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Walter

Getting Married - When To Buy?

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Hi,

I'm getting married in the summer, and we are looking to get a house together in the near future. I'd like to know what the general sentiment regarding prices is in South-East Belfast. We have been keeping our eye on a few houses, quite a few of which have gone 'Sale Agreed' in the past month or so.

Which is the best house price survey to refer to (UUJ, etc), as I'm aware that some don't consider repos, etc? Is there any data on area specific price changes, or is the sample size too low to be much use? It looks like there is activity, but if activity is increasing as prices continue to fall we wouldn't be too worried about waiting another year.

Anyone fancy predicting price changes between now and spring 2014 in SE Belfast?

Cheers!

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Hi,

I'm getting married in the summer, and we are looking to get a house together in the near future. I'd like to know what the general sentiment regarding prices is in South-East Belfast. We have been keeping our eye on a few houses, quite a few of which have gone 'Sale Agreed' in the past month or so.

Which is the best house price survey to refer to (UUJ, etc), as I'm aware that some don't consider repos, etc? Is there any data on area specific price changes, or is the sample size too low to be much use? It looks like there is activity, but if activity is increasing as prices continue to fall we wouldn't be too worried about waiting another year.

Anyone fancy predicting price changes between now and spring 2014 in SE Belfast?

Cheers!

Congratulations and welcome.

Prices will not rise in the next 12 months. (my opinion) Further falls are necessary and likely.

The authoritative whole of market report is the RPPI below. Update will issue early next week.

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/housepriceindex/NI_RPPI_Statistical_Report_Q4_2012.pdf

Key Findings

Over the year to the end of December 2012 residential property prices fell by 13 %

Between Q3 (July - September) 2012 and Q4 (October - December) 2012 residential property prices fell by 3 % ;

Around 3,700 verified residential properties sold between October and December 2012 , a 20 % increase on the number sold in the

fourth quarter of 2011;

The number of verified sales recorded is the highest since quarter four 2007; and

Residential property prices are now 13 % lower than Q1 2005 and less than half of the peak value of the housing market in Q3

2007 ;

UUJ output is an untrustworthy sample based marketing tool for EAs, a bank, a housing authority 'overseeing' 92% segregated social housing and a former poly that promotes housing as an investment. Avoid - unless you like a good laugh or are an EA.

For what it is worth, I also don't see the uptick in sales - from very low levels - continuing (even with co-ownership subsidy). Not only because there are muddy waters over UK govt schemes and bedroom tax applying here, but sentiment is shot and the economy is cr@p and getting worse. There's only so many ftbs and investors that can keep activity going as prices crash. Home mover numbers are at 1974 levels.

Keep us posted.

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One word of warning the NI RPPI Report, mentioned above includes all repo's, auctions and houses that can require £30k to £40k spent on them. Most other Gov reports exclude such sales and therefore this report lags behind. That said it is the most detailed and inclusive, including house sales as low as £20k.

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One word of warning the NI RPPI Report, mentioned above includes all repo's, auctions and houses that can require £30k to £40k spent on them. Most other Gov reports exclude such sales and therefore this report lags behind. That said it is the most detailed and inclusive, including house sales as low as £20k.

It's worth pointing out that the UU report is compiled by estate agents who select which sale to report. This can be seen clearly with the transaction figures for quarter 4 2012.

UU report had a sample size of 1357 properties.

NI RPPI recorded over 3700 actual sales. Nearly 3 times as many.

As for the part about houses requiring 30-40k of work, this will be the case with some properties in both reports. The only other government report I am aware of is the ONS report which gives a Q4 2012 average of 125k. The ONS use seasonal adjustments and mix adjustments to come up with a figure and show prices dropping 7.7% in the 12 month to February 2013.

Anyway good luck with the wedding and congratulations.

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Residential Property Price Index Methodology

what LPS term as “the definitive house price index” for Northern Ireland.

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/housepriceindex/LPSHousePriceIndexMethodologyFinal.pdf

The National Statistician’s review of House Price Statistics which was published in December 2010 recommended the production of a reliable mix-adjusted House Price Index for Northern Ireland based on actual sale prices. There is currently no other reliable HPI based on actual sales evidence a vailable within the province.

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Residential Property Price Index Methodology

what LPS term as “the definitive house price index” for Northern Ireland.

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/housepriceindex/LPSHousePriceIndexMethodologyFinal.pdf

The National Statistician’s review of House Price Statistics which was published in December 2010 recommended the production of a reliable mix-adjusted House Price Index for Northern Ireland based on actual sale prices. There is currently no other reliable HPI based on actual sales evidence a vailable within the province.

Indeed they did.

However, I have to wonder why the Office for National Statistics in their recent publication 'Official House Price Statistics Explained' needed to state the following directly about this report.

However, the price levels it reports are not directly comparable to those of the ONS as different aggregation methods and data sets are used.

Don't get me wrong. I believe the NI RPPI is a wonderful and long needed report using data that it refused to release, prior to this. However as a comparable tool it fails as no other report, official or otherwise includes 'Data Sets' including all the auction, distressed and what I would call part houses as house sales.

Therefore, it is my belief that the report gives a distorted view of the market. It could have so easily filtered these sales out and then have given a definitive open market average price which would have been beyond dispute. I am quite sure that price would have been below the UUJ average.

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First time I've ever heard the availability of MORE data to be described as a distortion.

Do you not think a better idea would be to open up the land registry? Then there would be no need to argue the validity of various reports?

3700 actual sales compared to 1357 selected by a group who's livelihood depends on higher prices and transaction levels.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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It's worth pointing out that the UU report is compiled by estate agents who select which sale to report. This can be seen clearly with the transaction figures for quarter 4 2012.

UU report had a sample size of 1357 properties.

NI RPPI recorded over 3700 actual sales. Nearly 3 times as many.

As for the part about houses requiring 30-40k of work, this will be the case with some properties in both reports. The only other government report I am aware of is the ONS report which gives a Q4 2012 average of 125k. The ONS use seasonal adjustments and mix adjustments to come up with a figure and show prices dropping 7.7% in the 12 month to February 2013.

Anyway good luck with the wedding and congratulations.

the UUJ report is compiled by the UUJ using data provided by some estate agents. It is quite evident that all estate agents don't return the data from the transaction figures. They always state that the figure is the 'sample size' not the total transactions that have taken place.

I agree with earlier posts that, with the publication of the NI RPPI data there is perhaps little need for the UUJ reports.

In their defence, with the refusal of the LR to release data it was the only measure there was that covered more than single lender data. When one of our posters compared the data from the UUJ, Nationwide and the Halifax they all appeared to show similar drops. There were timing lags but there was no indication that the UUJ report was in any way hiding the drops. They are limited to the estate agents that take the time to send the data in. If, as I expect the agents closer to Belfast are more interested in this then there averages would be higher. this is reflected in the average at the peak. I think the UUJ's average was the highest then and in percentage terms it followed the others down, going by the reports and analysis performed by a poster in here at the time.

The other ONS report showed prices falling at 7.7% over the last 12 months compared to the NI RPPI report that showed 13% over a similar period. One has an average price of £125k and the NI RPPI has an average price of £30k less. Something wrong somewhere.

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First time I've ever heard the availability of MORE data to be described as a distortion.

Do you not think a better idea would be to open up the land registry? Then there would be no need to argue the validity of various reports?

3700 actual sales compared to 1357 selected by a group who's livelihood depends on higher prices and transaction levels.

The importance of these reports, to me is the information the provide to the banks and mortgages houses in London. Decisions around the quota's etc are made on the back of reports on house prices.

If they look at the reports in the north of England that exclude these Data sets then a less negative, or even positive figure may be returned. The NI report is highly likely to continue to report a high negative figure. The data, whilst classified as 'official ONS figures' are, as they say themselves 'are not directly comparable to those of the ONS'.

The lenders in London, and even those closer to home will not know that the surveys are not comparable.

I believe this is a self inflicted wound and yes, it it is not comparable with the majority of other 'official' reports, because of a wider data set or, for that matter narrower, then I believe the result is distorted.

Absolutely. there is no reason why we should not have the access to LR data that other parts of the UK have. I don't particularly think it would make much difference but we should have it. Personally I wouldn't particularly like anyone knowing what I paid for a house but so what. If it is available in GB it should be here to.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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