Waiting In Vain?

[Cubes]

Valid observations, or just more VI spin?

http://www.findaproperty.co.uk/story.aspx?storyid=8354

Edited November 12, 2005 by Cubes

[JBeau]

Some bloke from Assoc of Estate Agents ( not too sure) on ITV news this morning clearly said that many would be buyers are waiting in the wings, but that sellers will not accept that prices should be lowered to clinch deals. My observation was that everybody except those stubborn sellers know the market is tipping.

[gruffydd]

This can't be spin as the story is based on a legitimate survey.

Some very valid points are made. When will people realise that a crash isn't going to happen and that they should just go ahead and get whatever house they want.

Everyone's doing self-cert, interest-only mortgages, etc., these days, so you can get a mortgage for whatever amount you need.

You'll easily be able to keep up the mortgage repayments as interest rates are really low and there's full employment, so everyone's got the equivalent of a job for life these days. Interest rates are heading down as well.

[Sledgehead]

This can't be spin as the story is based on a legitimate survey.

Oh dear , oh dear , oh dear! I almost feel as though I should give you a chance to delete this and save yourself the embarrassment before I crush your poor gullible drivel ....

but that just wouldn't be me!

Let's break it down for you gruff. Here's the "legitimate survey":

One in five wannabe homeowners have been waiting for house prices to come tumbling down before they buy but so far, at least, their gamble hasn't paid off, according to research from Alliance & Leicester.

In fact, the company [Alliance & Leicester] believes that would-be homeowners who hold off in protest at overpriced properties are actually doing themselves more harm than good, financially speaking

Red is the survey, green is just "belief". With me so far?

Red shows that people who bought earlier during the bull run paid less than those who bought later. Wella-woopee-doo : forgive me if I don't find myself amazed by this.

But here is a serious question: why do the survey at all? Why not just look at the Nationwide or Halifax index? Surely one could deduce from that alone that folks who bought five years ago paid less than those who bought a year ago.

So why the survey, hmmm? Just read the red again. All it really says is "houses" have gone up", but by doing the survey they are able to convey the idea "you are missing out by waiting." In other words this is NOTHING BUT SPIN!

Now let's deal with the green. A mortgage lender is telling us to do business with them.

Tell me gruff, how stupid do you now feel?

Edited November 12, 2005 by Sledgehead

[theChuz]

Oh dear , oh dear , oh dear! I almost feel as though I should give you a chance to delete this and save yourself the embarrassment before I crush your poor gullible drivel ....

but that just wouldn't be me!

Let's break it down for you gruff. Here's the "legitimate survey":

One in five wannabe homeowners have been waiting for house prices to come tumbling down before they buy but so far, at least, their gamble hasn't paid off, according to research from Alliance & Leicester.

In fact, the company [Alliance & Leicester] believes that would-be homeowners who hold off in protest at overpriced properties are actually doing themselves more harm than good, financially speaking

Red is the survey, green is just "belief". With me so far?

Red shows that people who bought earlier during the bull run paid less than those who bought later. Wella-woopee-doo : forgive me if I don't find myself amazed by this.

But here is a serious question: why do the survey at all? Why not just look at the Nationwide or Halifax index? Surely one could deduce from that alone that folks who bought five years ago paid less than those who bought a year ago.

So why the survey, hmmm? Just read the red again. All it really says is "houses" have gone up", but by doing the survey they are able to convey the idea "you are missing out by waiting." In other words this is NOTHING BUT SPIN!

Now let's deal with the green. A mortgage lender is telling us to do business with them.

Tell me gruff, how stupid do you now feel?

Knowing gruffs take on houses i read his post as pure sarcasm

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

I thought gruffydd was being ironic.

[theChuz]

Odd really because the way that sky news tells the story isnt quite the same. Check it out its in the blog

Around 78% of people currently think property is overpriced, 15% of them saying they are delaying making a purchase in the hope that prices will come down.

Nearly three-quarters of people who are still waiting say they are prepared to put off buying for more than a year in the hope that prices will fall, with a third of these claiming they would wait for more than five years.

Stephen Leonard, director of mortgages at Alliance & Leicester, said: "The research highlights that some homebuyers are playing the waiting game to see if house prices will fall."

So lets get this right 75% of pFTB'rs (because they are the people who are still waiting i.e. are not in the process of buying) are prepared to wait over a year i.e 1 - 5 years for prices to fall, and 30% of that 75% will wait even longer than 5 years.

So the market has to function with 75% less FTB'rs than in the past for 1 - 5 years?

People who postponed buying a house for five years faced an even bigger jump when they eventually decided to get on to the property ladder.

The average cost of a home in those cases rose by 87% during the period, to average £189,852.

Yea no sh*t, we have just witnessed the biggest property boom the UK has ever seen in history in the past 5 years. THAT is the whole point, prices have risen 87% in 5 years and now normal people cannot afford to buy the them.

78% of people surveyed freely admit that houses are overpriced, so why the urgency to but one knowing full well that they are likely to go into neg eq and be stuck in that 'starter home' for the medium to long term.

That is providing they can keep thier over priced property when interest rates rise.

EDITED:

Lazy gits

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13461118,00.html

Edited November 12, 2005 by theChuz

[Sledgehead]

I thought gruffydd was being ironic.

Oh f""" it : look gruff & Charlie & everyone else, if you wanna be ironic you are gonna have to use emoticons. I realise the subtlety is watered down, but c'mon: look at it from the readers perspective in the light of the vault face from guys like THE MONKEY. Bears have been turning bull so what do you expect?

How are we really to know?

[theChuz]

Oh f""" it : look gruff & Charlie & everyone else, if you wanna be ironic you are gonna have to use emoticons. I realise the subtlety is watered down, but c'mon: look at it from the readers perspective in the light of the vault face from guys like THE MONKEY. Bears have been turning bull so what do you expect?

How are we really to know?

yea you have a point, i was going to say something to that effect in my post and say its a good job you did question it (because other readers might get the wrong idea), your right again sarcasm /irony doesn't travel well on the net hence emotioncons.

I completly agree with ya sledge just couldn't be a*sed to say it.

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

Oh f""" it : look gruff & Charlie & everyone else, if you wanna be ironic you are gonna have to use emoticons. I realise the subtlety is watered down, but c'mon: look at it from the readers perspective in the light of the vault face from guys like THE MONKEY. Bears have been turning bull so what do you expect?

How are we really to know?

Your right sledge, great ammo for LL.

[gruffydd]

Yup, forgot the emoticons - :angry:

(I was being sarcastic)

[Sledgehead]

(I was being sarcastic)

If you want me I'll be here:

( has the added advantage of being very "affordable" )

Edited November 12, 2005 by Sledgehead

[right_freds_dead]

look were already priced out.

were waiting in vain so far. why not see the thing through ?

ive changed my mind. im not buying now.

ive found a cheap rental. im going to see this through.

why buy now ?

it isnt any better than last year and next year wont be any worse.

this is particularly nasty spin. designed to make you break.

i am really suprised. when i fist came to this site i lapped the news up.

this site opened by eyes to mass spin.

they might take you for your savings, but they wont get me.

3 more years renting. if no change then i am going to look at living elsewhere as this country will be dead in the stagnant water anyway. there would be nothing here to stay for.

[firebug]

look were already priced out.

were waiting in vain so far. why not see the thing through ?

ive changed my mind. im not buying now.

ive found a cheap rental. im going to see this through.

why buy now ?

it isnt any better than last year and next year wont be any worse.

this is particularly nasty spin. designed to make you break.

i am really suprised. when i fist came to this site i lapped the news up.

this site opened by eyes to mass spin.

they might take you for your savings, but they wont get me.

3 more years renting. if no change then i am going to look at living elsewhere as this country will be dead in the stagnant water anyway. there would be nothing here to stay for.

Have I missed something here? I thought you had decided to buy due to your circumstances, if you've since changed your mind I am glad to hear it! I agree with you totally, there is no way they are getting my hard earned cash either, well at least not until prices have dropped by a minimum of 30% even then I will still have to think about it, though I would probably seriously consider buying with that kind of drop.

[dog]

The art of spin is to cherry pick information in order to distort the picture.

one in ten said that they had seen a considerable rise in the value of their home despite having bought at what they felt was the top of the market

What happened to the other 9?

[oracle]

the "survey" is from a VI,so they are bound to want to slant it in favour of purchase!!!

........to be honest it's the last line of defence,the...oh well the crash ain't happened,but the soft landing is very nice and squelchy line.

....dear oh dear......look at the bigger picture folks,there are lay-offs announced virtually every day,and so much for tesco taking on 2000 more folks,they are all on £4.50 per hour.

........this is a game of chicken,and it all hinges on who will crack first.

........I'm not buying until we get back to norm.......how's your nerve holding?

[Guest The_Oldie]

ITN had this little snippet in their "News in Brief" last night.

It went something like.........."An opinion poll has revealed that people who put off buying property in the hope that prices will fall, end up paying more"............ That was it, no explanation whatsoever.

[Guest pioneer31]

These ridiculous stories are beginning to bore me. House price crash/slump/decline - call it what you will is GOING to happen.

Bears who turn to bull are displaying the (all-to-common thesedays) impatience. We didn't get to these crazy levels overnight, so why should it be demolished overnight? (even if it would be better for all of us if it did)

Edited November 13, 2005 by pioneer31

[88Crash]

These ridiculous stories are beginning to bore me. House price crash/slump/decline - call it what you will is GOING to happen.

Bears who turn to bull are displaying the (all-to-common thesedays) impatience. We didn't get to these crazy levels overnight, so why should it be demolished overnight? (even if it would be better for all of us if it did)

I'd add to this a couple of anecdotals

A few of the potential younger buyers I know (including my daughter) are not playing some fianancial game, waiting for the optimun time to buy

They simply cannot afford it.

Self Certs etc, are a bit harder to get than a couple of years back and regardless, there are still a great number of people that are put off by the '6 years in prison for fraud' scaremongering

Hence, all this A&L VI spin may make them feel worse (because house prices will still boom!!!!)

But thats all, they can't rush out and buy - end of story

As to the HPC it doesn't happen overnight, but I know a few people that have been MEWing etc, and they are running into serious difficulties, including the normal cycle of divorce, redundancies

This will create more forced sales, but this doesn't happen overnight

[war]

Spin, spin, all the way.

Look at those sentences:

19 per cent said they had watched and waited as the property they had their heart set on rose in value by over £50,000......

What about 81%? did they rise in value or fall? No mention.

And again:

One in ten said that they had seen a considerable rise in the value of their home despite having bought at what they felt was the top of the market.

Contrasting data(?)!!

And what about the 90% : Did the prices fall or stay the same- not sure, heh?

78 per cent of people agree that properties are currently overpriced.

Exactly. But Alliance and Leicester are taking them for fools.They are obviously saying: Come on, buy our mortgage. Be indebted to us for your life. let us enjoy the fruits of your labour.

[dunroamin]

ive changed my mind. im not buying now.

ive found a cheap rental. im going to see this through.

good work feller.

thought we'd lost yer for a while there