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zugzwang

Ons: Double Dip Recession 'a Blip'

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I recall Gordo once suggesting in parliament that the economy would continue to enjoy positive growth of 0%.... to gales of laughter from both Tory and Labour benches. laugh.gif

Maybe it's being done for local election purposes, but there does seem to be a concerted effort under way to talk up the economy. Alternatively, the bogus austerity meme is being quietly retired ahead of Carney's coronation.

http://www.guardian....sion-doubts-ons

Double-dip recession could have been a 'statistical error', ONS says

Office for National Statistics says that the trend in economic output was 'best described as flat'

The standard definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and the ONS's current estimates show nine months of consistent decline, starting in the final quarter of 2011.

But with revised GDP figures for the last few years due to be published on 27 June, the ONS used its latest Economic Review to point out that two of the relevant quarters saw just a 0.1% fall, and the third – April to June 2012 – was distorted by the extra bank holiday for the Queen's diamond jubilee.

"When growth is very weak, the difference between, say, estimated growth of 0.1% and -0.1% in a quarter is actually within the statistical margin of error," the ONS said. "Rather than relying on small changes in quarterly growth rates to justify calling a recession, we should consider the growth rate of the economy over a longer period".

Since the third quarter of 2010, the report added, the trend in economic output was "best described as one that is flat or at best gently rising".

A spokesman for the ONS insisted that the data was just as likely to be revised down – making the double dip deeper – as up. But City analysts said they wouldn't be surprised if the recession eventually disappeared from the official records.

Chris Williamson, of data provider Markit, said: "I think we're in for some fairly significant revisions, and they seem to be pointing to that period where the official figures show a double dip, but the business surveys were strong."

The ONS report was published as respected thinktank the National Institute for Economic & Social Research revised up its forecast for GDP this year, but cautioned that the latest estimate of 0.9% growth would not have much impact on the jobs market.

Edited by zugzwang

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I recall Gordo once suggesting in parliament that the economy would continue to enjoy positive growth of 0%.... to gales of laughter from both Tory and Labour benches. laugh.gif

Maybe it's being done for local election purposes, but there does seem to be a concerted effort under way to talk up the economy. Alternatively, the bogus austerity meme is being quietly retired ahead of Carney's coronation.

http://www.guardian....sion-doubts-ons

Um, yeah, right.

If asked to name one newspaper unlikely to want to 'talk up' a Tory-led government, what would you name?

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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