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The Knimbies who say No

C M L Mar 2013 Figs

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http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3524

The commentary cites a 20% month-on-month rise in FTB numbers, which means that last month's figure (Feb) has therefore been revised down from the released 16,400 figure to around 15,900 which is coincidently the same as Jan 2013 and therefore makes a mockery of the spin on last months commentary. Let's remind ourselves:

The number of first-time buyers increased by 3% in February, marking the best start to a year since 2008, according to new data released today by the Council of Mortgage Lenders....

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3487

This time last year marked the end of the stamp duty holiday so perhaps y-o-y- comparisons are not so straightforward enlightening, but have a look at the y-o-y growth rates released today for overall approval numbers (which include the FTB numbers above), approval values, remortgage numbers and remortgage values:

-----------------appr# ---appr£-----remort#--remor£

March 2013 42,000 £6,200M 23,300 £3,100M

March 2012 -19.2% -17.3% -18.5% -13.9%

Dare I remind anyone, although there is no stamp duty holiday deadline this month, we have the FLS instead.

Plenty more at the link at the top.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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Same old, same old.

The people who prepare the statistics get to write the headlines and can rely upon half-wit journalists (good afternooon Ian Cowie) to repeat the spin pretty much verbatum.

No matter how bad the statistics are there will always be something that can be spun as a positve headline and if not it's a simple matter to bury the press release then use that month as a comparative next year.

It's been the same practice for the last 10 years at least and it's a significant part of the underlying cause of the financial crisis.

Edit: Incidentally Mr Cowie, if you are reading, there are 28 days in February and 31 in March. That's a 10.7% increase straight off.

Edited by Goat

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This time last year marked the end of the stamp duty holiday so perhaps y-o-y- comparisons are not so straightforward enlightening.........

Looking carefully this is a clever bit of spin.

Table 2 shows the results for homemovers, which is a 17.3% fall in numbers. Since this category is not going to be affected by the stamp duty holiday we can conclude that the actual effect of this on FTB's was probably less than 5% of the 20% fall.

Now maybe this is explained by factors such as Easter falling in March this year but it wouldn't take a genius to re-write this press release as "CML figures spark mortgage famine fear".

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To give it a bit of perspective, number of house purchase loans:

March 2009 (when the market had pretty much ground to a halt) - 31,000

March 2010 - 45,000

March 2011 - 40,900

March 2012 (end of stamp duty holiday) - 51,200

March 2013 (FLS) - 42,000*

*Assuming no cheeky downwards revisions

FLS a resounding success it seems :lol:

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Neal Hudson, analyst at Savills, tweeted FTBs at 60% of 2007 levels and 50% of 90s levels.

A little fact from a Jeremy Warner blog: The UK is up to its neck in debt, but here's the thing: we just don't care

Fewer than two out of every five households had any outstanding debt on their main property at all, while half of those with debt owed less £75,000

I'm not entirely sure what to make of it.

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A little fact from a Jeremy Warner blog: The UK is up to its neck in debt, but here's the thing: we just don't care

Fewer than two out of every five households had any outstanding debt on their main property at all, while half of those with debt owed less £75,000

I'm not entirely sure what to make of it.

Not surprising if you are familiar with the Credit Action debt stats. Approx half of UK houses owned outright and the average mortgage on the others 'seems' small. The number of households seriously underwater is less than they would have us believe. They need purging.

Edited by SeeYouNextTuesday

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Edit: Incidentally Mr Cowie, if you are reading, there are 28 days in February and 31 in March. That's a 10.7% increase straight off.

No school half term in march compared to Febuary either.

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All good points raised above.

FLS is not really doing much to boost lending, but we all suspected that anyway. The CML commentary is as Goat says unashamedly optimistic without a great deal of justification. The previous month's spin was undone completely this month.

There is a consistently small pool of borrowed funds buying into the housing market at present, we see that with the CML and BBA figures.

Next up, "Help to Buy"...

Madness.

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Not surprising if you are familiar with the Credit Actio debt stats. Approx half of UK houses owned outright and the average mortgage on the others 'seems' small. The number of households seriously underwater is less than they would have us believe. They need purging.

Indeedy. Less than a million households in the deep stuff. Way less than those being forced to be debt farmed by Landlords.

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I get the feeling that there is huge' pent up supply' of over leveraged property speculators out there who will do or say just about anything to avoid a price correction- many of them being in the Government or related to them.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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