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Albert Edwards: S&p500 To Fall 75% To 450,us 10 Year <1%, And Gold > $10,000

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You are late to the game, Bob.

The bugs already sprayed their pants over this foolcast in the gold thread :rolleyes:

I missed that. I must visit there more often

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Can someone do the maths for me?

What equities:gold ratio do I need in order to neither lose nor gain under that scenario.

Currently, I'm 50:1 equities:gold.

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http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/albert-edwards

'"The late Margaret Thatcher had a strong view about consensus. She called it: “The process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values, and policies in search of something in which no one believes, but to which no one objects.” The same applies to most market forecasts. With some rare exceptions (like our commodity analysts? recent prescient call for a slump in the gold price), analysts don?t like to stand out from the crowd. It is dangerous and career-challenging. In that vein, we repeat our key forecasts of the S&P Composite to bottom around 450, accompanied by sub-1% US 10y yields and gold above $10,000."'

I have heard that the IB pays good money for good talent and performances.

Unless his real role is a comedian or PR manager, I am totally confused about why he is still allowed to write all these.

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Unless his real role is a comedian or PR manager, I am totally confused about why he is still allowed to write all these.

Did you think the people predicting gold $1600 in 2001 were 'comedians' as well?

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Don't. It's like visiting the fourth circle of hell. They all think they've found the magic formula to get stinking rich.

And you've evidently missed the entire point. Gold is not an investment and people are not buying it to get rich. Please stop being so stupid.

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Tell us then, what are they buying for?

Insurance against a Weimer, Zimbabwe, Argentine, Brazilian etc. etc. meltdown. Please don't answer "it's different this time, or it won't happen here" or you will be slapped.

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Did you think the people predicting gold $1600 in 2001 were 'comedians' as well?

No.

But those predicting $1600 gold did not simultaneously predicting a 450 S&P. If printing goes to that extreme, everything will go up - including a £10 a loaf bread.

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Insurance against a Weimer, Zimbabwe, Argentine, Brazilian etc. etc. meltdown. Please don't answer "it's different this time, or it won't happen here" or you will be slapped.

The economic collapses you are referring to generally didn't result in a flocking to gold as a currency, but dollars or the currency of a neighbouring country that still had some semblance of normality. The average human in our modern-day hyper-connected world only becomes aware of the price of precious metals when they are buying jewellery and whilst it will always have some residual 'emotional attachment' value the thinking behind the ramping of this asset class is generally that of those that have experienced war (and the need to smuggle large amounts of wealth out of a country in easily portable form).

If the dollar implodes (and their monetary policy does seem somewhat self-destructive when looked at thru a historians' eyes), the euro or the yuan will take over, not gold or silver.

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The economic collapses you are referring to generally didn't result in a flocking to gold as a currency, but dollars or the currency of a neighbouring country that still had some semblance of normality. The average human in our modern-day hyper-connected world only becomes aware of the price of precious metals when they are buying jewellery and whilst it will always have some residual 'emotional attachment' value the thinking behind the ramping of this asset class is generally that of those that have experienced war (and the need to smuggle large amounts of wealth out of a country in easily portable form).

If the dollar implodes (and their monetary policy does seem somewhat self-destructive when looked at thru a historians' eyes), the euro or the yuan will take over, not gold or silver.

So new Jew escaped Germany in the 20's/30's with gold sewn in to their undergarments? Think you will find they did. As for betting against Uncle Sam....don't.

Edited by tomwatkins

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So new Jew escaped Germany in the 20's/30's with gold sewn in to their undergarments? Think you will find they did. As for betting against Uncle Sam....don't.

It also begs the question of which currency would the citizens turn to, and how would they get it in somewhere like the UK? Certainly, if you are in the UK and have, say, 20,000 savings, buying a couple of pieces of gold against the risk that the pound collapses seems sensible to me. If it doesnt collapse, ok, you might lose 1000 pounds or so. If it DOES collapse (by which I mean loses 50% of purchasing power for things that you need, such as food imported from overseas) you at least have enough well accepted liquid assets to tide you over for a couple of weeks/months.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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