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Spinger17

Food For Thought!

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First of all Hello!

I'm new to the board and have been reading some of the stuff so far for most of the day, very interesting! So I'm pretty glad I found the forum!

I've been reading some level headed / logical opinions and was hoping someone could perhaps shed some light/experience on properties with good potential in regards to yield and resale value but those that come with immediate snags upon purchase.

I noticed damp in the property and discovered the wiring is also dated, thus setbacks already. I seen some of you talking about buyers vs sellers and how certain buyers are not giving in to the sellers and that the prices are still inflated or bubbles, however in regards to the negotiated price of said house [for Belfast as a whole] it's about -30% RV and [for the district in Belfast] -20% .

I've done as much homework as possible and from a long-term investment perspective it definitely looks attractive and I've calculated in the utmost worse case scenario that the rent yield would be somewhere between 5.4 - 6 % [after work has been carried out] and profits within the next 2-3 years at about 10% given the fact it's under RV and the work needed. Basically with the discounted price the work is paid for to bring it back up to RV [Currently] and with modernization could arguably even boost price, right?

It's my first big investment and I was just curious to know some thoughts on situations where the investment, after some thought, seems fair and plausible however with the lingering risk that it could simply just go belly up with regards to the work [going excessively over budget - time and general headache] and all the dodgy damp proof 'specialists' floating about. Other things to consider etc.

Some of the underlying assumptions;

Finances secured [both house + needed work]

Quotes for said work obtained and affordable

Simply trying to gather a few different opinions. :D

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Suggest visiting the singing pig. This is house price crash. Adios and good luck with the "investment". Most of here think of houses as homes.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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If you are thinking of buying a house as a quick way of making money forget about it.

If however you are buying as a 20 year plan to help support your retirement or as a start for one of your kids then yes that can work. Remember the cheapest one may be cheap for a reason and unless you are a tradesman you don't want to be taking on a house wit

H problems.

To be a god landlord you need to look after the house and the tenant and both can be challenging and rewarding. At the end of the term you will want the rent to have covered the capital, the interest and the costs. This is however not always possible and you will have from time to time to chip in. In saying that whit house prices at their current levels you could be ok. It's down to personal opinion as to whether you will get an even better deal in a years time.

I am a new house builder.

I would advise, if u are buying for a 20 year period to buy new or near new. As so, as in a car look at the brand - who built it.

Good luck. Every other successful industry looks after its customers. So look after your tenants.

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Present day capital gains unlikely, which is what must BTL's had been looking for in the past.

chance of some **** smashing your kitchen/bathroom to pieces, or major snags, or some major financial shitstorm appearing in the future possible. I know of people who have had their BTL's smashed up.

returns likely to be around the same as a good savings rate after all costs are taken into account (and above possibly happening)

If you are a plumber,sparky or general builder might make it worthwhile.

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First of all Hello!

I'm new to the board and have been reading some of the stuff so far for most of the day, very interesting! So I'm pretty glad I found the forum!

I've been reading some level headed / logical opinions and was hoping someone could perhaps shed some light/experience on properties with good potential in regards to yield and resale value but those that come with immediate snags upon purchase.

I noticed damp in the property and discovered the wiring is also dated, thus setbacks already. I seen some of you talking about buyers vs sellers and how certain buyers are not giving in to the sellers and that the prices are still inflated or bubbles, however in regards to the negotiated price of said house [for Belfast as a whole] it's about -30% RV and [for the district in Belfast] -20% .

I've done as much homework as possible and from a long-term investment perspective it definitely looks attractive and I've calculated in the utmost worse case scenario that the rent yield would be somewhere between 5.4 - 6 % [after work has been carried out] and profits within the next 2-3 years at about 10% given the fact it's under RV and the work needed. Basically with the discounted price the work is paid for to bring it back up to RV [Currently] and with modernization could arguably even boost price, right?

It's my first big investment and I was just curious to know some thoughts on situations where the investment, after some thought, seems fair and plausible however with the lingering risk that it could simply just go belly up with regards to the work [going excessively over budget - time and general headache] and all the dodgy damp proof 'specialists' floating about. Other things to consider etc.

Some of the underlying assumptions;

Finances secured [both house + needed work]

Quotes for said work obtained and affordable

Simply trying to gather a few different opinions. :D

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Present day capital gains unlikely, which is what must BTL's had been looking for in the past.

chance of some **** smashing your kitchen/bathroom to pieces, or major snags, or some major financial shitstorm appearing in the future possible. I know of people who have had their BTL's smashed up.

returns likely to be around the same as a good savings rate after all costs are taken into account (and above possibly happening)

If you are a plumber,sparky or general builder might make it worthwhile.

Getting your house smashed up is pretty rare.

If the house you buy at tadays value, with a pretty good yield is paid off in 20 years, with little additional input then you will have obtained alot more than you deposit will receive on an account. If capital increases come along, which is quite likely in the period we are talking about that's a bonus, and a bonus you will, like all other gains pay tax upon.

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Getting your house smashed up is pretty rare.

If the house you buy at tadays value, with a pretty good yield is paid off in 20 years, with little additional input then you will have obtained alot more than you deposit will receive on an account. If capital increases come along, which is quite likely in the period we are talking about that's a bonus, and a bonus you will, like all other gains pay tax upon.

What utter bull tripe.

Here Mystic Meg can you give me the numbers for this Friday night's Euros?

Or mayber you can give me a ride in the Delorean Mr McFly?

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First of all Hello!

I'm new to the board and have been reading some of the stuff so far for most of the day, very interesting! So I'm pretty glad I found the forum!

I've been reading some level headed / logical opinions and was hoping someone could perhaps shed some light/experience on properties with good potential in regards to yield and resale value but those that come with immediate snags upon purchase.

I noticed damp in the property and discovered the wiring is also dated, thus setbacks already. I seen some of you talking about buyers vs sellers and how certain buyers are not giving in to the sellers and that the prices are still inflated or bubbles, however in regards to the negotiated price of said house [for Belfast as a whole] it's about -30% RV and [for the district in Belfast] -20% .

I've done as much homework as possible and from a long-term investment perspective it definitely looks attractive and I've calculated in the utmost worse case scenario that the rent yield would be somewhere between 5.4 - 6 % [after work has been carried out] and profits within the next 2-3 years at about 10% given the fact it's under RV and the work needed. Basically with the discounted price the work is paid for to bring it back up to RV [Currently] and with modernization could arguably even boost price, right?

It's my first big investment and I was just curious to know some thoughts on situations where the investment, after some thought, seems fair and plausible however with the lingering risk that it could simply just go belly up with regards to the work [going excessively over budget - time and general headache] and all the dodgy damp proof 'specialists' floating about. Other things to consider etc.

Some of the underlying assumptions;

Finances secured [both house + needed work]

Quotes for said work obtained and affordable

Simply trying to gather a few different opinions. :D

You've come to the wrong place if you're hoping from some helpful or constructive suggestions.

You may get it from one or two but it'll just be abuse from the majority.

As a new poster you are under suspicion of being an EA, an EA pretending to be a 1st time buyer to talk the market up, or an unsavvy investor. (Savvy investors will already know the answers to what you have put forward.

Your question does highlight a point I believe though, that with repos and prices at their lowest for years it is attracting investors to the market rather than owner occupiers.

Do your homework, I genuinely offer you the best of luck given that if your first investment goes wrong it could spell a large financial chain around your neck or financial ruin.

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I would second what Ausdave is saying. Do plenty or research and talk to people who have held rented houses for a long time, not the accidental landlords from 2006.

By the looks of things more people will be renting than did in the past.

And don't let the abuse put you off. You are very welcome to post here and learn from others.

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is there any point in asking you to explain.

No VI there probably isn't because even after the biggest financial crash in history, interest rates at their lowest ever, banks seizing depositor’s wealth, housing benefit cuts, increased regulation and N.I. status as probably the most heavily subsidised country in Western Europe, you still endorse people taking on a 25 year debt, when 70% of the private rental market receives housing benefit and is therefore reliant on continued support from a bankrupt government.

Perhaps you have other nuggets of financial wisdom? Some magic beans to sell? Bulgarian apartments maybe?

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No VI there probably isn't because even after the biggest financial crash in history, interest rates at their lowest ever, banks seizing depositor’s wealth, housing benefit cuts, increased regulation and N.I. status as probably the most heavily subsidised country in Western Europe, you still endorse people taking on a 25 year debt, when 70% of the private rental market receives housing benefit and is therefore reliant on continued support from a bankrupt government.

Perhaps you have other nuggets of financial wisdom? Some magic beans to sell? Bulgarian apartments maybe?

I would consider the risk of taking on borrowings or investing now, after the collapse in house prices as much less than before.

I believe more people will be choosing the rental option rather than purchasing (which is bad news for me but so be it). Therefore it is my opinion that that, at the current time is perhaps not a bad idea at all. If the government were to go on a massive social housing build program my view would perhaps change. They seem to be happy to leave this to the private individual or company to do so. As you say they perhaps would have difficulty funding it.

I know 78% of Housing Executive tenants receive Housing Benefit and 76% of those receive the full benefit (I assume the other 22% don't receive any). I don't have any figures for the percentage of those in the private rented sector who receive housing benefit and what percentage of them get the full amount.

There is a reported 34,000 people on the waiting list, 19,000 said to be in urgent need. Even if half that were true it is quite a backlog and would tend to support my opinion that there is demand for the private rented sector going forward.

I know institutional investors are very seriously looking at Northern Ireland to buy into some of the HE stock and commence building some of their own. Once they get a view of the red-tape in this place they may think differently.

Private venture finance, the bonds market, and a number of large UK banks have been and are keen to supply funding to the local Housing Associations. These investments are long term, for 30 years in some cases. As far as I am aware there is no state backed guarantees. They are basing repayment on this from the one source of income the Housing Associations have-rents. Perhaps 70% of that is housing benefit. The amount inplace, and coming in is in the £100's of millions.

I am no expert on these matters but I assume, that at this scale, they should be.

Perhaps they have completely missed your nuggets of financial wisdom.

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I would consider the risk of taking on borrowings or investing now, after the collapse in house prices as much less than before.

Let's get one thing straight, BTL (borrow to let) is not an investment, it is a business.

You really think that now is a better time to "invest" in BTL compared to during the biggest housing bubble the world has ever seen? Funny that. Will you be my FA?

I believe more people will be choosing the rental option rather than purchasing (which is bad news for me but so be it). Therefore it is my opinion that that, at the current time is perhaps not a bad idea at all. If the government were to go on a massive social housing build program my view would perhaps change. They seem to be happy to leave this to the private individual or company to do so. As you say they perhaps would have difficulty funding it.

Where do you think the money is going to come from? Is Britian going to borrow it? Print it? Then give it over to use ad infinitum?

I know 78% of Housing Executive tenants receive Housing Benefit and 76% of those receive the full benefit (I assume the other 22% don't receive any). I don't have any figures for the percentage of those in the private rented sector who receive housing benefit and what percentage of them get the full amount.

There is a reported 34,000 people on the waiting list, 19,000 said to be in urgent need. Even if half that were true it is quite a backlog and would tend to support my opinion that there is demand for the private rented sector going forward.

There are 115,000 private tenants in N.I. Seventy thousand receive housing benefit.

HB cost £615 million a year.

Private tenants cost £365 million.

NIHE get £250 million

So £434 per calendar months per private tenant.

Waiting list mean nothing. They are pointless.

I'll say it again maybe you'll listen this time, there isn't one single individual in N.I. who does not have access to housing.

know institutional investors are very seriously looking at Northern Ireland to buy into some of the HE stock and commence building some of their own. Once they get a view of the red-tape in this place they may think differently.

A bird in the hand...

Private venture finance, the bonds market, and a number of large UK banks have been and are keen to supply funding to the local Housing Associations. These investments are long term, for 30 years in some cases. As far as I am aware there is no state backed guarantees. They are basing repayment on this from the one source of income the Housing Associations have-rents. Perhaps 70% of that is housing benefit. The amount inplace, and coming in is in the £100's of millions.

Wouldn't be like the banks to get things wrong now would it? Remind me of the residential impairment charges from our local banks?

What was the figure spotlight mentioned?

Nice to see FLS money is going somewhere.

I am no expert on these matters

Clearly

Perhaps they have completely missed your nuggets of financial wisdom

Shortsighted banks, they don't care about tomorrow, they don't take a longterm view. If they did, we wouldn't be here.

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Let's get one thing straight, BTL (borrow to let) is not an investment, it is a business.

There are 115,000 private tenants in N.I. Seventy thousand receive housing benefit.

HB cost £615 million a year.

Private tenants cost £365 million.

NIHE get £250 million

So £434 per calendar months per private tenant.

Waiting list mean nothing. They are pointless.

I'll say it again maybe you'll listen this time, there isn't one single individual in N.I. who does not have access to housing.

A bird in the hand...

Wouldn't be like the banks to get things wrong now would it? Remind me of the residential impairment charges from our local banks?

What was the figure spotlight mentioned?

Nice to see FLS money is going somewhere.

Shortsighted banks, they don't care about tomorrow, they don't take a longterm view. If they did, we wouldn't be here.

I now understand there are approximately 42,000 households in Northern Ireland’s private rented sector receive housing benefit calculated under local housing allowance arrangements.

"

I posted before on taxation on income from rented houses saying it would be taxed like any other "business" and was attacked for referring to it as a business.

As a state we have taken on the burden to house people. We can argue the rights and wrongs of that (and I personally believe we went too far). But we are where we are.

I cant see the government reversing that. They are not building the social houses they need and have heavily leaned on the private sector to take up the tenants. I don't see that changing. I believe that demand will remain and is likely to increase. The so-called bedroom tax will help to distribute people better into houses they need and make some better use of the housing stock but it will not reverse what is happening.

I don't believe the 35,000 on the waiting list all need a house. But I don't believe it is zero no matter how many times you say it. There are plenty of organisations out there who are closer to the facts than either of us that clearly state differently.

We all know the banks squandered money in the past. They don't have as much now and are extremely careful where they invest it. They and the institutional investor are looking at the social rental sector.

Edited by BelfastVI

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Look at the NIHE housing plan for 2012-2015. There are 115, 000 private rented houses and 70,000 claim housing benefit, with an annual expenditure of 365 million. If you are betting that this government will continue to be given a 10 billion pound bail out for the next 25 years from a government with a current account deficit of 120 billion and a debt approaching 4 trillion, you are a bigger gambler than Kerry Packer.

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Oh and I'm well aware of the plans to try and leverage up the NIHE stock. I've no doubt its the principle reason for dividing the monstrosity up and work around the statutory requirements however our assembly seem to be better at organising foreign jaunts than real strategic thinking and as I say two parties only concerned with short termism will have trouble making it appeal to either.

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Oh and I'm well aware of the plans to try and leverage up the NIHE stock. I've no doubt its the principle reason for dividing the monstrosity up and work around the statutory requirements however our assembly seem to be better at organising foreign jaunts than real strategic thinking and as I say two parties only concerned with short termism will have trouble making it appeal to either.

And what would you suggest they do with the Housing Executive stock?

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Look at the NIHE housing plan for 2012-2015. There are 115, 000 private rented houses and 70,000 claim housing benefit, with an annual expenditure of 365 million. If you are betting that this government will continue to be given a 10 billion pound bail out for the next 25 years from a government with a current account deficit of 120 billion and a debt approaching 4 trillion, you are a bigger gambler than Kerry Packer.

I took my figures from the Northern Ireland Housing Statistics 2011-12. not the first time official figures differ.

I am glad you have been reading the NIHE Plan as there most recent one points out the housing need stating;

"It is considered appropriate to have an annual target of a minimum of 2,000 new social dwellings for the next five year period to partially address the backlog that has built up"

and

"However housing need is not being met. Our waiting list amounts to around 34,700 people/households at May 2012 of whom around 20,000 are considered to be in housing stress including those people who are statutorily homeless (around 9,000 at May 2012)."

"The most recent household projections indicate the overall number of households is set to grow between 2008 and 2023 by 122,000 (18%), with average household size continuing to fall from 2.53 to 2.36. By 2023 approximately one third (34%) of all households will be single person households compared with 30 per cent in 2008)."

"The most recent estimates of housing need based on the Net Stock Model and analysis of the waiting list for social housing indicate the need for a minimum annual programme of 2,000 additional social dwellings, although resources will only be available for a significantly lower number."

" there were more than 125,000 occupied dwellings in Northern Ireland’s private rented sector"

"in 2010/11 approximately 60,000 private tenants on Housing Benefit"

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So you've gone from 42,000 households to "approximately 60,000". That's £100,000,000 of funding per year. No worries though, we'll just pick it from the money tree.

I'll look at the figures in detail next week. I don't even know where to start with NIHE predictions. I think I pointed out to you on other threads how their population predictions have been consistently wrong.l not to mention their obvious VI.

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I dont have any figures. The figure of 42,00 to 60,000 are the movement on two different government reports.

There are plenty of worries as I have been pointing out. These figures are going to grow even more as the demographics change.

The HE dont build houses. What is their obvious VI. Have other 'branches' of government got the same VI's.

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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