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Unemployment Up

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UK unemployment has risen to 2.52 million, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.

ONS figures showed 15,000 more people were unemployed in the three months to the end of March, compared with the previous three months.

The unemployment rate now stands at 7.8%.

An ONS spokesman told the BBC the figures suggest the recent period of falling unemployment "seems to have come to an end".

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An ONS spokesman told the BBC the figures suggest the recent period of falling unemployment "seems to have come to an end".

Serious insight here. Amazing depth of analysis.

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To me this was the most striking aspect of today's employment release:

"Between January to March 2012 and January to March 2013 total pay rose

by 0.4% (the lowest growth rate since March to May 2009) and regular pay

rose by 0.8% (the lowest growth rate since comparable records began in 2001)."

Also, when you split that 0.4% number, private sector pay shows no growth whatsoever whereas public sector pay is up 1.4%.

Real earnings are back to early 2001 levels (and this is a six-month average. We're back to July 2000 if we take the latest month number).

RealEarnings0312.gif

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To me this was the most striking aspect of today's employment release:

"Between January to March 2012 and January to March 2013 total pay rose

by 0.4% (the lowest growth rate since March to May 2009) and regular pay

rose by 0.8% (the lowest growth rate since comparable records began in 2001)."

Also, when you split that 0.4% number, private sector pay shows no growth whatsoever whereas public sector pay is up 1.4%.

Real earnings are back to early 2001 levels (and this is a six-month average. We're back to July 2000 if we take the latest month number).

RealEarnings0312.gif

Crappy wages for crappy jobs.

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To me this was the most striking aspect of today's employment release:

"Between January to March 2012 and January to March 2013 total pay rose

by 0.4% (the lowest growth rate since March to May 2009) and regular pay

rose by 0.8% (the lowest growth rate since comparable records began in 2001)."

Also, when you split that 0.4% number, private sector pay shows no growth whatsoever whereas public sector pay is up 1.4%.

Real earnings are back to early 2001 levels (and this is a six-month average. We're back to July 2000 if we take the latest month number).

RealEarnings0312.gif

The collapse in earning power is gaining momentum. Cannot see the UK economy picking up until that turns positive, let alone flatlines.

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The collapse in earning power is gaining momentum. Cannot see the UK economy picking up until that turns positive, let alone flatlines.

Falling earning power for the proles and what little they have being sucked into keeping a roof over their heads.

No picking up of the economy until that stops.

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To me this was the most striking aspect of today's employment release:

"Between January to March 2012 and January to March 2013 total pay rose

by 0.4% (the lowest growth rate since March to May 2009) and regular pay

rose by 0.8% (the lowest growth rate since comparable records began in 2001)."

Also, when you split that 0.4% number, private sector pay shows no growth whatsoever whereas public sector pay is up 1.4%.

Real earnings are back to early 2001 levels (and this is a six-month average. We're back to July 2000 if we take the latest month number).

RealEarnings0312.gif

saw Ed Conway's tweet about this and thought of you.

Expect the Real House Prices and Prices adjusted for wages charts to be diverging further.

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Hmm, I wonder why wages haven't increased in 12 years?

The number of non-UK-born people in employment rose 225,000 to 4.26m on a year ago, while the number of UK-born people in work rose 192,000 to 25.33m.

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To me this was the most striking aspect of today's employment release:

"Between January to March 2012 and January to March 2013 total pay rose

by 0.4% (the lowest growth rate since March to May 2009) and regular pay

rose by 0.8% (the lowest growth rate since comparable records began in 2001)."

Also, when you split that 0.4% number, private sector pay shows no growth whatsoever whereas public sector pay is up 1.4%.

Real earnings are back to early 2001 levels (and this is a six-month average. We're back to July 2000 if we take the latest month number).

RealEarnings0312.gif

Assuming that the 1.4% is solely private sector..Can i ask, is that 1.4% above RPI, or just a 1.4% rise, so a negative number assuming RPI is higher than 1.4%..

Also, is that 1.4% for a full twelve months, so for example Jan 12 to Jan 13 or March 12 to March 13..

I never understand these moving averages, Thanks Freetrader...

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Assuming that the 1.4% is solely private sector..Can i ask, is that 1.4% above RPI, or just a 1.4% rise, so a negative number assuming RPI is higher than 1.4%..

Also, is that 1.4% for a full twelve months, so for example Jan 12 to Jan 13 or March 12 to March 13..

I never understand these moving averages, Thanks Freetrader...

Here's a snapshot of the ONS Average Weekly Earnings spreadsheet:

AWE0312.gif

This dataset is noisy due to the timing of bonuses and so for the headline wage numbers the ONS takes the average of the last three months and compares it with the same three months the previous year.

As you can see, on a straight month-on-month comparison, private sector wages are down on last year.

These spreadsheet figures are nominal – there's no adjustment for inflation. For the inflation-adjusted chart I posted above I use a 6-month moving average to smooth the data. Here's what it looks like unsmoothed:

RealEarnings0312Unsmoothed.gif

The ONS AWE series starts in January 2000, and in real terms we've now dipped below the very first number in that series.

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Here's a snapshot of the ONS Average Weekly Earnings spreadsheet:

AWE0312.gif

This dataset is noisy due to the timing of bonuses and so for the headline wage numbers the ONS takes the average of the last three months and compares it with the same three months the previous year.

As you can see, on a straight month-on-month comparison, private sector wages are down on last year.

These spreadsheet figures are nominal – there's no adjustment for inflation. For the inflation-adjusted chart I posted above I use a 6-month moving average to smooth the data. Here's what it looks like unsmoothed:

RealEarnings0312Unsmoothed.gif

The ONS AWE series starts in January 2000, and in real terms we've now dipped below the very first number in that series.

Thanks, as always F.T.. The most worrysome aspect of the decline in real earnings is the resilience of the trend since the peak in late 2009 (on your 6 month av figs), circa 2.3% per annum decline.

It's against this trend that the motivations for suppressing interest rates on mortgage debt becomes ever clearer. Dropping interest rates by 1% on £100k debt repaid over 25 years repayment saves about £15/week (very roughly) so the cracks evidence by wage decline can be papered over for a while, if I've drawn the correct conclusion.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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Here's a snapshot of the ONS Average Weekly Earnings spreadsheet:

AWE0312.gif

This dataset is noisy due to the timing of bonuses and so for the headline wage numbers the ONS takes the average of the last three months and compares it with the same three months the previous year.

As you can see, on a straight month-on-month comparison, private sector wages are down on last year.

These spreadsheet figures are nominal – there's no adjustment for inflation. For the inflation-adjusted chart I posted above I use a 6-month moving average to smooth the data. Here's what it looks like unsmoothed:

RealEarnings0312Unsmoothed.gif

The ONS AWE series starts in January 2000, and in real terms we've now dipped below the very first number in that series.

Thankyou very much FT...

It only highlights one thing which we have all known for quite sometime, the drive, to anchor wage settlements is as plain as egg on your face. This allows ZIRP, FFLS, QE et al.....Wage settlements are anchored, so inflation is anchored, so savings rates, lending rates will remain at all time low's until wage settlements start to creep north? My guess is this will be a long drawn out affair, decades maybe..Because if we were all achieving positive wage increments, this money would be chasing even higher costs oif services and goods...Rates would then have to rise to hoover up the excess or we would see maybe another Weimer?

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Here's a snapshot of the ONS Average Weekly Earnings spreadsheet:

AWE0312.gif

This dataset is noisy due to the timing of bonuses and so for the headline wage numbers the ONS takes the average of the last three months and compares it with the same three months the previous year.

As you can see, on a straight month-on-month comparison, private sector wages are down on last year.

These spreadsheet figures are nominal – there's no adjustment for inflation. For the inflation-adjusted chart I posted above I use a 6-month moving average to smooth the data. Here's what it looks like unsmoothed:

RealEarnings0312Unsmoothed.gif

The ONS AWE series starts in January 2000, and in real terms we've now dipped below the very first number in that series.

Glad that housing, commercial rent and other living costs are deflating in line with wages... oh hang on.

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Falling earning power for the proles and what little they have being sucked into keeping a roof over their heads.

No picking up of the economy until that stops.

The elite want lower taxes, lower wages (for proles) and lower benefits.

They also want higher consumer spending, so that their investments give better returns.

They also want their heads not to be crudely hacked off and set on spikes.

Not all of these wants are mutually compatible.

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anyone know the figures for people working with top up benefits/ tax credits?

I have looked for the same but never found owt ,but the cost of working tax credits is about double the combined cost of housing benefit /jsa/ incapacity benefit so from that I would guess a hell of a lot of jobs are subsidised

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The elite want lower taxes, lower wages (for proles) and lower benefits.

They also want higher consumer spending, so that their investments give better returns.

They also want their heads not to be crudely hacked off and set on spikes.

Not all of these wants are mutually compatible.

:lol:

Be fair- they want lower wages in order to increase demand. There are a few wrinkles to be ironed out with this idea of course- the main snag being that demand = wages- so as they whittle away at the former the latter shows a curious tendency to shrink.

Edited by wonderpup

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To me this was the most striking aspect of today's employment release:

"Between January to March 2012 and January to March 2013 total pay rose

by 0.4% (the lowest growth rate since March to May 2009) and regular pay

rose by 0.8% (the lowest growth rate since comparable records began in 2001)."

Also, when you split that 0.4% number, private sector pay shows no growth whatsoever whereas public sector pay is up 1.4%.

Real earnings are back to early 2001 levels (and this is a six-month average. We're back to July 2000 if we take the latest month number).

RealEarnings0312.gif

The thing is the UK has become significantly more uneven in terms of wage distribution since 2001. So for your typical prole the situation is significantly worse than that graph suggests.

For example for the bottom 50% or so they saw zero real terms wage growth throughout the early-middle 2000's. Now add in the real terms wage falls since then onto this group......

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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