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MrB

The Chatter In The Office

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The plebs are talking about what a 'great time to buy' it is, and how house prices are about to 'shoot up'. Also lots of anecdotals about houses 'finally selling', one boomer aged has given her daughter a few grand towards a deposit.

1. Looks like Osborne has hit the target.

2. I resent more than ever the zeal from the masses re housing investments

3. Looks like a sustained period of good housing news is ahead

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I work with a couple of guys in their early-mid twenties and recently overheard them talking about buying a place, both currently rent. One was of the opinion that house prices were to high and impossible for a single person to finance on their own, the other, who has a partner, believed that it was impossible to save for any meaningful deposit whilst paying their current rent and earning the money they do.

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No less than five colleagues are all currently taking their first steps on to the scheme scam formerly known as the property ladder.

:(

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The plebs are talking about what a 'great time to buy' it is, and how house prices are about to 'shoot up'. Also lots of anecdotals about houses 'finally selling', one boomer aged has given her daughter a few grand towards a deposit.

1. Looks like Osborne has hit the target.

2. I resent more than ever the zeal from the masses re housing investments

3. Looks like a sustained period of good housing news is ahead

The plebs were spouting the same ******** in 07

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If they are buying to live in and not worried by losing money, that should be a good thing. If they are buying to make money and invest, and to buy a BTL, that's not so good. I see it as a positive. Every cloud has a silver lining.

I know a couple who are buying a new build, and that is to live in. I told them, if it is somewhere you could live in for a good time, then why not. If you make money, it is a bonus, not a guarantee.

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It's everybody's right to go to the devil in their own way I suppose. I can't see house prices rising anytime soon, food and energy prices are still on an upwards trajectory, most people I know are more skint than they have ever been in their entire lives.

My prediction is that the US will start to raise interest rates within the next 18 months at most and that when the do, we will follow suit. When America sneezes, we catch a cold etc.

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I know a couple who are buying a new build, and that is to live in. I told them, if it is somewhere you could live in for a good time, then why not. If you make money, it is a bonus, not a guarantee.

Because buying with an enormous mortgage on a house with a value at a temporary high when interest rates are very very low is very dangerous.

When rates rise their repayments more than double at a time of continued recession, insecure jobs and stagnant or falling wages. And rising other living costs. They won't be able to sell due to negative equity so can't move for work.

It's a crazy step to take in this environment.

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A new build is like a new car, devalues by 20% the first time you put the key in the door. The worst of all worlds. Still, you just cannot reason with people who sit around glued to property porn on the TV.

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Come on, the Government is propping up prices, giving guarantees, and pretty much signalling that prices will go up and now is the time to buy. Osborne's bribe is working and, frankly, they are right - prices will go up and are being back by the taxpayer. It's odious, it is building up even more trouble ahead, but much as I hate to say it it looks very likely it's going to happen and prices will go up until at least the election.

God, that was really hard to admit!

ETA: Another sad thing to admit - we are Japan and will have low interest rates for a long time yet.

Edited by mikthe20

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Come on, the Government is propping up prices, giving guarantees, and pretty much signalling that prices will go up and now is the time to buy. Osborne's bribe is working and, frankly, they are right - prices will go up and are being back by the taxpayer. It's odious, it is building up even more trouble ahead, but much as I hate to say it it looks very likely it's going to happen and prices will go up until at least the election.

The next election is 2 years away, a mortgage lasts for 25 years.

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Come on, the Government is propping up prices, giving guarantees, and pretty much signalling that prices will go up and now is the time to buy. Osborne's bribe is working and, frankly, they are right -

Its kicking the can further assuming it works. Those suckered in to this are going to suffer, what are the government going to do, extend this government backed loan indefinitely? Banks have been instructed not to lend irresponsibly and also instructed to lend irresponsibly. I've no idea what they do in response to that, but bank of Ireland raising the cost of borrowing independent of the base rate is an interesting development.

The cost of borrowing can increase regardless of the base rate.

They've made it impossible to buy property with a mortgage responsibly, and tell the banks to only lend responsibly. How can a borrower meet the lenders requirements ? It should be impossible, we shall see.

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Because buying with an enormous mortgage on a house with a value at a temporary high when interest rates are very very low is very dangerous.

When rates rise their repayments more than double at a time of continued recession, insecure jobs and stagnant or falling wages. And rising other living costs. They won't be able to sell due to negative equity so can't move for work.

It's a crazy step to take in this environment.

Of course, that could happen, I have told them about this site and they also have read MSE. They can't wait no more.

No one knows the future, and it was no different in 2004 when I first joined HPC. After all this time and analysis, the rigged housing market has been difficult to time and call. They have to make up their own minds and make the preparations to have some lee-way if things get tight.

It could go Japanese for the next 20 years, or we could get a spike in IR like in the 1990s - just make sure people get a long fixed rate. Plan for everything.

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I think we are going to see nominal price rises in house prices until the shtf in a huge way.

The government will devalue, pursue an inflationary policy and underwrite the housing market.

The take up on the 20% guarantee will be much higher than most of us hoped, and then that's the government tied in another way to inflating the housing market.

The Tories are 'local-ising' planning decisions which will ensure more nimby-ism, so supply is going to be restricted for a while.

Credit availability is going up and the 20% means that the banks will lend to people that shouldn't be in a position to buy a house. 5 year 2.5% mortgages are hardly onerous, so once again the prudent will get a kicking.

Short term-ism will win the day again.

We had a massive financial crash and we still have ridiculous house prices, but as only the old vote and high house prices are important to them, that's what we will get.

-

I don't see a way out. I should have bet my deposit on house-builders shares like I considered (if they go down so have house prices, if house prices go up then so do shares) I'd have the cash to buy a decent house without a mortgage!

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The next election is 2 years away, a mortgage lasts for 25 years.

To be honest, that's the only reason that I'm not even considering buying at the moment, houses look like poor value but the monthly payments at current interest rates would be comparable, or cheaper than renting, but there's still massive uncertainty.

Now, if someone were to offer 3% 25 year fixed mortages, I think we'd just throw in the towel and buy. I know nothing in life is certain, but what a shame that owning your home has been turned into a form of gambling.

Edited by Fishbone Glover

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Come on, the Government is propping up prices, giving guarantees, and pretty much signalling that prices will go up and now is the time to buy. Osborne's bribe is working and, frankly, they are right - prices will go up and are being back by the taxpayer. It's odious, it is building up even more trouble ahead, but much as I hate to say it it looks very likely it's going to happen and prices will go up until at least the election.

God, that was really hard to admit!

ETA: Another sad thing to admit - we are Japan and will have low interest rates for a long time yet.

This thread makes it sound very likely to be the case that I'd see 'sold sold sold' everywhere if I checked my usual RM areas. I think then that I won't bother and take it as red, or should that be green sold stc gifs all over the place if I did a search

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No one knows the future, and it was no different in 2004 when I first joined HPC.

Things have moved on a bit since 2004, the crisis coming to a head in 08 and recessionary times since then for a start. Money printing, euro crisis rumbling on with blatant wealth confiscation a more recent highlight.. its not as if the views on this site were just so left field as to be nonsense is it?

God knows whats next. A spike in the cost of borrowing and repossessions on a scale never before seen is as likely as anything else in my opinion, and with a doubling or more of your mortgage repayments a very real likelihood at some point over the mortgage term the benefits of 'buying' versus renting don't look worth the risk to me.

I believe it is far better to rent in the medium term whilst saving. The cost of renting is the same as the interest portion of a repayment mortgage on a property of the same value as the mortgage, instead of putting the difference into a house and committing to a purchase price today and an enormous loan today why not save it for a later purchase where you'd have a more favourable LTV hopefully at a lower price?

Unless security of tenure is worth this enormous risk it seems an obvious strategy to me.

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The current interest rate is roughly a 1/10 of the norm. Whose petticoat will they be blubbing into when reality visits? (I expect it will be our MPs' providing a different sort of relief no No.2's in call boys mouth).

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Come on, the Government is propping up prices, giving guarantees, and pretty much signalling that prices will go up and now is the time to buy. Osborne's bribe is working and, frankly, they are right - prices will go up and are being back by the taxpayer. It's odious, it is building up even more trouble ahead, but much as I hate to say it it looks very likely it's going to happen and prices will go up until at least the election.

God, that was really hard to admit!

ETA: Another sad thing to admit - we are Japan and will have low interest rates for a long time yet.

I disagree,sales volumes are plummeting, the government can`t contain UKIP let alone house price deflation, it is here to stay.

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I wonder if 'help to buy' is also setting the government up for legal claims in the future as people could claim that their acceptance on the scheme constituted a form of financial advice?

So if a lot of these subsidised borrowers find themselves underwater in the future they could probably cobble together some kind of claim that they were victims of a state sponsored con- which in a way would be true.

It would be interesting to see the contract for a 'help to buy' scheme- and if any legal clauses have been put in there to protect the government in case any of their human sacrifices do get burned in the future.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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