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Housepricecrash Radio This Morning

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Today program radio4, business slot around 6.15, haven't heard comments like it outside this site, interviewer begged to be cheered up afterwards.

Worth a listen.

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The picture he painted just sounds like an obvious statement of reality to me, yet the two other voices seemed to disagree and call it a doomsday scenario. You never get to hear any rationale behind objections to the reality when it is spoken I have noted, just fingers in ears la la la I'm not listening. I'd love to hear an actual coherent argument against the point of view expressed by the finance chap, I haven't yet.

When did saying that interest rates at 5% is actually pretty normal become such an outrageous statement?

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He made complete sense to me - and well done him for coming back on the silly journo question about his claims being a doomsday scenario.

I think we are all right, on here, about eventual inflation and higher IRs but the question is how and when... and when might be many years away yet. For now there is endless money printing and most of that money printing is going into shares and property.

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"The economy is going nowhere for the next 20 years... Inflation is coming down the line... Interest rates are going to soar..."

Yep, that was pretty hardcore. The guy is a Professor of Finance at Nottingham Trent Uni AND runs a Hedge Fund. Running a Hedge Fund is the better credential, I think. Those guys actually know what they are talking about - unlike academics. Of course it looks like the government are going to ignore inflation and just let sterling rot so prediction number 3 may be wrong, while the first two are right.

Edited by Nationalist

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"The economy is going nowhere for the next 20 years... Inflation is coming down the line... Interest rates are going to soar..."

Yep, that was pretty hardcore. The guy is a Professor of Finance at Nottingham Trent Uni AND runs a Hedge Fund. Running a Hedge Fund is the better credential, I think. Those guys actually know what they are talking about - unlike academics. Of course it looks like the government are going to ignore inflation and just let sterling rot so prediction number 3 may be wrong, while the first two are right.

Here's yer man. He came across very well:

http://www.ntu.ac.uk/apps/staff_profiles/staff_directory/135699-2/26/Christopher_Clarke.aspx

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Good find! I think they called him a Prof on the Today programme - he's actually only a Lecturer/Senior Lecturer (which?! It makes a difference.) And he does research into trading systems, ie, the taxpayer pays for him to research how he can make even more money as a hedgie, nice, respekt!

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"The economy is going nowhere for the next 20 years... Inflation is coming down the line... Interest rates are going to soar..."

Yes, nothing that most on here would not agree with or don't already know... but how long is that line? Months? Years? A decade?

This has been our problem all along - we have been right but we have also been wrong because TPTB have kept moving the goal-posts. In fact, they have levelled a brownfield site and built an entire new stadium.

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I just had a better perusal of his CV. Twelve years as a trader at Goldman Sachs. That's street cred.

But unfortunately, like every other commentator he cannot say "when", and he cannot be sure the government will actually respond to the inflation by raising the base rate.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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