble absolutely on the cards for 2014?

Will there be a catastrophic HPC from January 2017, when the Government stimulus will allegedly end? Or will it come in 2019 when the 5 year zero interest on the Government 15% mortgage contribution ends?

Is this a HPC postponed once again?

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Who knows but quite a few, including myself predicted that FLS would lead to HPI, however according to the Land Reg prices are lower now than when the scheme was introduced (even though they have risen every month - see LR thread :lol: ). So quite happy to have called than one wrongly.

If Gidiot backtracks and decides to charge a lot for the mortgage guarantee, we could potentially have the comical situation of a flood of pent up supply coupled with static/lower demand forcing prices down. Oh and of course potential buyers will on average be a bit poorer by then too.

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Is the bond market going to let BOE print to oblivion?

Our government is broke, the BOE really has little do to with retail loans, and the high street banks are both technically and morally bankrupt.

Mr Carney is the wild card.

What is up his sleeve? Negative interest rates?

What other tools are at Gidiot and Carney's disposal? Sack state jobs, abolish or raid pensions, daylight robbery?

House prices are of little concern... most don't qualify, nor can they afford to qualify because these are strictly REPAYMENT mortgages back by Gidiot.

Edited by cashinmattress

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Is the bond market going to let BOE print to oblivion?

Our government is broke, the BOE really has little do to with retail loans, and the high street banks are both technically and morally bankrupt.

Mr Carney is the wild card.

What is up his sleeve? Negative interest rates?

What other tools are at Gidiot and Carney's disposal? Sack state jobs, abolish or raid pensions, daylight robbery?

House prices are of little concern... most don't qualify, nor can they afford to qualify because these are strictly REPAYMENT mortgages back by Gidiot.

They'll print to oblivion. Start by making MBS purchases like Benny, then start buying REITs and stock ETFs like Abe to prop up those asset classes. A new deal for pensioners i.e the flat rate pension will be brought forward. MIRAS will be reintroduced. Plus inflation busting payrises for the public sector and the minimum wage will get kicked up sharply too.

Another £200bn QE before May 2015 is my guess. UK ratings downgrade to A-. All talk of austerity quietly forgotten as the country 'builds on a platform of success'. *

* Edit: I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

Edited by zugzwang

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I posted a similar question on a stock market thread over the weekend but no one responded to it. I wrote this:

What I am having trouble getting my head around is just how inflated the DOW/NASDAQ currently are - and how they have pulled up the FTSE, etc - and increasing voices of alarm that stocks are in a bubble, might should correct, might soon crash... with Mr. Carney arriving in July and everyone thinking that he is going to print like Abe in Japan.

The Japan printing has:

1. Crushed the Yen.

2. Driven up Japanese stocks.

3. Driven up Japanese house prices.So we have already hugely inflated stock markets and Carney has not yet begun to print - is a crash ahead or will we see what has happened in Japan happen in the UK? 

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Most people are scared about their job security and are seeing essential living costs inflate faster than their wages year after year with no end in sight. They are also carrying a lot of debt from the boom years.

This doesn't seem like an environment in which many people will think "I know what I'll do today, I'll go and borrow 5x joint income to buy a house".

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I hope housing costs don't keep rising. Unfortunately the government believes that high housing costs is the route to prosperity. Spending more than half you income on basic shelter will make you rich, apparently. So maybe the government will force up living costs again next year. That would be wonderful, wouldn't it?

So far this month my bank has gone bust, probably related to idiotic housing loans, and my savings are worth even less, thanks to house prices being driven up by the state. My savings are still being stolen by zero percent interest rates, because the state is forcing down interest rates. Sometimes it feels like the state has a personal vendetta against me.

In any case I definitely wont be voting Tory again, that's for sure. They have done nothing for me. UKIP next time.

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Who knows what the outcome will be.

I suspect the aim of the scheme is to keep prices stable or ensure falls aren't significant ie 1% - 5% range. My feeling is they want prices to gradually decline over the long term. So far after around 6 years since this crisis hit the worlds financial markets they have avoided a catastrophic correction so far. Can they keep it up? Who knows but they'll try at all costs.

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Will the initial sign of this, be a shortage of properties across different regions, as sellers postpone sales until after January 2014?

The media, particularly newscasts, was full of warnings a la Mervyn King over the weekend.

Is a new property bubble absolutely on the cards for 2014?

Will there be a catastrophic HPC from January 2017, when the Government stimulus will allegedly end? Or will it come in 2019 when the 5 year zero interest on the Government 15% mortgage contribution ends?

Is this a HPC postponed once again?

If the bit in bold above happens I would say that would cause a large over supply with a limited amount of buyers,it dose not make a good recipe for HPI

Help to buy is just a shared equity scheme akin to shared ownership ,so the question I ask myself is how successful have the many shared ownership schemes been so far

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I posted a similar question on a stock market thread over the weekend but no one responded to it. I wrote this:

What I am having trouble getting my head around is just how inflated the DOW/NASDAQ currently are - and how they have pulled up the FTSE, etc - and increasing voices of alarm that stocks are in a bubble, might should correct, might soon crash... with Mr. Carney arriving in July and everyone thinking that he is going to print like Abe in Japan.

The Japan printing has:

1. Crushed the Yen.

2. Driven up Japanese stocks.

3. Driven up Japanese house prices.So we have already hugely inflated stock markets and Carney has not yet begun to print - is a crash ahead or will we see what has happened in Japan happen in the UK?

The stock market isn't the real economy. The two are barely related, in fact it's not unknown for them to be anti-correlated for years on end. Carney probably doesn't want or need stock prices at an all-time high, if he prints he'll be printing to buy govt debt and keep gilt yields suppressed. What he has to ensure, working with his inside men at the investment banks, is that the right people are left holding the bag when the rug gets pulled i.e. pension funds, day traders and overseas investors. If he can do that then he can start all over again. The underlying economy and domestic corporates will clearly sustain some collateral damage in a crash but the additional productive wealth created during the bubble should more than compensate the paper losses. At least in theory. As long as central banks continue to print like lunatics then stock markets around the world will keep rising inexorably.

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Unfortunately the government believes that high housing costs is the route to prosperity

But they also claim that a flexible competitive workforce is the route to prosperity- so how do we lower our wage costs while paying more for our houses?

It seems absurd to berate the population for essentially being too expensive to compete internationally while doing all you can to keep that populations cost of living as high as you can by propping up housing costs.

We seem to be trapped between the need to lower our wages to compete and the need to maintain the 'value' of our debt encumbered assets.

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Most people are scared about their job security and are seeing essential living costs inflate faster than their wages year after year with no end in sight. They are also carrying a lot of debt from the boom years.

This doesn't seem like an environment in which many people will think "I know what I'll do today, I'll go and borrow 5x joint income to buy a house".

Is it not the case that there is pent up demand from first time buyers who are either saving or can't/wont save and this gives them an immediate in from 2014? These first time buyers would then have a positive multiplier on the housing market generally, so the bubble starts inflating again!

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In any case I definitely wont be voting Tory again, that's for sure. They have done nothing for me. UKIP next time.

Um, you really need to do some googling about what Farage's lot think about house prices. :(

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I posted a similar question on a stock market thread over the weekend but no one responded to it. I wrote this:

What I am having trouble getting my head around is just how inflated the DOW/NASDAQ currently are - and how they have pulled up the FTSE, etc - and increasing voices of alarm that stocks are in a bubble, might should correct, might soon crash... with Mr. Carney arriving in July and everyone thinking that he is going to print like Abe in Japan.

The Japan printing has:

1. Crushed the Yen.

2. Driven up Japanese stocks.

3. Driven up Japanese house prices.So we have already hugely inflated stock markets and Carney has not yet begun to print - is a crash ahead or will we see what has happened in Japan happen in the UK? 

Haven't Japanese House prices fallen massively since peak?

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Is it not the case that there is pent up demand from first time buyers who are either saving or can't/wont save and this gives them an immediate in from 2014? These first time buyers would then have a positive multiplier on the housing market generally, so the bubble starts inflating again!

I estimate H2B would be worth about 50K to me in the place I'd want to buy. That's quite a discount to factor in.

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Haven't Japanese House prices fallen massively since peak?

Yes, since peak they have but since the Japs started printing earlier this year apparently house asking prices have shot up.in Japan. This is my fear about Carney who, as we all know, created a massive housing bubble in Canada.

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I estimate H2B would be worth about 50K to me in the place I'd want to buy. That's quite a discount to factor in.

And if it pushes the price you pay up by £100k?

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And if it pushes the price you pay up by £100k?

There's the rub.

My understanding is that lenders won't be handing out mortgages to the poor even with govt help, so this will end up helping the better off like me. It's moronic.

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I estimate H2B would be worth about 50K to me in the place I'd want to buy. That's quite a discount to factor in.

I'd be interested to know how you arrive at this figure?

My understanding is that H2B is an insurance policy for the banks, and not an interest free loan for borrowers. The aim is to free up capital, not to make loans cheaper for borrowers. There will be costs involved which the banks will surely pass on. If there are any savings to be made the banks have every incentive to pocket them. Indeed, there is no reason to presume that borrowers will ever know that their loan is guaranteed via H2B.

Edited by lastlaugh

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Um, you really need to do some googling about what Farage's lot think about house prices. :(

You might be right. But at least they haven't directly attacked me and my family yet. By deliberately making housing costs incredibly high this government and the last one both have. UKIP might do the same, but what is the alternative? If you can suggest a party that will take the boot of the state off my throat I'd love to hear it.

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Um, you really need to do some googling about what Farage's lot think about house prices. :(

Farage is an entertaining windbag, but it is rather concerning that even with his quote worthy speech making ability he fails where it counts the most, vetting his party members.

The UKIP has a long way to go until they are professional and legitimate in politics; or at least enough so to keep tabs on and censor their members openly homophobic and xenophobic public outbursts.

Edited by cashinmattress

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Yes, since peak they have but since the Japs started printing earlier this year apparently house asking prices have shot up.in Japan. This is my fear about Carney who, as we all know, created a massive housing bubble in Canada.

Some areas 1%, one of them 9%, if I am reading this correctly. Good point you make, obviously they're copying Mervo and Gidiot More here http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324789504578380473664467496.html (but news story is not bang up to date)

Edited by inflating

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http://

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324789504578380473664467496.html

Analysts said real estate could do even better this year, with the possibility overall prices may even rise, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tries to haul the nation out of a decade-and-a-half long deflationary funk.

Funk - a typical definition:

funk

n.

1. cowering fear; state of great fright or terror.

2. a dejected mood; depression.

v.t.

3. to be afraid of.

4. to frighten.

5. to shrink from; try to shirk.

v.i.

6. to shrink or quail in fear.

So according to the wsj cheaper prices equals fear and dejection so according to them higher prices must mean bravery or something suchlike. Not much of a justification for inflation - in fact they've funked it.

I'm pretty sure they don't intend another meaning of "funk"

funk

Music

a. An earthy quality appreciated in music such as jazz or soul.

b. A type of popular music combining elements of jazz, blues, and soul and characterized by syncopated rhythm and a heavy, repetitive bass line.

Edited by billybong

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It's not a discount, you'd just owe the same amount to 2 lenders instead of 1 ?

If £50k is being borrowed via the Government, doesn't zero interest on £50k over 5 years qualify as some form of discount?

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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