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InlikeFlynn

Land Registry House Price Index

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From Twitter. Pre-release of April's data. Full data and regional breakdown released on 30th May.

"April HPI shows a monthly increase of 0.4%. Average house price in England and Wales now £161,458. Full #HPI out 30 Ma"

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Interestingly, last months data gave the average house price as £161,793. The 0.4% rise must be derived from seasonal adjustment.

Assuming there is no seasonal adjustment on the annual figure, I calculate the annual rise to be 0.7% y-o-y.

Edited by InlikeFlynn

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I wouldnt be surprised if prices do shoot up in the next few months. The government actions have most people on here conspiring buying so I would imagine that's magnified 10 fold for other non hoc people.

Does it not feel like every month prices go up in these indices yet we are still in the low 160s where it has been for years

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I wouldnt be surprised if prices do shoot up in the next few months. The government actions have most people on here conspiring buying so I would imagine that's magnified 10 fold for other non hoc people.

Does it not feel like every month prices go up in these indices yet we are still in the low 160s where it has been for years

I don't know about most people, it's had the opposite effect on me. The harder they try to convince me to buy, the more they convince me not to.

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Lets look at some facts.

Asking prices rising.

Actual selling prices flat.

First time buyers being encouraged to buy new builds.

I would have to conclude that sale volumes of 2nd hand houses are about to collapse...shortly followed by prices.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Does it not feel like every month prices go up in these indices yet we are still in the low 160s where it has been for years

Prices have not 'gone up' for 5 years in any of the indices bar the asking price one. Actual sale prices have been flat ( amazingly ) and dropping in real terms.

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Prices have not 'gone up' for 5 years in any of the indices bar the asking price one. Actual sale prices have been flat ( amazingly ) and dropping in real terms.

"Stock House prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." :lol:

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My wife was speaking to a 'friend' who told her that if she didn't by a house here (UK) she would have nothing here to show for.

Sort of people who pay credence to Rightmove/Daily Express/likes of Ian Cowie

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Does it not feel like every month prices go up in these indices yet we are still in the low 160s where it has been for years

Such are the wonders of LR's downwards revisions - most of the reported figures over the past 12 months (including last month's) have since been revised down, hence LR - the index that rises when its flat.

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My wife was speaking to a 'friend' who told her that if she didn't by a house here (UK) she would have nothing here to show for.

Sort of people who pay credence to Rightmove/Daily Express/likes of Ian Cowie

I don't often talk about house prices with people I meet, but when they find out I'm renting, the usual response is a shocked "You've been renting for six years? That must have cost you a fortune in rent".

My reply, explaining that the interest I've received during that time on the money that I would otherwise have had tied up in a house that would have now been worth £50K less than I paid for it, has paid the rent with about £100K to spare, never fails to draw a pained expression and halt the conversation in it's tracks :D.

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Interestingly, last months data gave the average house price as £161,793. The 0.4% rise must be derived from seasonal adjustment.

Assuming there is no seasonal adjustment on the annual figure, I calculate the annual rise to be 0.7% y-o-y.

Interestingly, last months data gave the average house price as £161,793. The 0.4% rise must be derived from seasonal adjustment.

Assuming there is no seasonal adjustment on the annual figure, I calculate the annual rise to be 0.7% y-o-y.

Hmm, £161,458 from the last figure is a drop of 0.2% versus the reported rise of 0.4%. So last month's figure has been revised from £161,793 to £160,815, which conveniently avoided last month showing a m-o-m drop too. What's a grand between friends, eh?

March 2013: Avg. Price £161,793

Change:

Monthly 0.1%

Annual 0.9%

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I was at a christening yesterday and lots of people my age - mid 30s - were moaning about their housing situation.

Now we've had, or are having, children we've realised that space is at a premium and that houses we were raised in are completely out of our reach financially. Nobody could understand how prices were so high given local wages.

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Hmm, £161,458 from the last figure is a drop of 0.2% versus the reported rise of 0.4%. So last month's figure has been revised from £161,793 to £160,815, which conveniently avoided last month showing a m-o-m drop too. What's a grand between friends, eh?

March 2013: Avg. Price £161,793

Change:

Monthly 0.1%

Annual 0.9%

I may be wrong but I don't think the m-o-m calculation is as straightforward as that: the land reg uses seasonal adjustment to try and smooth the data between months. The y-o-y figure should be a straightforward sum however.

That said, the land reg is always subject to revisions. There are good reasons for this. The main one is that they do not receive all the sales data within a couple of weeks of completion: if you look at the full dataset released each month, the majority of sales are from the month in question but there are also significant numbers of entries relating to historical sales going back years that have only just been submitted by inefficient solicitors. As a result, each months release includes revisions to the whole data series. In this respect the land reg index is at a disadvantage to the lenders indices: the lenders have all the data for their calculations in-house.

The mistake, I think, is to identify the land registry revisions as some sort of conspiracy to overstate the index. The index is only as good as the data that are provided and it is clearly better to revise the index in the light of new data than to stick with an earlier less accurate estimate.

edit: spelling and grammar

Edited by InlikeFlynn

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I may be wrong but I don't think the m-o-m calculation is as straightforward as that: the land reg uses seasonal adjustment to try and smooth the data between months. The y-o-y figure should be a straightforward sum however.

That said, the land reg is always subject to revisions. There are good reasons for this. The main one is that they do not receive all the sales data within a couple of weeks of completion: if you look at the full dataset released each month, the majority of sales are from the month in question but there are also significant numbers of entries relating to historical sales going back years that have only just been submitted by inefficient solicitors. As a result, each months release includes revisions to the whole data series. In this respect the land reg index is at a disadvantage to the lenders indices: the lenders have all the data for their calculations in-house.

The mistake, I think, is to identify the land registry revisions as some sort of conspiracy to overstate the index. The index is only as good as the data that are provided and it is clearly better to revise the index in the light of new data than to stick with an earlier less accurate estimate.

edit: spelling and grammar

I don't suppose anyone has a problem with revisions to improve a dataset, but the issue seems to be that the revisions happen more in one direction than another. Announce a headline m-o-m change, then revise it down quietly in time for the next month's release which conveniently pumps up that next m-o-m figure. Not sure that's so much a conspiracy as a nailed-on fact.

The Land Reg do not have a 'clean sheet' in their use of stats/data either- see Democorruptcy's previous highlight of switching between quoting m-o-m and y-o-y depending on which is most likely to show a rise (in their own words as I recall!). There are concerns about the rigour with with some of the sales are examined- Free Trader has previously pointed out the headline largest sale in a given month was a straightforward typo moving the decimal place in the sale amount, and that many other large-value sales have been of commercial sites rather than residential. Clearly they cannot examine every entry in detail, but if they can't be bothered to do the minimum to explore the previous sold history of the highest value sale in the country that month (which was mentioned in the press release) then I think it is legitimate to question how rigorous some of their crosschecking methods are.

The seasonal adjustment changes the index, which is then used to get the m-o-m comparison, it's not applied afterwards- i.e. the m-o-m changes should correspond to the prices released every month. Free Trader has previously explained why y-o-y numbers can be subject to net seasonal adjustment effects in the Land Reg index, it's a result of the number of Fridays in a given month. More transactions are concluded on Fridays than any other day.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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My reply, explaining that the interest I've received during that time on the money that I would otherwise have had tied up in a house that would have now been worth £50K less than I paid for it, has paid the rent with about £100K to spare, never fails to draw a pained expression and halt the conversation in it's tracks :D.

Wot? You explaining how much you've made in bank interest compared to how much you'd have lost if you had it tied up in a house, drawing a pained expression ? Surely not! :lol:

Only kidding. I know you can take it. :)

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I have to say it is quite annoying the relative masses of the earth and the sun. If I was God, I would alter them such that we didn't get these problems with leap years, odd sized months, different amounts of daylight etc. He's literally provided a charlatan's charter.

but then youd be either revolving into Christine Lagarde or Arnie in Batman, i prefer my porridge just right

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I have to say it is quite annoying the relative masses of the earth and the sun. If I was God, I would alter them such that we didn't get these problems with leap years, odd sized months, different amounts of daylight etc. He's literally provided a charlatan's charter.

I've never heard it put like that before, but you're spot on. Was God an EA?

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In December 2012 the average property price was £162,080, prices have risen every month and now the average property price is (March 2013) £161,793. So you are correct the prices can fall but the index shows sustained growth in prices ... chocolate rations have also increased this month and tractor production is at an all time high.

I'm thinking of reporting them to trading standards..... :lol:

Is that actually true, they have reported 12 monthly increases but actual selling prices are down after 12 rises ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I don't often talk about house prices with people I meet, but when they find out I'm renting, the usual response is a shocked "You've been renting for six years? That must have cost you a fortune in rent".

My reply, explaining that the interest I've received during that time on the money that I would otherwise have had tied up in a house that would have now been worth £50K less than I paid for it, has paid the rent with about £100K to spare, never fails to draw a pained expression and halt the conversation in it's tracks :D.

Well, I can't pay my rent out of unearned income but I am in a stronger position to buy today than at any point in the last few years. Something that would not have happened had I re-bought at some point since 2005.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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