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rantnrave

Land Reg March 2013

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A seasonally adjusted rise of 0.1% (otherwise a fall).

£161,793 (Feb fig £162,606, so down close to a grand)

Up 0.1% MoM, Up 0.9% YoY

Full report here

http://www.landregis...ort20130423.pdf

March house prices up 0.1 per cent since February: average house price in England and Wales now £161,793<LI>1,317 repossessions in England and Wales during January 2013<LI>South East tops the table of regional applications with 245,168 in March<LI>Over 47,600 residential properties in England and Wales lodged for registration in March ranging from £14,000 to £12.5 million.

The March data from Land Registry's House Price Index shows an annual price increase of 0.9 per cent which takes the average property value in England and Wales to £161,793. The monthly change from February to March shows an increase of 0.1 per cent. Repossession volumes decreased by 18 per cent in January 2013 to 1,317 compared with 1,602 in January 2012.

  • The region in England and Wales which experienced the greatest increase in its average property value over the last 12 months is London with a movement of 9.6 per cent.
  • London also experienced the greatest monthly rise with a movement of 2.5 per cent.
  • The region with the greatest annual price fall is the North East with a decrease of 5.5 per cent.
  • The North West saw the most significant monthly price fall with a decrease of 2.5 per cent.
  • The most up-to-date figures available show that during January 2013, the number of completed house sales in England and Wales decreased by 5 per cent to 41,763 compared with 43,752 in January 2012.
  • The number of properties sold in England and Wales for over £1 million in January 2013 increased by 28 per cent to 610 from 476 in January 2012.
  • London and Wales were the only regions to see an increase in repossessions of 28 per cent and 24 per cent respectively (January 2013 compared with January 2012).
Edited by rantnrave

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London is going parabolic.

Look at the data on London, volumes by sale price are spiking in the £800k+ bracket, so anything Prime through to Super Prime is going gangbusters. Not difficult to see the read-across into London being a safe haven for the smart money leaving the Eurozone... :)

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Look at the data on London, volumes by sale price are spiking in the £800k+ bracket, so anything Prime through to Super Prime is going gangbusters. Not difficult to see the read-across into London being a safe haven for the smart money leaving the Eurozone... :)

Interestingly volumes are crashing in the sub-200k groupings. Is this because:

(a) fewer FTBs able/willing to borrow.

(B) fewer BTL landlords interested in this end of the market - returns already driven down by high prices.

© the whole market is rising upwards and there are just fewer properties at these price levels any more.

(d) poor people less willing to go out in the cold weather. That's why they're poor.

(e) the profile of London buyers is shifting away from those interested in homes at this end (studios, 1-bed flats).

I suspect © accounts for most of it due to the relentless HPI in London in the last few years.

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Interestingly volumes are crashing in the sub-200k groupings. Is this because:

(a) fewer FTBs able/willing to borrow.

(B) fewer BTL landlords interested in this end of the market - returns already driven down by high prices.

© the whole market is rising upwards and there are just fewer properties at these price levels any more.

(d) poor people less willing to go out in the cold weather. That's why they're poor.

(e) the profile of London buyers is shifting away from those interested in homes at this end (studios, 1-bed flats).

I suspect © accounts for most of it due to the relentless HPI in London in the last few years.

I keep an eye on the market in some of the SW postcodes (SW4, SW12, SW11, SW14, SW15, SW18) and there is feck-all in the sub-£200k bracket. Even the £200-250k bracket is 'slim pickings'. It really is mental! But when you struggle to rent a shoe box flat near transport for less than £15k a year, this is a 6% yield (minus expenses) to BTL'r

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London's seasonally adjusted sales volumes seem to have dropped quite sharply (page 12).

Proper link

The seasonally adjusted line is the green one - they have risen sharply! Since the announcement of LFH in fact. I am expecting this trend to continue as those buyers who can, rush to get in before a flood of new entrants arrive next April to push prices up another 20%. I also expect the effect to be far more pronounced in London due to the larger deposits required.

Reminiscent of the Lawson MIRAS-withdrawal boom which poured petrol on the flames during the late 80s bubble. Hard to believe we can have a bubble on top of another bubble but I guess anything's possible. A mighty big two fingers to all those under 45, and to add insult part of their taxes is being used to keep them out of the housing market.

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The seasonally adjusted line is the green one - they have risen sharply! Since the announcement of LFH in fact. I am expecting this trend to continue as those buyers who can, rush to get in before a flood of new entrants arrive next April to push prices up another 20%. I also expect the effect to be far more pronounced in London due to the larger deposits required.

Reminiscent of the Lawson MIRAS-withdrawal boom which poured petrol on the flames during the late 80s bubble. Hard to believe we can have a bubble on top of another bubble but I guess anything's possible. A mighty big two fingers to all those under 45, and to add insult part of their taxes is being used to keep them out of the housing market.

Sorry, I meant non-seasonally adjusted. Which surprises me, as I thought they would be seasonally adjusted down in March, supposedly a busy time? Unless it's because actual sales lag agreements by a couple of months.

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Everyone rushed to buy before the double tax relief was withdrawn ... paying over the asking price to get the 'free' money. What happened after the MIRAS double tax relief was withdrawn?

Let me guess: the government offered 20% interest free loans for a few years?

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Sorry, I meant non-seasonally adjusted. Which surprises me, as I thought they would be seasonally adjusted down in March, supposedly a busy time? Unless it's because actual sales lag agreements by a couple of months.

Transaction data is even more laggy. These are January's numbers in this report.

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Everyone rushed to buy before the double tax relief was withdrawn ... paying over the asking price to get the 'free' money. What happened after the MIRAS double tax relief was withdrawn?

We joined the ERM.

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I keep an eye on the market in some of the SW postcodes (SW4, SW12, SW11, SW14, SW15, SW18) and there is feck-all in the sub-£200k bracket. Even the £200-250k bracket is 'slim pickings'. It really is mental! But when you struggle to rent a shoe box flat near transport for less than £15k a year, this is a 6% yield (minus expenses) to BTL'r

Whereas many se postcodes have loads under 200k. Many within 30 mins of central terminals. At 2005 prices. London is a divided city and rises are not ever

ywhere.

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Just checked the latest IG Index spreads (Sell, (mid-point), Buy) on Halifax house prices and compared them to what I posted earlier.

9 Dec 2012

Mar 13, 158.5 (159.4) 160.3

Jun 13, 157.8 (158.9) 160.0

Sep 13, 157.1 (158.4) 159.7

07 Jan 2013

Mar 13, 162.7 (163.4) 164.1

Jun 13, 162.0 (162.9) 163.8

Sep 13, 161.3 (162.4) 163.5

Dec 13 160.6 (161.9) 163.2

Those were from here http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=186494&view=findpost&p=909230286

Now 29 Apr 2013

Jun 13, 163.5 (164.2) 164.9

Sep 13, 163.5 (164.4) 165.3

Dec 13, 163.5 (164.6) 165.7

Mar 14, 163.3 (164.6) 165.9

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Whereas many se postcodes have loads under 200k. Many within 30 mins of central terminals. At 2005 prices. London is a divided city and rises are not ever

ywhere.

Exactly - plenty in east London too where prices are similarly not that far off 2005 prices despite the Olympics bubble. E11 - one of the nicer E postcodes covering Wanstead has nearly 80 properties for sale below £200,000 on zoopla.

Most Londoners regard SW postcodes now as 'so what' i.e. who cares we cannot afford to buy there any more!

Strip out SW postcodes and certain N and EC postcodes - and you really don't need to pay an average of £370k for a property in London!

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  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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