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I am having a SERIOUS "lies, damn lies, and statistics" moment...

The data here show that the NW price in April 2010 was the same as the NW price in Feb 2013:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-rightmove-national.php#graph

Yet, the YoY figure has been POSITIVE in EVERY MONTH (bar one) since then. How is that actually possible? I am really concerned that either ( a ) my conceptual understanding of statistics is not what I thought it was, or ( b ) there is some Cadbury's Fudging going on.

Can anyone put my mind at rest......?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!!?

:huh:

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I am having a SERIOUS "lies, damn lies, and statistics" moment...

The data here show that the NW price in April 2010 was the same as the NW price in Feb 2013:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-rightmove-national.php#graph

Yet, the YoY figure has been POSITIVE in EVERY MONTH (bar one) since then. How is that actually possible? I am really concerned that either ( a ) my conceptual understanding of statistics is not what I thought it was, or ( b ) there is some Cadbury's Fudging going on.

Can anyone put my mind at rest......?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!!?

:huh:

Yes, you are forgetting a very important statistical method that comes into play here.

What you need to do in order to get the same result as the official figures is what professional statisticians call

"pull all the numbers out of your ****".

It's a difficult manoeuvre but they are getting quite good at it now.

Only trouble is, in order to get a firm grasp of the figures, they also have to loosen their grip on reality.

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I am having a SERIOUS "lies, damn lies, and statistics" moment...

The data here show that the NW price in April 2010 was the same as the NW price in Feb 2013:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-rightmove-national.php#graph

Yet, the YoY figure has been POSITIVE in EVERY MONTH (bar one) since then. How is that actually possible? I am really concerned that either ( a ) my conceptual understanding of statistics is not what I thought it was, or ( b ) there is some Cadbury's Fudging going on.

Can anyone put my mind at rest......?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!!?

:huh:

Because the YoY figure doesn't really look at the number, it looks at the number as against prior numbers.

Essentially, if in a given month, house prices are 50% lower than they were in the month before - but that in that month, house prices always go down, and in that month the year before they'd gone 60% from the month before - the YoY would show a rise.

For the MoM figure, you see how prices are changing. For the YoY figure, you see how the rollercoaster fits as against previous rollercoasters, but it tells you very little, if anything, about what's happening to the actual data.

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Because the YoY figure doesn't really look at the number, it looks at the number as against prior numbers.

Essentially, if in a given month, house prices are 50% lower than they were in the month before - but that in that month, house prices always go down, and in that month the year before they'd gone 60% from the month before - the YoY would show a rise.

For the MoM figure, you see how prices are changing. For the YoY figure, you see how the rollercoaster fits as against previous rollercoasters, but it tells you very little, if anything, about what's happening to the actual data.

Hypothetical months:

Jan, year 3050. Price: 200 YottaSterlings (Ys)

Feb 3050, 80Ys

Jan 3051, 100Ys

Feb 3051, 50Ys

Fits your % change scenario, but the YoY is -37.5%, not a rise.

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Hypothetical months:

Jan, year 3050. Price: 200 YottaSterlings (Ys)

Feb 3050, 80Ys

Jan 3051, 100Ys

Feb 3051, 50Ys

Fits your % change scenario, but the YoY is -37.5%, not a rise.

Real months in the index link above. Sorry for trying to make it simple.

The point is, there's nothing wrong with the stats. Each year starts in the 220s, finishes in the 220s, and passes through the 240s. The MoM reflects this, with some big downs, but the YoY merely compares the curves.

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''Alter little in March'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22357692

They email fall - fell 0.1%.

Must be the snow.

The NE - my home region - managed a fall of 5% over the year.

The story is the number of transaction not the price rises or falls.

No talk on those.

Most of the country is well below the probate rate.

I think the March headline is a mistake, as they then talk about the 0.1% fall in April !

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It's pretty sick when you think about it that 3 or 4 times a month it is classed as a national news story to print the price of house. Can you imagine if they did the same for bread or something, maybe tractors?

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They are such weasels at the BBC. Take this...

The Nationwide survey, which is based on its own mortgage data, found that prices across the UK had risen by 0.5% in the past three months compared with the previous three months.

No, prices have not risen across the UK. They have risen in London and fallen elsewhere.

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They are such weasels at the BBC. Take this...

But then there's this...

Many current homeowners would be concerned by such falls, although it is good news for some looking to buy a property for the first time.

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They are such weasels at the BBC. Take this...

Cut and paste journalism at it's best.

It's not that the BBC writers have any particular bias either way, it's simply that they allow the Nationwide to write their headlines for them.

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"...The 0.9% annual rise is the largest increase for years".

Is that bearish - might give a few people pause for thought if they only read Express/Mail and thought prices have been rising fast?

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  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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