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TwoWolves

Something Is Happening

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I've been monitoring an area I'd like to live in for the last three years. It covers a radius of about one mile outside of a Hampshire town.

In this time there has been hardly anything for sale, maybe two houses - one sold quite quickly and the other was taken off the market within two months.

In the last eight weeks eight properties have gone on the market and are staying there. One went STC and then back on after two weeks while the others just sit there.

I'd describe all the properties as 30% over-valued in this market, and that's not even an HPC pessimist view on the market price I mean really over-priced. That is except the one that was listed today - which is spot-on I'd say (undercutting smaller houses at 400K more!).

Something is happening, but I don't know what exactly.

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Last time I got excited by something like that on RM, it turned out to be an EA typo.

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Yep, I think something is happening too, but like you I don't know exactly what.

Almost 50% of what I'm seeing coming onto the market is chain free, and all of it is overpriced (again even allowing for the fact that I'm a rabid HPCer). I also pissed off an estate agent yesterday when I made some comment to the effect that I'm not in a rush to buy as "whatever you're trying to pass off as a spring bounce" will be over soon, putting me in a stronger position. She went from being very nice to being very blunt.

Looks like the shiny veneer might be cracking :)

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Some rich people are struggling, anecdotally of course. Limping along like a zombie thanks to these low rates.

Can I guess where? Chilworth?

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I'm very much inclined to agree that 'something' is happening.

London rentals have fallen quite significantly in prime and edge-of-prime areas - witness a c.15% reduction in asking rents for one and two beds in Shoreditch, with much more stock sitting on the market for longer, and falling rents across the 'classic' prime areas like Chelsea. Outside of renting, there are huge discounts on prime London sales - millions being lopped off asking prices, and the cuts are gathering pace.

It's been said a million times before, but I really do believe we are at a turning point with regard to London property - and it will start with a fall in prices in prime areas before radiating out.

Edited by Dr_Mibbles

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Yep, I think something is happening too, but like you I don't know exactly what.

Almost 50% of what I'm seeing coming onto the market is chain free, and all of it is overpriced (again even allowing for the fact that I'm a rabid HPCer). I also pissed off an estate agent yesterday when I made some comment to the effect that I'm not in a rush to buy as "whatever you're trying to pass off as a spring bounce" will be over soon, putting me in a stronger position. She went from being very nice to being very blunt.

Looks like the shiny veneer might be cracking :)

How many of the 50% look like repos ? could this be the beginning of the banks starting to offload

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This thread is very timely, because I'm seeing something similar in my part of London.

Insanely priced properties (based on Land Registry comparisons) are about 20-30% overpriced, and are not shifting.

I have a similar feeling about the local market, ie that no-one is buying, unless places look genuinely cheap relative to rental prices.

However, I've not been looking that long. This could be perfectly normal.

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I'm monitoring certain areas around Southampton and asking prices actually seem to be going up, although selling prices have been stagnant since 2007. There have been more chain free properties coming onto the market recently, but every one I've seen so far has been inherited.

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My folks live in a very sought after village in Yorkshires 'Golden Triangle' and i have been struck recently by how many houses

up for sale are now hanging around, they are still on for joke amounts of money, but that never mattered before, as someone always

came along soon enough to 'snap it up'.....not any more

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The timing suggests a reaction to help to buy, or whatever the latest wheeze is. All those 'waiting for the market to recover' perhaps think now is the time, perhaps opinions differ as to the value, some have the fantasy still in mind others are more realistic.

But what's interesting is that an outside event such as osbournes cunning plan to make everything worse can trigger a stampede to market from all those who have wanted to sell for the last few years but have been holding off. So we have a buildup over 3+ years waiting to pop instead of a more usual drip feed of properties to the market.

So there's a spike in supply. Is there an appetite to borrow with an ability to lend to meet that supply? I don't think so. It's an interesting situation to watch. From a distance.

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i've had exactly the same thought over the past few days... not sure what's going on as it's counter to the bullsh1t media coverage at the moment

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Noticeable jump in volumes of properties being reduced by between 5-10% today.

Property bee shows that more than two thirds of new properties added today are in fact reductions. It is striking that only 1 reduction is a cynical 2% cut. A sprinkling of sales falling through and about 1 in 4 is a genuine new property!

In Coventry btw!

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Ballad of A Thick Woman (aka Keeping Up With The Joneses)

You walk into the bank

With your offer on a home

They ask for your deposit

And you say, “I've got an equity loan!"

You try so hard

But you don’t understand

Just what you’ll do

When rates have grown

Because something is happening here

But you don’t know what it is

Do you, Mrs Jones

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Anything half decent up to about 200K is being snapped up but once you go above 250K asking price - which my local EAs seem to have ramped, IMPO, much of Swansea West, very little is selling. Stuff that went SSTC in January/February is now gradually coming back on the market.

More and more divorcing couples.

I am also hearing more and more stories of people who paid silly money between 2005 and 2009, when moving from Home Counties to Swansea, now completely fecked because they are waking up to the fact that very few of the locals can afford what they paid.

Example 1:

Home Counties couple who paid 399K in an area where houses used to sell for 230K to 250K on average, and who hence allowed the EAs to ramp up virtually everything else to circa 400K, cannot find a buyer.

Example 2:

Couple from Cambridge, who moved to Swansea, who paid 390 for a new build in Swansea West and wanted to put it on for over 400K - sane EA told them they would be lucky to get 300K now and that it was not worth his time marketing it above that.

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Last time I got excited by something like that on RM, it turned out to be an EA typo.

Last time I got excited by something like that I put in an offer only to have it ignored and find the house was soon bought by a relation of the EA.

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Here's an example from literally just now (property bee required):

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37403659.html

On market in Jan, under offer, offer dropped and price up by 10%. Price looks very optimistic for a small two bed based on previous sale prices.

This is fairly typical.

Another one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-24450276.html

on the market since October last year, at 30% more than anything has ever sold on that street!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^760454&searchLocation=SE24+0AD&referrer=PROPERTYDETAILS

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How many of the 50% look like repos ? could this be the beginning of the banks starting to offload

Not many - we actually viewed a repo this evening, and it's the first one that I've seen any sign of in months.

The ones we are seeing are either inherited or the owners have bought elsewhere and are trying to sell, presumably because rents have passed through the stratosphere and are now in la-la land. I've said on a couple of threads recently, this really has the feel of 2007/2008 again to me - prices defying gravity but nobody able to pay them. And the EAs are noticing. Two (to be fair, from the same agency) told me last week that the offers are coming in below asking price, and the vendors need to be flexible. Not as flexible as I want them to be as yet though :D

I will of course be proven wrong as usual, but I'm sensing something in the air, for sure.

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I know a few people trying to sell nice 2 bed flats right now in Edinburgh.

Nowt. Barely any interest at all.

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The more the pent up supply comes on to the market the better. These sellers ought to be pretty desperate by now to actually sell, and so the more they are in competition with their neighbours, the lower prices will end up. This could be the dam finally bursting! :)

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Having scanned RM for properties local to me only confirms my suspicions... got through 21 before getting bored (hardly the buoyant market the MSM would have you believe)

1. Been on and off the market since Nov 2010, paid £500k in 2006, now on for £700k

2. On for at least 12 months – dropped £40k then £45k

3. On 8 weeks

4. On since oct 2012 – dropped £50k two months ago

5. On for 9 weeks

6. Two matching houses, 5k apart one on for a month, once since Oct 2012

7. Within a couple of weeks

8. On at £450k, second time trying to sell in recent years – paid £440k in 2008

9. On at £450k, dropped from £430k, second time trying to sell after adding a conservatory to increase living space

10. 2 bed retirement property just on

11. Refurb in big plot – rest of plot been built on - Been on and off market since Oct 2010

12. Another one just on

13. On for £355k, bought for £325k in 2006 only on for a month

14. Been on for 8 weeks

15. Been on for 2 weeks

16. Been on since Jan 2013, on at £325k, paid £295 in 2006

17. On since Nov 2012

18. On since Jan 2013

19. On since Oct 2012, reduced by £30k over time

20. On since Oct 2010 at £10k more than paid for it in 2007

21. On since April 2012

I know one of these has bought elsewhere - old/health condition meant they had to - bought independently but now cannot sell old house

Another one is around retirement age - owns 3 properties - trying to pay down debt and get out of BTL but prices of all of them are hugely unrealistic

Mainly ex-btl properties, deceased estates and people overly extended by the looks of things...

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Rents are definitely falling in London. Seems to be more available too.

Properties available to buy are rising, but still well below peak.

Asking prices where I'm looking have gone crazy over the last year.

RM Median 2+ bed flat:

SW17 - £350k (up from £290k in 2007)

SW12 - £490k (up from £395k in 2007)

Madness.

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I've been struck by the increase in overpriced stuff coming on in my area (Chester) in the past few weeks. The maximum people seem able to regularly pay is about £200k, and decent houses around this price seem to attract offers even if they are poor value. The rest hangs around. There are plenty of properties on for much more than £200k but very few buyers from my limited experience.

I'm not sure much has changed. Regional indices show a consistent drop (Nationwide) or a Q1 rise (Halifax).

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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