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Darkman

Where Do You See Uk House Prices In 5 Years?

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I intentionally put this post in OT.

I've been abroad since September 2012, and it's no surprise that I've been able to buy outright.

You see, in a lot of other countries property is priced the way it should be.... ok, I'll drop the sarcasm. But even now I still feel anger over UK prices tbh.

Anyway, I've enjoyed being out of the loop. I used to check prices almost daily it seemed. Talk about an unhealthy fixation. And what I found always created a grey cloud. But recently I had a nose round to see how things are going in the UK. I expected stagnation, with a little over or under.

As far as I could see, prices have fecking risen.

I mean, are you kidding me? :lol: :angry:

How far higher can prices realistically go....is it possible there's virtually no limit? Are we returning to Victorian times with a huge divide between those who own and those who don't? I'm beginning to wonder, and I just don't understand it.

So, call it. In 4-5 years time, where will we be? Is there a monumental crash on the way, or is the UK truly doomed to be a horribly divided country?

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I intentionally put this post in OT.

I've been abroad since September 2012, and it's no surprise that I've been able to buy outright.

You see, in a lot of other countries property is priced the way it should be.... ok, I'll drop the sarcasm. But even now I still feel anger over UK prices tbh.

Anyway, I've enjoyed being out of the loop. I used to check prices almost daily it seemed. Talk about an unhealthy fixation. And what I found always created a grey cloud. But recently I had a nose round to see how things are going in the UK. I expected stagnation, with a little over or under.

As far as I could see, prices have fecking risen.

I mean, are you kidding me? :lol: :angry:

How far higher can prices realistically go....is it possible there's virtually no limit? Are we returning to Victorian times with a huge divide between those who own and those who don't? I'm beginning to wonder, and I just don't understand it.

So, call it. In 4-5 years time, where will we be? Is there a monumental crash on the way, or is the UK truly doomed to be a horribly divided country?

A combination of a shortfall of perhaps 500,000-1,000,000 houses and insanely easy credit..

No other major country has anything like that mad combination.

Edit: 5 years.. can't see IRs going up much. Can't see many houses getting built either. Will start making plans for the kids to stay at our current house till they are 35..

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Is there a monumental crash on the way, or is the UK truly doomed to be a horribly divided country?

Perhaps just a return to the long term mean, in that society is based upon some modern interpretation of feudalism?

I don't know. But until bankers and politicians are held responsible for their incessant pilfering from the public purse, corruption in the system will continue to prevent a return to real price discovery in all markets, but more specifically property here in the UK.

Two massive points that mess with the society as idealised in modern media; demographics and energy. Both are very real and are going to destroy the nations wealth irreparably.

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My gut feel is that they will be about the same in nominal terms, +/- about 2-3% pa, but will have dropped another 15% in real terms. I just think they can keep these plates spinning longer than any of us ever imagined. Long term though, 40-50% is easily possible, and actually probable in my opinion - long term being 10-20 years, and it will come with the destruction of just about every aspect of our current economy.

For anyone who can find work or fund a lifestyle abroad, I say go for it and good luck. When this mess eventually shakes itself out, there will be winners and losers. None of us know who those will be at this stage, but even for the winners, the UK will be an unpleasant, unhappy place to live.

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Perhaps just a return to the long term mean, in that society is based upon some modern interpretation of feudalism?

Feudalism was a set of legal and military customs in medieval Europe that flourished between the 9th and 15th centuries

Wiki

Feudalism was particular to one period in European history and is not how things have always been and always will be.

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Wiki

Feudalism was particular to one period in European history and is not how things have always been and always will be.

True.. but it's more a case that for much of human history, a small caste of people have held essentially all political/military and economic power, with untrammeled rights to do what they like with the vast majority of peasants/serfs/slaves.

It's been rare indeed for things like the rule of law (where the law actually applied to everyone), private property rights, non-nobles being allowed to accumulate wealth, commoners being allowed political opinions, advancement based on ability, free inquiry, etc to exist for any length of time. Of course, when they do exist you find that the countries that practice them leap ahead of their neighbors economically and militarily.

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I'm reckoning back to the August 2007 peak of 200K on the Halifax measure. That would actually mean 11 years of flat-linng (about a year longer than the trough of 1989-1999 (bottoming in 1995 and regaining the former highs four years later)).

Incidentally my original forecast when I joined HPC in 2006 was for a correction of -37.5% real. I was expecting a similar pattern to 1989-1999 with inflation doing most of the erosion. Looks like we may only get -35% real now, because I think prices will shadow RPI at least from heronin as we climb out of the trough. Indeed on the Halifax measure they are now +3.6% over the last 12 months. (not their 3 months moving average but actually comparing April 13/April12)

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You're asking the wrong question. The UK economy is a mortgage Ponzi. If they can keep the debt from blowing up house prices will be maintained at bubble levels forever.

How long can they keep adding £100+bn/yr to the national debt without it blowing up? The UK is like a high-speed version of Japan. We don't have another twenty years, the rate of debt accumulation is much too high for that. And then, if the Japanese default the stresses on the international financial system will probably take the UK down too.

In summary: watch Japan. Their fate is our fate.

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You're asking the wrong question. The UK economy is a mortgage Ponzi. If they can keep the debt from blowing up house prices will be maintained at bubble levels forever.

How long can they keep adding £100+bn/yr to the national debt without it blowing up? The UK is like a high-speed version of Japan. We don't have another twenty years, the rate of debt accumulation is much too high for that. And then, if the Japanese default the stresses on the international financial system will probably take the UK down too.

In summary: watch Japan. Their fate is our fate.

I think doomsday may be a few years off yet. I agree the structural defict is unsustainable and the politicians have their hands tied by the entitlement culture and are doing nothing about it. However, plenty of debt fuelled cash deposits looking for a home, just as in Japan. NSI would only have to launch an index linked certificate and I for one would be scrambling to get in there.

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-30% to -40% nominal, and if it isn't, I'll just wait until it is.

I think we would have to be looking at serious wealth destruction and haircuts on our cash deposits to see prices at that level ie. around 107K on the Halifax measure.

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Guest eight

I think we would have to be looking at serious wealth destruction and haircuts on our cash deposits to see prices at that level ie. around 107K on the Halifax measure.

I get your point, but I can't see anything in the fundamentals to justify even those levels, never mind current ones.

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I think we would have to be looking at serious wealth destruction and haircuts on our cash deposits to see prices at that level ie. around 107K on the Halifax measure.

I don't. We have a house price bubble, as did Japan and Japanese prices fell 80% and stayed there for a decade. Doubtless the Japanese buyers who bought at the peak thought the same as you ;).

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I get your point, but I can't see anything in the fundamentals to justify even those levels, never mind current ones.

What fundamentals? International financiers are just making it up as they go along, there are no fundamentals. This is what I missed when I first joined this site with the same opinion as your own, and what many on here still miss - we HAVE entered a new paradigm for a whole variety of reasons.

30% to -40% nominal, and if it isn't, I'll just wait until it is.

Here's the catch 22 - If an economic situation arises whereby house prices fall 30-40% nominal in the UK then the last thing on your mind will be buying a house, because it will mean that we have complete and utter unadulterated carnage. We are way beyond the point of no return with respect to nominal prices. All we will have from now on is a long, slow, grinding, stagflation where house prices maintain current nominals, roughly, but deflate relative to the rest of the economy and wages rise, but only slowly. Result is everyone gets generally poorer but houses become relatively cheaper over the next 10-30 years.

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Here's the catch 22 - If an economic situation arises whereby house prices fall 30-40% nominal in the UK then the last thing on your mind will be buying a house, because it will mean that we have complete and utter unadulterated carnage. We are way beyond the point of no return with respect to nominal prices. All we will have from now on is a long, slow, grinding, stagflation where house prices maintain current nominals, roughly, but deflate relative to the rest of the economy and wages rise, but only slowly. Result is everyone gets generally poorer but houses become relatively cheaper over the next 10-30 years.

House prices up 30 or 40% = fine and dandy and to be expected.

House prices down 30 or 40% = "complete and utter unadulterated carnage".

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

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Wiki

Feudalism was particular to one period in European history and is not how things have always been and always will be.

It only took our pan-European governments financial backers perhaps a generation to pretty much eradicate the human rights originating from the Magna Carta, which was draughted in feudal times.

It took even less time for our UK government to all but destroy unionised labour and collective bargaining rights bourne of the industrial revolution.

There are many definitions of feudalism, but I was referring to the more generalised form with landowners and serfdom.

What people are calling progress is in my mind an engineered return to history; except this time with more insidious control by the state.

This isn't tin foil hat stuff. It's right there in your face every day. We accept the loss in personal freedoms in exchange for Simon Cowel, cheap tastless lager, mobile phones, and football statistics. Tudor kings would never have given up power if they were able to put a CCTV camera in every village, would they?

Back to the OP; house prices are not going to get any more 'affordable' because the last 50 years labour based wealth mechanisms have been replaced by banking.

Everything is going to get more expensive. Period.

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True.. but it's more a case that for much of human history, a small caste of people have held essentially all political/military and economic power, with untrammeled rights to do what they like with the vast majority of peasants/serfs/slaves.

It's been rare indeed for things like the rule of law (where the law actually applied to everyone), private property rights, non-nobles being allowed to accumulate wealth, commoners being allowed political opinions, advancement based on ability, free inquiry, etc to exist for any length of time. Of course, when they do exist you find that the countries that practice them leap ahead of their neighbors economically and militarily.

The main lesson of anthropology is that there has been a huge variety of forms of human society covering the full spectrum from highly egalitarian to highly stratified. Some of these forms are more stable than others. There is no norm to which we keep returning.

Edit: I recommend this book http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sick-Societies-Challenging-Primitive-Harmony/dp/0029089255

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Its pretty much a given that the next labour government will do everything in its power to raise the prices of its property like it did before. There seems only one solution to renters saving for a deposit, to move country but where?

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Is the American housing market showing strong recovery signs or is it hype there? http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/299159-obama-touts-healing-housing-market

I just heard them say "US housing market roars back" on Bloomberg or CNBC.

They have had a proper crash, have they not?

If we somehow follow them up (although ironically many parts of the UK did not follow them down) then I shudder to think. On the other hand, if we're yet to follow them down, then in 5 years of course prices might be nominally below where they are now. However, who the f*ck knows, they [the CBs] have thrown away the rule book and that puts us in some very unusual waters

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House prices up 30 or 40% = fine and dandy and to be expected.

House prices down 30 or 40% = "complete and utter unadulterated carnage".

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Who said that?

House prices up 200% in 10 years = complete and utter unadulterated carnage, being held together by people who can make stuff up as they go along doing so. Is what actually happened.

Nominal corrections of the kind you want just will not happen without serious repercussions across the rest of the economy.

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Its pretty much a given that the next labour government will do everything in its power to raise the prices of its property like it did before. There seems only one solution to renters saving for a deposit, to move country but where?

Ireland?

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I remember telling my long suffering lunch buddies houseprices were definitely crashing now as there was no way Gordon Brown/the government and his ilk could find tens of billions of pounds to prop up the banks/property market.

And then QE came along. All bets are off. I have no clue.

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I remember telling my long suffering lunch buddies houseprices were definitely crashing now as there was no way Gordon Brown/the government and his ilk could find tens of billions of pounds to prop up the banks/property market.

And then QE came along. All bets are off. I have no clue.

Did your workmates offer you up one of these in a sandwich, perhaps with a bit of mayo?

220px-Jackdaw_-_up_close_and_personal_%28552502080%29.jpg

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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