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S&p 500 Climbs To Record On Home Sales+ Stimulus Optimism

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All over? It's barely begun! Carnage isn't even in the stirrups yet.

Reduced treasury supply + relentless QE = Mt Etna-style stock market blow-offs.

I've had a mid-2013 target of 1620 since last November. Looks like we get there in May. ohmy.gifcool.gif

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Soon letter boxes will be crammed full with adverts for the likes of

http://

info.redhotpennyshares.co.uk/?infinity=gaw~UKGOO%2BPENSH%2BSPART%2BPenny%20Shares~UKGOO%2BPENSH%2BEXACT%2BSPCFC%2BPenny%20Shares~23391798968~penny%20shares~e&gclid=CN-Q-cn_8bYCFa7MtAod3WIAWA&utm_expid=6739619-0&utm_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2Faclk%3Fsa%3Dl%26ai%3DCsxZ_x4N_UcC3GNGZ0wWQroCIDJii3-wBkPLtlVeo7eMqCAAQASgDUOb28LUBYLuusoPQCqABkMGR_QPIAQGpAiCF8eZ3-bk-qgQiT9CGBeDuYz_FvwWljIHSw61Dmcn8HtMflejFCXrt7WtfULoFEwjykKPE__G2AhUGE7QKHcQ0AOTKBQCAB9i-7gI%26rct%3Dj%26q%3Dpenny%2520shares%26ei%3Dx4N_UbKRFoam0AXE6YCgDg%26sig%3DAOD64_1IDCSOdAe_KBIKt34c3xlnSUOkEw%26sqi%3D2%26ved%3D0CC8Q0Qw%26adurl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Finfo.redhotpennyshares.co.uk%253Finfinity%253Dgaw~UKGOO%25252BPENSH%25252BSPART%25252BPenny%252520Shares~UKGOO%25252BPENSH%25252BEXACT%25252BSPCFC%25252BPenny%252520Shares~23391798968~penny%252520shares~e

You don’t need a lot of money to start investing in penny shares in 2013 – but they could make you a potential fortune in less than 12 months…

Rarely featured in the press and “off limits” to most investors, because the big fund managers can’t trade them…

Penny shares have outperformed blue-chips, every single year, for the past 57 years

The only stock class with the power to double your investment, virtually overnight

Mind you

http://

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/penny-shares-can-cost-you-a-packet-1146315.html

Edited by billybong

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We haven't had the crash yet. It's going to be hilarious when it happens.

An early warning -

Dallas Fed Implodes: Biggest Drop And Miss On Record Send Market To Intraday Highs

- the biggest miss to expectations on record

- the biggest one month drop on record

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/dallas-fed-implodes-biggest-drop-and-miss-record-send-market-intraday-highs

Edited by Errol

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What happens in June?

I re-balance my trades! But I'm not expecting to change much (yet). I need more gold but will probably wait til next year. With the Fed and BoJ pumping $200bn/month into the dealer accounts and Carney about to light up the debt fireworks over here there's plenty of upside potential to come. FTSE 100 should hit 7000 this year, no probs. Consumer inflation is the only thing that will make them stop and that's still subdued.

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I re-balance my trades! But I'm not expecting to change much (yet). I need more gold but will probably wait til next year. With the Fed and BoJ pumping $200bn/month into the dealer accounts and Carney about to light up the debt fireworks over here there's plenty of upside potential to come. FTSE 100 should hit 7000 this year, no probs. Consumer inflation is the only thing that will make them stop and that's still subdued.

What do you think of this? DOW falls in Aprl/May for the past 3 years?

4-22-13-dji1.png

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I re-balance my trades! But I'm not expecting to change much (yet). I need more gold but will probably wait til next year. With the Fed and BoJ pumping $200bn/month into the dealer accounts and Carney about to light up the debt fireworks over here there's plenty of upside potential to come. FTSE 100 should hit 7000 this year, no probs. Consumer inflation is the only thing that will make them stop and that's still subdued.

Yes, Carney is what is at the back of my mind. I keep reading articles about him going to print like they have done in Japan?

If he does then that means, just like Japan, our currency will plunge against other currencies and share prices will surge? Or is it not that simple?

I don't think consumer inflation will make them stop. OK, eventually it will but I think they are happy to ignore grinding upwards inflation for years to come.

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Welcome Back Recession: Chicago PMI Implodes To 49, First Sub-50 Print Since September 2009

Total collapse. That is the only way to explain what just happened with the Chicago PMI which imploded from 52.4, and printed at a contractionary 49: the first sub-50 headline print since September 2009. But that's not all: Deliveries, Prices Paid and Production all hit their lowest since 2009; Backlogs posted their tenth month of contraction in the past 12 months.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-30/welcome-back-recession-chicago-pmi-implodes-49-first-sub-50-print-septmber-2009

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history never repeats itself...

I don't know about that.

A friend of mine's father was preparing to blow up a bridge in France in 1940. Whilst laying the charges they saw an old French bloke wander up and take a keen interest in what they were doing.

When asked why he was so interested he apparently replied that he had blown up the same bridge in 1914.

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Welcome Back Recession: Chicago PMI Implodes To 49, First Sub-50 Print Since September 2009

Total collapse. That is the only way to explain what just happened with the Chicago PMI which imploded from 52.4, and printed at a contractionary 49: the first sub-50 headline print since September 2009. But that's not all: Deliveries, Prices Paid and Production all hit their lowest since 2009; Backlogs posted their tenth month of contraction in the past 12 months.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-30/welcome-back-recession-chicago-pmi-implodes-49-first-sub-50-print-septmber-2009

I have no idea what this means for the global economy but I am going to pretend that I do and hope that some other idiot asks the obvious.

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Yes, Carney is what is at the back of my mind. I keep reading articles about him going to print like they have done in Japan?

If he does then that means, just like Japan, our currency will plunge against other currencies and share prices will surge? Or is it not that simple?

I don't think consumer inflation will make them stop. OK, eventually it will but I think they are happy to ignore grinding upwards inflation for years to come.

I don't trade individual stocks (too risky) but a diversified portfolio of ETFs, trackers and physical gold which I review every quarter and sometimes re-weight with cycles analysis. The mistake most people make is to assume the stock market is a reflection of the strength of the underlying economy. Sometimes it is, as often not. Occasionally the two are anti-correlated. If stock markets were driven primarily by sentiment or fundamentals this could never happen. What if they're driven primarily by central bank intervention instead, especially during recessions? Follow the liquidity: the more we get, the higher we go.

Everybody's second guessing Carney's intentions but he has plenty of form as an aggressive reflationista. Cameron and Osborne manifestly have few ideological convictions against govt spending provided it can be dressed up to look like austerity. Osborne has effectively backed away from balancing the budget until the end of the next parliament, a more or less open commitment to keep printing since the additional debt could never be got away on the open market for a sensible coupon.

The greatest risk to stability is oil price inflation similar to that seen in 2008. I suspect the economy can stagger on under an increasing burden of debt for a few more years with a CPI of 3-5%, but the deflationary impact of an energy spike on the broader economy has the potential to make that debt instantly unserviceable.

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I don't trade individual stocks (too risky) but a diversified portfolio of ETFs, trackers and physical gold which I review every quarter and sometimes re-weight with cycles analysis. The mistake most people make is to assume the stock market is a reflection of the strength of the underlying economy. Sometimes it is, as often not. Occasionally the two are anti-correlated. If stock markets were driven primarily by sentiment or fundamentals this could never happen. What if they're driven primarily by central bank intervention instead, especially during recessions? Follow the liquidity: the more we get, the higher we go.

Everybody's second guessing Carney's intentions but he has plenty of form as an aggressive reflationista. Cameron and Osborne manifestly have few ideological convictions against govt spending provided it can be dressed up to look like austerity. Osborne has effectively backed away from balancing the budget until the end of the next parliament, a more or less open commitment to keep printing since the additional debt could never be got away on the open market for a sensible coupon.

The greatest risk to stability is oil price inflation similar to that seen in 2008. I suspect the economy can stagger on under an increasing burden of debt for a few more years with a CPI of 3-5%, but the deflationary impact of an energy spike on the broader economy has the potential to make that debt instantly unserviceable.

Good reasoning.

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  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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