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Risk Perception - Any Good Articles?

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http://scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2013/01/16/how-do-we-perceive-risk-paul-slovics-landmark-analysis-2/

In a classic review article published in Science in 1987, Slovic summarized various social and cultural factors that lead to inconsistent evaluations of risk in the general public. Slovic emphasizes the essential way in which experts’ and laypeople’s views of risk differ. Experts judge risk in terms of quantitative assessments of morbidity and mortality. Yet most people’s perception of risk is far more complex, involving numerous psychological and cognitive processes. Slovic’s review demonstrates the complexity of the general public’s assessment of risk through its cogent appraisal of decades of research on risk perception theory.

Slovic’s article focuses its attention on one particular type of risk perception research, the “psychometric paradigm.” This paradigm, formulated largely in response to the early work of Chauncey Starr, attempts to quantify perceived risk using psychophysical scaling and multivariate analysis. The psychometric approach thus creates a kind of taxonomy of hazards that can be used to predict people’s responses to new risks.

I'm looking for some information on how people perceive risk. ie if in a high risk environment your perception of risk will probably alter and things which you should see as a risk you don't.

Are there any good psychology papers on this.

ie if you where surrounded by rapists / kidnappers etc... when you then meet a drunk you wouldn't see them as a risk.

Does risk perception cover this or is risk perception just solely focussed on how people perceive risk with large projects like nuclear power plants?

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Not totally related, but have you looked at:

Dorner - The Logic of Failure

Dekker - The field guide to understanding Human Error

and

Sutherland - Irrationality

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Logic-Failure-Recognizing-Avoiding-Situations/dp/0201479486

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Field-Guide-Understanding-Human-Error/dp/0754648265

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Irrationality-Stuart-Sutherland/dp/1905177070

All slightly adjacent to your topic, but cover really quite interesting areas that certainly do overlap in some areas.

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Not totally related, but have you looked at:

Dorner - The Logic of Failure

Dekker - The field guide to understanding Human Error

and

Sutherland - Irrationality

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Logic-Failure-Recognizing-Avoiding-Situations/dp/0201479486

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Field-Guide-Understanding-Human-Error/dp/0754648265

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Irrationality-Stuart-Sutherland/dp/1905177070

All slightly adjacent to your topic, but cover really quite interesting areas that certainly do overlap in some areas.

The 2nd one seems interesting, although I'm looking more for how to avoid complacency with risk, how do you regain a perception of what risk is when you are constantly surrounded by it and work with it.

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I've almost finished Thinking: Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahnemann.

It's not focused on risk, but has eye-opening insight on how we perceive the world and take decisions. Towards the end there's great emphasis on loss aversion.

Can't recommend it enough.

http://en.wikipedia....,_Fast_and_Slow

edit: just to add - it's sympathetically written, and I tend to think that the guy who can write simply about a complex subject has mastered that subject.

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Ther's about a 5 mile section of road that i bike along quite a bit. I'm always conscious of possibly being mowed down from behind at speed (my greatest concern on a bicycle) the reality of that happening is probably very slim, I also wear hi-vis and have lights on.

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The 2nd one seems interesting, although I'm looking more for how to avoid complacency with risk, how do you regain a perception of what risk is when you are constantly surrounded by it and work with it.

All three touch on that - especially the working with it bit. The three go very well together in terms of fleshing out different areas - Irrationality covers off sheer misunderstanding of the stats, Failure is a more general into to complex systems, and Human Error is great for understanding quite how it comes about that people end up circumventing safety measures and 'normalising' risk.

If you combine it with something like Switch - http://www.amazon.com/Switch-Change-Things-When-Hard/dp/0385528752 to get some ideas of how to stimulate more effectively attitudes to safety you might be on to a winner.

Why are you interested? New job bothering you?

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http://scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2013/01/16/how-do-we-perceive-risk-paul-slovics-landmark-analysis-2/

I'm looking for some information on how people perceive risk. ie if in a high risk environment your perception of risk will probably alter and things which you should see as a risk you don't.

Are there any good psychology papers on this.

ie if you where surrounded by rapists / kidnappers etc... when you then meet a drunk you wouldn't see them as a risk.

Does risk perception cover this or is risk perception just solely focussed on how people perceive risk with large projects like nuclear power plants?

I am doing the Institute of Risk Management International Diploma in Risk Management and studied Risk Perception as part of one of my courses. If you PM me I will send you the core text and readings that cover it.

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I am doing the Institute of Risk Management International Diploma in Risk Management and studied Risk Perception as part of one of my courses. If you PM me I will send you the core text and readings that cover it.

Risk management? Sounds exciting.

No seriously.

Is that like spotting risks for health and safety assessments for allotments?

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Risk management? Sounds exciting.

No seriously.

Is that like spotting risks for health and safety assessments for allotments?

I'm a property risk engineer and work with clients analysing fire / explosion / natural catastrophe risks. I visit their sites and carry out visits then produce reports and risk improvements.

The course is pretty dry, but understanding a few fundamentals in Risk Management is pretty useful, particularly when you are relying on other people for your safety and you are down a mine in Siberia or walking around a molten glass furnace in China!

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Why are you interested? New job bothering you?

A relative is in trouble for not filling in risk paperwork because they didnt see it due being surrounded by higher risk and this risk just didnt register because it wasnt seen.

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A relative is in trouble for not filling in risk paperwork because they didnt see it due being surrounded by higher risk and this risk just didnt register because it wasnt seen.

The law is quite straight forward on this: For any task there should be a risk assessment, carried out by more than one person and reviewed regularly.

Risk assesment for any given activity should be the responsibility of more than one person. Does the company in question have a list of activities that it deems worthy of risk assessment?

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http://www.keilcentre.co.uk/Data/Sites/1/Risk.pdf

Workers tend to underestimate the risk

from tasks that they perform frequently

2

.

This bias has been called ‘risk habituation’. It appears to be due to people becoming

accustomed to being exposed to the hazards, therefore underestimating the risk

and becoming complacent about the hazards. This complacency may be due to

the fact that they have performed the operation very often and have never

experienced an accident – a case of familiarity breeding contempt. A number of

practical steps can be taken to reduce the impact of this bias. Risk communication

programmes should make employees aware of this bias in their risk perceptions.

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The law is quite straight forward on this: For any task there should be a risk assessment, carried out by more than one person and reviewed regularly.

Risk assesment for any given activity should be the responsibility of more than one person. Does the company in question have a list of activities that it deems worthy of risk assessment?

That's great news. Could someone point me to the relevant section of the law on this please.

Individual Client risk, ie drug user, alcohol, home office licence, risk of violence etc.... Is that still covered by this legislation.

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That's great news. Could someone point me to the relevant section of the law on this please.

Individual Client risk, ie drug user, alcohol, home office licence, risk of violence etc.... Is that still covered by this legislation.

If it's work then I expect it will be covered by standard health and safety at work legislation. I'll see if I can dig it out, it might take me an hour or two cause I'm browsing and watching the tele.

With regards to risk habituation it's one of the reasons you have multiple layers of protection for any particularly hazardous task.

As an example - say a worker is asked to empty a tank of acid and has been told to wear a face shield then the HSE would still expect the tank to be engineered in such a way that the worker couldn't be sprayed in the face, as there's no guarantee he would wear a face shield.

The company could write it into their procedure that he has to wear one, they'd have to provide one, but they'd still be in trouble if he didn't wear it and got sprayed.

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This is from 'health and safety regulation: a short guide' http://www.hse.gov.uk/pubns/hsc13.pdf

The main requirement on employers (note: not employee) is to carry out a risk assessment. Employers

with five or more employees need to record the significant findings of the risk

assessment.

Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999: require

employers to carry out risk assessments, make arrangements to implement

necessary measures, appoint competent people and arrange for appropriate

information and training.

This is a good article:

http://www.netlawman.co.uk/ia/health-safety-work-management

A summary of the regulations: (for employers):

You must review risk assessments periodically and make modifications if there are any significant changes in working practices or equipment

If safety procedures can ever be improved, appropriate steps should be taken accordingly.

You are expected to take reasonable steps to familiarise yourself with the hazards and risks in your workplace

Work must be organised. A set pattern of rules and regulations usually means more systematic work and less chance of accidents

Training should be given in such a way that hazardous situations can be avoided. For example: Lengthening of working day, removal of taking screening breaks etc for meeting deadlines should be avoided.

You must ensure that the significant hazards are identified, and that the actual working practices are addressed and if need be, changed so as to reduce any risk.

Hope this helps. I should say, I'm by no means an expert but I've worked in the chemical industry for almost 10 years for a company that takes this stuff ultra-seriously so I've had a lot of training regarding what the authorities expect.

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Ther's about a 5 mile section of road that i bike along quite a bit. I'm always conscious of possibly being mowed down from behind at speed (my greatest concern on a bicycle) the reality of that happening is probably very slim, I also wear hi-vis and have lights on.

The open road is indeed very low risk. You're at much more risk where there are junctions, obstructions, distractions, or if you do something too dumb for a driver to anticipate.

(accident statistics consistently show cyclists are at much higher risk on the pavement than on the road).

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I think we all have areas of our life where we're willing to take risks, and others where we're risk-averse.

For example, when out in the mountains I'll take risks I know I shouldn't, and I've very nearly come a cropper a few times. On the other hand a few neighbour-from-hell experiences have left me unduly risk-averse about moving house, and especially buying.

It's less than five years since I worked up my financial courage to start investing in real assets. The first investments were a huge wrench, but since then I've taken on a fairly high financial risk profile. It's a matter of mind: intellectually I don't know anything new, but psychologically I can cope.

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That's great news. Could someone point me to the relevant section of the law on this please.

Individual Client risk, ie drug user, alcohol, home office licence, risk of violence etc.... Is that still covered by this legislation.

Reg 3 - Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999.

Having a risk assessment in writing is not a legal requirement but recommended in the associated Approved Code of Practice from the HSE.

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Reg 3 - Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999.

Having a risk assessment in writing is not a legal requirement but recommended in the associated Approved Code of Practice from the HSE.

Thanks for highlighting that point.

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Thanks for highlighting that point.

If not in writing you need to be able to articulate and demonstrate that;

1. You identified the hazards

2. Assessed the risks of those hazards causing injury / ill health

3. Put in place practicable control measures to control those risks

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If not in writing you need to be able to articulate and demonstrate that;

1. You identified the hazards

2. Assessed the risks of those hazards causing injury / ill health

3. Put in place practicable control measures to control those risks

Probably as easy to write that lot all down

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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