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Jml Bras, Jeans, Nose Trimers, Kitchen Choppers, And Economics

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It took a bit of digging around, but the chap behind JML is also a writer in economics.

In the book he argues that the key to creating an internationally competitive economy lies in devaluing the pound, to reduce the exchange rate by 25 per cent of its current value.

23rd Nov 2013

http://www.westendextra.com/news/2012/nov/xtra-diary-devaluation-yes-austerity-no

Looks like he is getting his wish?

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This tired old myth.

Devalue the pound and the EUR, USD or Yen price of our goods will not be changed at all.

It's a bail out for GBP debtors, paid for by GBP savers, not dissimilar to the Cyprus deposit grab. That's all.

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but, but, I thought we were kings of the "knowledge economy"...ie, we produce things other people cant do for themselves...thus, we have little or no competition.

diving the value of our means of exchange would have the same as Porsche reducing their prices....nothing at all...demand is set by people really wanting them....the price?....If you have to ask, you cant afford it.

No, the problem is that we dont export much from the "knowledge economy"....people in China have the same brains as we do..

They are making the same things as we can...but because they had a cheap labour force ( one of the two expensive items of running a business...the other is PROPERTY funnily enough), they can make their own stuff cheaply...indeed, so cheaply that our own firms move over there to take advantage.....

Of course, what will happen is that the locals will demand more wages, and soon enough prices will rise. balance is restored.

The issue then, is why arent firms moving back to the West?...of course, Banking has put paid to competitiveness with the mass financialisation of daily lives......we have become zombies....unable to kill the dead for fear of dying.

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.....but aren't they all wanting to devalue own currencies.....it is only because we have the race to the bottom that we can devalue our own to such a great extent....and we are not even in the top of the league for exporting.

How can you both devalue the pound but also increase wages/spending power? ;)

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Hasn't devaluation been tried in the UK many times before and look where the UK is now. They talk as if devaluation is a magic fertilizer for new industries - devalue and lo and behold all of a sudden new industries are supposed to spring up just like that but it's never happened before and instead the UK just declines a bit more, gets poorer and ever more reliant on debt.

At best it has a temporary marginal effect on some existing UK industries.

Edited by billybong

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The situation will be resolved in one of five ways

1) long term austerity , drops in real living standards for a couple of decades which will force millions onto dole until innovative and efficient companies emerge to produce real growth

2) default , reset loss of confidence , collapse in activity but eventually new restart as the dust settles

3) inflation which wil zombify the economy for a long time until people realise 2) has actually occurred by stealth

4) communism will solve all our current problems but replace them with much worse ( see Germany 1933-45) or Russia (1924-1991)

5) war, which may be a touch more dangerous than in the past given the technology .

I'm presuming that the sane choices are 1) 2) 3). 2) and 3) involve savers bailing out borrowers , 1) involves a generation paying off the debts of its ancestors .

You pays your money ( or not) and takes your choice .

No pain free solution , no solution without some injustice to innocents . This is why we need a Thatcher, Churchill, or Atlee not a Cameron or Miliband .

Innocent people will get hurt if you try and fix this thing, more innocent people will be hurt if you don't , the problem is you will be hated if you do the right thing .

An even bigger dilemma will face an american president soon when they have to choose between a lunatic state acquiring long range nukes or blowing that state out if the sky with the resultant genocide.

Bit of three pipe problem that one Watson

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Hasn't devaluation been tried in the UK many times before and look where the UK is now. They talk as if devaluation is a magic fertilizer for new industries - devalue and lo and behold all of a sudden new industries are supposed to spring up just like that but it's never happened before and instead the UK just declines a bit more, gets poorer and ever more reliant on debt.

At best it has a temporary marginal effect on some existing UK industries.

Yes.

We devalued the pound a couple of years ago, result? Balance of trade got worse, not better.

The idea that devaluing the currency will help exports is every bit as mad as the idea that house price increases cause economic growth, and just as contrary to the evidence.

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Yes.

We devalued the pound a couple of years ago, result? Balance of trade got worse, not better.

The idea that devaluing the currency will help exports is every bit as mad as the idea that house price increases cause economic growth, and just as contrary to the evidence.

Crash the currency and people will shift.......aus$ pays 5% will that cover? ;)

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'Take your book of babbling ill-considered drivel to the checkout now!!'

LMAO :D

btw his tired stock gobsmacking products are also for sale in some supermarkets within Poland. I've never actually seen any make it into anyone's basket or trolley but I guess someone must buy it because they do occasionally stock the lines, particularly at my least favourite hypermarket, Carrefart

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Hasn't devaluation been tried in the UK many times before and look where the UK is now. They talk as if devaluation is a magic fertilizer for new industries - devalue and lo and behold all of a sudden new industries are supposed to spring up just like that but it's never happened before and instead the UK just declines a bit more, gets poorer and ever more reliant on debt.

At best it has a temporary marginal effect on some existing UK industries.

Yes.

That's why Cyprus leaving the euro so they can devalue is just as bad as them staying in it.

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1) long term austerity , drops in real living standards for a couple of decades which will force millions onto dole until innovative and efficient companies emerge to produce real growth

This seems to be the plan at present.

I see two problems with it however; 1) Almost everyone is trying to do the same thing at present- which creates a problem of global demand. 2) There is a basic tension between the goals of innovation, efficiency and full employment, since a primary objective of the first two is to eliminate as many jobs as possible while retaining profitability.

Basically what Capitalism wants is to employ nobody and sell to everyone- which is a bit problematic given that wages are the source of demand.

So if we combine Laissez-faire with high tech and automation we get this self contradictory creature that blunders around unable to understand why it's 'wealth creating' innovations and deregulations fail to deliver the theoretical prosperity as promised and instead deliver a bloated 1% at the top and growing poverty for everyone else.

Capitalism as a mechanism lacks the sophistication to really deal with the fact that it's labour cost's and it's consumer demand are actually the same thing.

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Hmm why doesn't the world agree, that half of the countries have a super strong currency for 5 years, and the other half has a weak currency for 5 years. Then they swap, and trade goes back the other way.... everyone takes it in turn to save, and to spend, to produce and to consume.

Nah, couldn't work.

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but, but, I thought we were kings of the "knowledge economy"...ie, we produce things other people cant do for themselves...thus, we have little or no competition.

diving the value of our means of exchange would have the same as Porsche reducing their prices....nothing at all...demand is set by people really wanting them....the price?....If you have to ask, you cant afford it.

No, the problem is that we dont export much from the "knowledge economy"....people in China have the same brains as we do..

They are making the same things as we can...but because they had a cheap labour force ( one of the two expensive items of running a business...the other is PROPERTY funnily enough), they can make their own stuff cheaply...indeed, so cheaply that our own firms move over there to take advantage.....

Of course, what will happen is that the locals will demand more wages, and soon enough prices will rise. balance is restored.

The issue then, is why arent firms moving back to the West?...of course, Banking has put paid to competitiveness with the mass financialisation of daily lives......we have become zombies....unable to kill the dead for fear of dying.

Vietnam TAT

Beset by rising costs, the labor shortage and policies discouraging low-value industries, China's export manufacturers are setting up production lines in Southeast Asia. But relocation has its disadvantages. An increasing number of China companies are constructing factories overseas, mostly in Vietnam and Indonesia, to take advantage of lower costs and more favorable trade policies there. Although the exact number of factories that have established offshore factories is not available, many enterprises manufacturing household appliances, automobiles, TV sets, footwear, textiles and apparel have made the move in recent years.

The push to relocate does not only come from the pressure to keep costs low and avoid trade sanctions, but also from Beijing itself. The national government is encouraging suppliers to expand their business overseas, particularly those engaged in low-value manufacture, and highly polluting and energy-consuming industries. "China's government has been very clear on this," said Dan Harris, lawyer and writer of the China Law Blog. "It wants to see China moving up from low-end, high-pollution products and it has instituted policy after policy to help bring this about. And slowly but surely it is working. It is definitely much tougher now than it was five years ago to get approval to go into China with a low-end, high-pollution factory. It is also considerably more expensive to have such a factory in China today than it was five years ago. The tax subsidies are gone. Wages are up. Many of these sorts of companies are looking elsewhere."

http://www.chinalawb...12/vietnam.html

You realise that what they are actually doing is refitting these countries with new equipment and workforces that could quickly be turned over to armament supply

Edited by erranta

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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