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eric pebble

Is London's Property Market About To Grind To A Halt?

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New Statesman: Is London's property market about to grind to a halt?

A slump in the pound could slow down the market.

Thanks to their interest, property prices in London rose by an average of more than 7 per cent last year. If that seems a good return — certainly compared with property outside London — it has to be remembered that the dynamics of the British property market are quite different from the perspective of an overseas buyer. If you are out in Singapore, that 7 per cent profit has been almost completely wiped out by the slide in the value of the pound, which a year ago was trading at over two Singapore dollars but is now down to 1.87.

If you are expecting the pound to slide, it makes no sense to invest in London property. When it slumped in 2008, London property prices sank sharply with it. Now that expectations are forming once more that the pound will sink some way into the future, overseas investors have a double incentive to bail out of the market. If fellow overseas investors lose interest in London’s new-build market, it is hard to see how frothy prices can be sustained. Falling prices, compounded with a currency loss, could make a very nasty dent in their investment.

http://www.newstatesman.com/business/2013/04/londons-property-market-about-grind-halt

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Call me stupid but doesn't a weaker Pound allow rich foreigners to buy up more of the UK. We are so fecked.

If it's down 10% this year the house is 10% cheaper for them but if it's down 10% next year and the price hasn't gone up when they cash in they lose 10%?

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If it's down 10% this year the house is 10% cheaper for them but if it's down 10% next year and the price hasn't gone up when they cash in they lose 10%?

I suspect they will go up with all the pumping Osborne is doing. Heck, Carney is not even in his job officially yet.

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Property is all that's left to tax now. I expect miliband's mansion tax to be just the start and reckon the smart money is already bailing out of london property. I think we've seen the top now.

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If you are expecting the pound to slide, it makes no sense to invest in London property.

It's not just concern that overseas investors might lose interest in buying in London's poxy newbuild market. What happens when many overseas wealth of them who already own prime houses over here look at the value of their investment falling in sterling? Hopefully they become more amenable to selling, and willing to take lower offers in order to do so.

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When you see 2 bed flats on an ex council estate in Kidbrooke (zone 3) going for £435,000 - and being marketed at Asian investors - one can only believe that some people are willing to pay any price for a foothold in London (even in the borough with the highest violent crime rate in the UK!).

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-38241286.html?premiumA=true

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Call me stupid but doesn't a weaker Pound allow rich foreigners to buy up more of the UK. We are so fecked.

I would call you stupid, but you are not stupid.

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When you see 2 bed flats on an ex council estate in Kidbrooke (zone 3) going for £435,000 - and being marketed at Asian investors - one can only believe that some people are willing to pay any price for a foothold in London (even in the borough with the highest violent crime rate in the UK!).

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-38241286.html?premiumA=true

Has anyone told them yet that they have already missed the 'make a big profit in 5 seconds boat'...... ;)

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Most of London buyers are foreign. A slump in GBP will make prices cheaper to these people.

So, no. I would say its not going to grind to a halt.

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hasn't this thread been posted here at least once a year ....... for the last decade ....?

True, but they pulled out all the stops possible to plug the gaping hole......but the water is still seeping out whilst all the cards available have now been played...a joke really.......no more big leaps and bounds more like a gradual sinking for now as it slowly takes in water. ;)

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At least we now have sale gimmicks coming back, like snazzy car included with the house, ala 2008. An 'original' idea apparently.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2311253/1-9million-luxury-bedroom-home-called-The-Bentley-free-85-000-car-name.html

selling a property is a competitive business

Listing: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-38462383.html?premiumA=true

2004 particulars: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=38442116&sale=17629832&country=england

Only a smaller percentage affected in 2008 were a hapless FTB who'd just bought a few years previously and where all the media's attention was on their plight. Majority of them upsizers in that 'just wanted a home', 'seduced by media', 'banks', 'what their parents told them about prices always doubling', 'couldn't have expected to realise prices could fall' ect saved by the 0.5% QE, FLS, Help-To-Buy reinflation hooray.

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If it's down 10% this year the house is 10% cheaper for them but if it's down 10% next year and the price hasn't gone up when they cash in they lose 10%?

Really now, you of all people know how it works. Sterling is shorted so the rich cash in. Then they go long so they cash in.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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