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Bank Predicts Pick-up In Growth In The New Year

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...1869452,00.html

Bank predicts pick-up in growth in the new year

THE Bank of England will this week concede that economic growth has come in below its expectations, while inflation has overshot its forecasts. But it will also predict a significant pick-up in growth next year. . .
The Bank’s quarterly inflation report, closely watched in the City, will confirm that the cost of borrowing is likely to stay on hold until next year. It will also emphasise that there are significant “downside” risks to its prediction of stronger growth, leaving the door ajar for further rate cuts.

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:lol::lol:

This would hurt the HPC bears, maybe a fatal blow?

“Based on current oil-future prices, we judge inflation has already peaked,” he said. “Eventually, this should allow the Bank to continue to cut rates: we now expect four quarter-point moves, starting in February 2006 and ending in November.”

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:lol::lol:

This would hurt the HPC bears, maybe a fatal blow?

It would be superb...

Drop those rates...

yup.. I want to see what happens when we hit the same IR's as the americans..

What do you think will happen then ttrtr...???

Do you know...?

:)

its not pretty

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Now that News Corp has bought Propertyfinder.com I expect we will see a concerted effort to talk the market up in all of Murdoch's media outlets. Sky News/The Sun will roll out the sensationalist headlines, The Times will be used for psuedo intellectual spin.

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Bank predicts pick-up in growth in the new year

Seems to me Mervin, Al and all those dudes are saying repeatedly that the asset bubble almost certainly will, mess up the ecconomies in the developed world in the near future. I am saving like a bstrd in anticipation. Seen to many bubles grow and pop. Having experianced the tech bubble, the new ecconomy and a couple of stock market crashes, none of which seemed posssible, I am not reasured by a forecast of growth.

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It would be superb...

Drop those rates...

yup.. I want to see what happens when we hit the same IR's as the americans..

What do you think will happen then ttrtr...???

Do you know...?

:)

its not pretty

Please do tell.

No point wasting the opportunity to put another poorly thought out prediction down on record.....

Having experianced the tech bubble, the new ecconomy and a couple of stock market crashes, none of which seemed posssible, I am not reasured by a forecast of growth.

Sure you're not talking of the same bubble there?

:lol::lol:

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Sorry guys but you lot just can't see the wood for the tree's.

You are totally blinkered by the HPC goggles that you are all wearing - you are so desperate to be proved right that any other outcome other than economic meltdown and HPC are ridiculed.

Just get real for a bit and you will see this just isn't going to happen.

The most likely outcome is that next year just potters along, growth o.k. but nothing fantastic and IRs will slowly come down. By all means learn from the past but don't assume the future is just a re-run of the past cos it won't be.

Oil price seems to be the immediate issue - its going down, and will reduce inflation. If we have a mild winter (so far so good, hence the price is going down nicely) then oil price will keep going down. By February, and end of winter is in sight then assuming its not been cold, then oil price will probably start to drop quickly. A cold winter will just slow this process down a couple of months.

Our economy won't be going great guns and hence MPC will have the option to cut IRs, expecially if Xmas trading is poor. This may reduce £/$ rate, and in the past would have imported inflation, but there is so much global production capacity that they are fighting to get our £ off us in the way of imports. This will keep the lid on inflation.

So what will happen to house prices - not a lot, as IRs reduce, it will ease the pressure on debtors and whilst people can afford it they will keep borrowing.

Also, physcology is at play. Sellers just don't want to drop prices - in a high inflation environment, then not dropping prices just masks the issue as 'real' prices actually fall. This is what largely happened last time. Most of the 'fall' was due to inflation.

This time inflation is low and won't mask the falls - the trouble is, there won't be any whilst people can afford those big mortgages. Sellers just won't want to drop them and thats why prices are so sticky.

I've been looking at the reductions in asking price in my neck of the woods - just about all are those sellers that tried to price at 20% over last year. They can't make 'em stick. Reality is that if you price at the same price as last year, you will get a buyer.

I just can't see unemployment or IRs rocketing to create the pain to increase the forced seller mentality.

Better go to your caves and start the long hibernation me old bears. zzz zzz zzz zzz zzz zzz zzz

TTRTR - you can keep on earning lots of money !!!!!

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Please do tell.

No point wasting the opportunity to put another poorly thought out prediction down on record.....

Sure you're not talking of the same bubble there?

:lol::lol:

Sorry..

I thought it was a known and accepted fact,

Read up yourself...

Read up what the americans are now saying about the investments in the dollar in the global currency markets..

See how the rises there are pushing the dollar up against us and the others with the promises of more rises..

You must know what happens if they catch up and even overtake us..

Phrase "Run on the pound" not mean anything..

It was global currency markets, IR's rates.. our close ties to the German Currency in the late 80's and our failure to respond in time that caused the 15% panic IR's to protect the pound..

you nvest in property .. you must have looked at what caused the last downturn trigger before you invested your money..

Predicting an economic down turn after an up turn does not gain you a Nobel Prize in Economics nowadays..

and never has.

Just because money was easy to make does not mean it is safe.

Infact if it didn't take even a basic level of understanding to make it.. I would at least build up some understanding to try and keep it....

True investors left a while ago..

another question.

HJow many banks and building societies have moved away from investing their own money in property???

Christ...

If you are at a party.. and its really cool.. and then the party begins to suck a bit...

Is it because the cool people have left??

or do all parties eventually die.. and you have to know when to leave...

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Sure you're not talking of the same bubble there?

Yes, sorry. I forget what bubble was what. There have been so many. I should of course have said a house price crash. Or did I dream it. They dont go down do they?

Appologies.

Edited by jellybean

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Above inflation payrises in the governmental sector - why shouldnt the economy continue to grow - thats what has driven it since Gordy took over the cheque book.

Because the snake is eating itself.

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Sorry guys but you lot just can't see the wood for the tree's.

Oil price seems to be the immediate issue - its going down, and will reduce inflation. If we have a mild winter (so far so good, hence the price is going down nicely) then oil price will keep going down. By February, and end of winter is in sight then assuming its not been cold, then oil price will probably start to drop quickly. A cold winter will just slow this process down a couple of months.

Oil is only going down from its peak. It's still higher than it was at the beginning of the year!

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Second biggest field in the world starts to run out as production drops, is Simmons right about the nearness of peak oil after all? If he is then with world demand for oil still rising the situation can only come to a head quicker - what is it going to be debt inflated growth or reduced growth and a little more breathing time to find an alternative?

http://www.ameinfo.com/71519.html

Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil

Edited by OnlyMe

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Now that News Corp has bought Propertyfinder.com I expect we will see a concerted effort to talk the market up in all of Murdoch's media outlets. Sky News/The Sun will roll out the sensationalist headlines, The Times will be used for psuedo intellectual spin.

Interesting. Perhaps they will for a bit, but there's a difference between Estate Agents and property portals. Estate Agents need sales so they want both willing sellers and willing sellers. Thus bearishness hurts them until the sellers get more real about the price (after that they can talk the market down to their hearts' contents). Property portals on the other hand need listings. Desperate sellers mean sellers trying more means of marketing rather than simply relying on the Estate Agent's window and hot prospects list.

So property portals have a vested interest in a market panic, although I fully accept that they probably do not see that yet.

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I just can't see unemployment or IRs rocketing to create the pain to increase the forced seller mentality.

Better go to your caves and start the long hibernation me old bears. zzz zzz zzz zzz zzz zzz zzz

TTRTR - you can keep on earning lots of money !!!!!

Well.. I am not hibernating..

I spent four hours tearing up the countryside on my motorbike today..

Had a nice lunch...

watched master and commander this evenig.. not bad..

If you think IR's exist solely to protect those in huge debt.. and if you are right...

This would lead to odd times.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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