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The Knimbies who say No

B B A Figs March 2013

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Spreadsheet/commentary here:

http://www.bba.org.uk/statistics/article/march-2013-figures-for-the-main-high-street-banks/high-street-banking/

March 2013 figures for the main high street banks

24/04/2013

Personal deposits rose by 5.8% over the year to March.

Net mortgage borrowing from the banks fell by 0.1% over the year to March.

BBA statistics director, David Dooks said:

“The Funding for Lending Scheme has made the mortgage marketmore competitive – allowing smaller institutions to offer attractiverates. But nevertheless the main high street banks still provide60% of new mortgage borrowing.

“Mortgage approvals edged up back to levels of a year ago and theprospect of more first time buyers entering the market during 2013is likely to help mortgage chains in due course. However,economic uncertainty and subdued confidence continues todetermine borrowing behaviour, with households and businessesreducing borrowing and building up deposits where possible.”

Seems the start of deleveraging in the housing market has begun in earnest, the latest figures seem to confirm a y-o-y drop in net mortgage lending of 0.1% (the first ever non-positive figure), the red line has broken below zero:

stats240413.jpg

And this on the day FLS is extended, a scheme whose prime directive was to stop this happening.

Mortgages:

----------------

The March 2013 loans advanced (nsa) figure is the lowest March since March 2000, on a nominal basis.

March 2013: £7,058M

March 2001: £7,647

March 2000: £6,502M

March 1999: £4,969M

-------------------------------

Cumulative numbers of approvals for house purchase for the first three months of the year are running at numbers last seen in the first three months of 2009:

Jan-Mar incl. approvals for house purchase (nsa):

2013: 79,461

2009: 76,812

----------------------------

Remortgage approvals are at levels last seen in 1998:

Jan-Mar incl. approvals for remortgage (nsa):

2013: 48,357

2012: 60,318 (3rd lowest)

1998: 45,709 (lowest)

Personal loans

---------------------

Loans advanced is showing some stability, and total outstanding balances are broadly stable at £34Bn. Monthly advanced loan totals have been in the £1-£1.5Bn range since early 2009, and I'd suggest the outstanding balance figure will settle around the current level, the thinking is as follows: Average. loan term 4 years, average monthly loan advance = £1.25Bn. Total loans advanced over period = 48* £1.25 = £60Bn. Average outstanding balance ~60% of loan total = £36Bn. Rough as a dog, but hopefully grounded in some common sense.

Perviously I've suggested that loan balances c(w)ould go lower but the last three months figures have stopped the rot in my view, for the timebeing at least. I predict there will be stories talking about the rebound in personal loan lending if the y-o-y figs stabilise to 0%

Credit cards

-----------------

Balances broadly stable at £36Bn for the first three month, seems like people are maxed out for the timebeing but Carney may have other ideas.

Edited by cheeznbreed

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What do you mean about "the start of deleveraging in the housing market has begun"?

Less mortgage lending? Less mortgage debt? Higher saving deposits? Sorry for being a numpty.

I meant the drop in 'net changes in amounts outstanding, column 'C', "Table 5 Mortgages nsa" or "Table 5 Mortgages sa" of the spreadsheet, on a total y-o-y basis. I'm not sure it's the correct phrase to use so apologies for the confusion! The non-seasonally-adjusted figures, £millions:

Jan 2012: 501

Feb 2012: -253

Mar 2012: 848

Apr 2012: -543

May 2012: 226

Jun 2012: 342

Jul 2012: 236

Aug 2012: 285

Sep 2012: 322

Oct 2012: 127

Nov 2012: 608

Dec 2012: -70

Jan 2013: -57

Feb 2013: -982

Mar 2013: -1,301

April 2012-March 2013 inclusive total nsa: - £807M

same total on a seasonally-adjusted basis yields a decline of: -£447M

I displayed the first few months of 2012 above for a reason. Of the 187 monthly figures on the nsa record, stretching back to Sept 1997, only six have produced a negative figure. The last four months in a row, April 2012 and Feb 2012.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, there are also only six negative figures, and these are all within the last year.

Why does this matter?

I know you'd express some incredulity if I were to say something about the fundamental weakness of the housing market from your local situation. And these figures are not the 'whole of market', although a large chunk of it. But at the same time, the state of the housing market becomes worse and worse, by the measures VIs use to assess its health, yet the commentary rarely mentions this. These figures are apalling, as far as housing bulls are concerned. Remember the regular puff pieces about how FLS was having a great effect on borrowing? Absolute rubbish, the figures since its introduction are the worst on record.

Seems like it's all out war on reluctant potential borrowers in order to keep bank's business model afloat.

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Was waiting for your insight into these figures - much appreciated.

Cheers, although I'm sure 'insight' is overegging it, just messing with spreadsheets. FreeTrader I ain't.

It's been said a zillion times before, but the shift to negative net lending, if sustained, could prove an interesting development. I guess that red line is what is driving Carney/Osborne.

Meanwhile, savings rates will like go you-know-where..

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What do you mean about "the start of deleveraging in the housing market has begun"?

Less mortgage lending? Less mortgage debt? Higher saving deposits? Sorry for being a numpty.

Remember these figures are the average for the BBA group (Barclays, HSBC Bank, Lloyds Banking Group, Royal Bank of

Scotland Group, Santander UK and Virgin Money [ex NR].) and there are performances very differnt to the average going on.

Looking at the BoE FLS data there is a big spread in bank behaviour, with Barclays (using FLS) or HSBC (not using FLS) increasing lending and Santander reducing it at a considerable pace and Lloyds at a moderate pace. 2 of the smaller players of the 6 are increasing the most rapidly but the 2 biggest by (former) market share are reducing lending.

Gross mortgage borrowing is roughly stable but capital repayments are up hence net borrowing going slightly negative. If IRs go up then this will reverse if people are on repayment mortgages and are over paying at the moment.

MEWing (other secured) down 34% YoY

BBA:

no doubt reflecting lower levels of equity available and reluctance to take on extra borrowing.

Business lending data is dire but that is again showing very different behaviours by sector:

Restaurants Hotel and Property development all still shrinking but manufacturing stabilising.

Edited by koala_bear

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I know you'd express some incredulity if I were to say something about the fundamental weakness of the housing market from your local situation. And these figures are not the 'whole of market', although a large chunk of it. But at the same time, the state of the housing market becomes worse and worse, by the measures VIs use to assess its health, yet the commentary rarely mentions this. These figures are apalling, as far as housing bulls are concerned. Remember the regular puff pieces about how FLS was having a great effect on borrowing? Absolute rubbish, the figures since its introduction are the worst on record.

Seems like it's all out war on reluctant potential borrowers in order to keep bank's business model afloat.

With the CML data it is possible to look at deposits and LTV but not with the BBA data.

I think we need to have a good look and try to put together a current market share and behavioural trend for the 10-12 biggest mortgage lenders as I suspect therare some interesting things going on (LLoyds group still taking the hit on HBoS and Sant holed just above the water lineand heading for calmer waters - is it having to recognise losses too?)

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I meant the drop in 'net changes in amounts outstanding, column 'C', "Table 5 Mortgages nsa" or "Table 5 Mortgages sa" of the spreadsheet, on a total y-o-y basis. I'm not sure it's the correct phrase to use so apologies for the confusion! The non-seasonally-adjusted figures, £millions:

Jan 2012: 501

Feb 2012: -253

Mar 2012: 848

Apr 2012: -543

May 2012: 226

Jun 2012: 342

Jul 2012: 236

Aug 2012: 285

Sep 2012: 322

Oct 2012: 127

Nov 2012: 608

Dec 2012: -70

Jan 2013: -57

Feb 2013: -982

Mar 2013: -1,301

April 2012-March 2013 inclusive total nsa: - £807M

same total on a seasonally-adjusted basis yields a decline of: -£447M

I displayed the first few months of 2012 above for a reason. Of the 187 monthly figures on the nsa record, stretching back to Sept 1997, only six have produced a negative figure. The last four months in a row, April 2012 and Feb 2012.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, there are also only six negative figures, and these are all within the last year.

Why does this matter?

I know you'd express some incredulity if I were to say something about the fundamental weakness of the housing market from your local situation. And these figures are not the 'whole of market', although a large chunk of it. But at the same time, the state of the housing market becomes worse and worse, by the measures VIs use to assess its health, yet the commentary rarely mentions this. These figures are apalling, as far as housing bulls are concerned. Remember the regular puff pieces about how FLS was having a great effect on borrowing? Absolute rubbish, the figures since its introduction are the worst on record.

Seems like it's all out war on reluctant potential borrowers in order to keep bank's business model afloat.

Thanks for explaining that.

FYI, I have just this moment walked out of one of the sensible asking pricing EAs and am typing this from the nearby library. The manager of the branch is amazed that most of his stock is being bought. Properties that have been on for 3 or 4 years are selling and last week, for the first time in 3 years, they had 2 couples competing over a house with the house going for full asking price.

The manager is at a loss to explain this but, to me, the answer is simple. Two or three of the other firms have just gone, IMPO, parabolic with their valuations so the properties in this particlar branch now look very realistic.

Christ - hate to bring his name into it but I need some help :) - I now have a dilemma where I can see the information you are so superbly providing/explaining and it is at a complete 180 degrees to what is happening to my area locally. My landlord wants me to commit to a new 6 month tennancy agrement - so that she can rmeotgage and buy another BTL - and I am looking around at HPI madness all around me. Sorry to be ranting - but I am very aware of living within a local housing bubble within a wider national national bubble.

I would really love to know where house buying was drying up. I really would.

Thanks for te figures and for explaining the facts behind them.

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It makes sense that total mortgage lending would fall while prices are still rising - fewer people can afford the higher prices.

It's exactly what I'd expect to see as the market hits a peak.

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It makes sense that total mortgage lending would fall while prices are still rising - fewer people can afford the higher prices.

It's exactly what I'd expect to see as the market hits a peak.

Good point.

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Thanks for explaining that.

FYI, I have just this moment walked out of one of the sensible asking pricing EAs and am typing this from the nearby library. The manager of the branch is amazed that most of his stock is being bought. Properties that have been on for 3 or 4 years are selling and last week, for the first time in 3 years, they had 2 couples competing over a house with the house going for full asking price.

The manager is at a loss to explain this but, to me, the answer is simple. Two or three of the other firms have just gone, IMPO, parabolic with their valuations so the properties in this particlar branch now look very realistic.

Christ - hate to bring his name into it but I need some help :) - I now have a dilemma where I can see the information you are so superbly providing/explaining and it is at a complete 180 degrees to what is happening to my area locally. My landlord wants me to commit to a new 6 month tennancy agrement - so that she can rmeotgage and buy another BTL - and I am looking around at HPI madness all around me. Sorry to be ranting - but I am very aware of living within a local housing bubble within a wider national national bubble.

I would really love to know where house buying was drying up. I really would.

Thanks for te figures and for explaining the facts behind them.

No problem, I agree with you that trying to pick the bones out of the national picture is not particularly useful for an individual town, as your situation demonstrates.

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  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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