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Britain Is A 'crisis Economy', Says Mark Carney

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10004479/Britain-is-a-crisis-economy-says-Mark-Carney.html

Speaking on the fringes of the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings in Washington, he said: “The US is breaking out of the pack of crisis economies that include the eurozone, the UK and Japan.”

His words came just days after the IMF slashed its forecasts for UK growth this year and next, and urged the Chancellor to scale back his £130bn austerity programme to aid the recovery.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, signalled that the Fund will demand the UK ease off at its annual Article IV update on the economy next month.

Asked whether she agreed with IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard that the Chancellor was “playing with fire” with his economic plans, she said: “We have said that should growth abate then there should be consideration to adjusting by slowing the pace.

“The growth numbers are certainly not particularly good. So, in a sense, this is a continuation of the position. What has changed is clearly the quality of the numbers.”

..

Asked specifically about his opinion on the UK reovery, Mr Carney said he would reserve his opinion until he starts at the Bank in July. However, he added that “the flip side [of the UK’s problems] is the tremendous opportunity that is there”.

..

“Can central banks provide sustainable growth? No. They can help with the transition, but they can’t deliver long term growth. That needs to come through true fiscal adjustments and necessary structural reforms… Sustainable growth comes from the private sector.”

Still clinging onto the idea of perpetual growth...

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We've eased more than any other nation, we've devalued more than any other developed economy, we've inflated so much there's been very little in the way of house price correction. What more does this fruit loop want?

If the US is doing better than the Eurozone and us (which I have my doubts over) its because

1) The US has vast natural resources. They have an oil boom, we have an oil bust.

2) The US, despite the best efforts of the federal govt to crowd it out, still has a larger private sector % of GDP

3) The US has more/younger favourable demographics

4) The US is a reserve currency and can debase with less inflationary problems.

5) Their BLS seem even more adept at lying about employment and inflation than our ONS.

None of which Carney can import over here, even if he wanted to.

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We've eased more than any other nation, we've devalued more than any other developed economy, we've inflated so much there's been very little in the way of house price correction. What more does this fruit loop want?

If the US is doing better than the Eurozone and us (which I have my doubts over) its because

1) The US has vast natural resources. They have an oil boom, we have an oil bust.

2) The US, despite the best efforts of the federal govt to crowd it out, still has a larger private sector % of GDP

3) The US has more/younger favourable demographics

4) The US is a reserve currency and can debase with less inflationary problems.

5) Their BLS seem even more adept at lying about employment and inflation than our ONS.

None of which Carney can import over here, even if he wanted to.

You really don't understand the American psyche do you? If you had lived there for almost twenty years as I did you would add to the above list that they tend to help each other more and don't have the benefit culture instilled in them from birth. Generally if you don't work you don't get. If you need to work three jobs then you do. Never short the US, I learned that from Buffet and he's right. Long term they will be last dog standing in this fight. The Chinese? Don't make me laugh.

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You really don't understand the American psyche do you? If you had lived there for almost twenty years as I did you would add to the above list that they tend to help each other more and don't have the benefit culture instilled in them from birth. Generally if you don't work you don't get. If you need to work three jobs then you do. Never short the US, I learned that from Buffet and he's right. Long term they will be last dog standing in this fight. The Chinese? Don't make me laugh.

I dont believe for a minute there is a singular 'american psyche'. They have their vast urban ghettos, inhabitants weaned on a diet of food stamps, housing benefit (section 8) and everything else, just like us.

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Did he have anything to say about the crisis he's leaving behind in Canada? unsure.giflaugh.gif

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/15/canada-economy/

'Really there is a recession right now': Canadians lose faith in economic 'miracle' amid prolonged slowdown

OTTAWA/TORONTO — Factory worker Nelson Claros has little time for talk of the Canadian economic miracle.

The 50-year-old was laid off last year from his job of 22 years at a bus-assembly plant northwest of Toronto, and has since applied for 130 jobs. His best offer: A job at $12 an hour, half his previous wage and not enough to pay his bills.

Companies are closing, there are a lot of layoffs. How can this be a miracle economy?

"Really there is a recession right now. They don't call it a recession, but the companies are closing, there are a lot of layoffs. How can this be a miracle economy?" he asked.

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Canada's recovery from a mild 2008-09 recession was quick and job-filled, and the country added nearly 900,000 jobs to take the jobless rate to 7.2% from 8.7% at the depths of the downturn.

No bank needed a government bailout, the housing market did not collapse and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty repeatedly boasted about how Canada was outperforming its partners in the Group of Seven rich industrialized economies.

But recent growth has consistently fallen short of expectations and a very rough patch late last year turned disappointment into dread. Economists had been betting on a quicker U.S. recovery to boost Canadian exports, as well as a pickup in business spending.

The slowdown could spell trouble for the Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, which is showing signs of mid-term stress and losing ground in opinion polls to the third largest party, the Liberals.

Policy makers predict a brighter second half of 2013, but people like Claros and business leaders are not so sure.

"I don't see any solution for the problem of people who are laid off right now," said Claros, a single father of four, who is living off his severance pay and is waiting for the 31 weeks of unemployment insurance he is eligible for.

Some 54,000 Canadians joined Claros in the ranks of the unemployed in March, the worst monthly job losses in more than four years.

Previous engines of growth – housing and consumer spending – are slowing, and businesses are shying away from investments.

And with the government striving to balance its budget and the Bank of Canada talking of rate hikes rather than cuts, official stimulus programs are off the table, at least for now, leaving resource-rich Canada hitching its economic star to uncertain hopes of a strong energy sector and a U.S. recovery.

Edited by zugzwang

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We've eased more than any other nation, we've devalued more than any other developed economy, we've inflated so much there's been very little in the way of house price correction. What more does this fruit loop want?

If the US is doing better than the Eurozone and us (which I have my doubts over) its because

1) The US has vast natural resources. They have an oil boom, we have an oil bust.

2) The US, despite the best efforts of the federal govt to crowd it out, still has a larger private sector % of GDP

3) The US has more/younger favourable demographics

4) The US is a reserve currency and can debase with less inflationary problems.

5) Their BLS seem even more adept at lying about employment and inflation than our ONS.

None of which Carney can import over here, even if he wanted to.

The difference between the US and the Europe is that the US has written down a fair amount of domestic debt and allowed a correction in land/property prices. They're still in the mire, just to a lesser a degree.

Good point about the weasel words from Carney and Lagarde though i.e. it is impossible to privately rebuild our savings and deleverage whilst the government try to re-inflate and take on debt on our behalf at the same time (there is no austerity, re-adjustment of prices, and precious little write down of debt in the UK), which of course has only caused stagnation.

Edited by GradualCringe

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However, he added that “the flip side [of the UK’s problems] is the tremendous opportunity that is there”.

Yes indeed.

Reportedly about £800,000 annual pay and perks - and for what? Insights such as Britain is a 'crisis Economy' :rolleyes:

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don't have the benefit culture instilled in them from birth. Generally if you don't work you don't get. If you need to work three jobs then you do.

Record numbers of Americans on food stamps, and the number rising the whole time? A mortgage market dominated by the State? A country living so far above income that it is a joke? A country running $1.5 trillion deficits?

lol.

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Record numbers of Americans on food stamps, and the number rising the whole time? A mortgage market dominated by the State? A country living so far above income that it is a joke? A country running $1.5 trillion deficits?

lol.

... and the highest per capita healthcare costs in the world by nearly a 40% margin.

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Yes indeed.

Reportedly about £800,000 annual pay and perks - and for what? Insights such as Britain is a 'crisis Economy' :rolleyes:

He's a clever man and is bound to fix the economy with his great wisdom and insights.

He's the breath of fresh air we need right now - when you're in a crisis caused by a housing bubble, who better to bring in to sort things out than someone who has been so effective in Canada, leaving their economy in tip-top condition through his sheer brilliance in monetary policy.

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... and the highest per capita healthcare costs in the world by nearly a 40% margin.

I think some of that is due to the monopolies in the system, but given how unhealthy so many american are, the yank system will probably always be the most expensive, whatever they do.

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dont forget what "crisis" means to an economist..

a. A crucial or decisive point or situation; a turning point.b. An unstable condition, as in political, social, or economic affairs, involving an impending abrupt or decisive change.

It means a time of change.

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You really don't understand the American psyche do you? If you had lived there for almost twenty years as I did you would add to the above list that they tend to help each other more and don't have the benefit culture instilled in them from birth. Generally if you don't work you don't get. If you need to work three jobs then you do. Never short the US, I learned that from Buffet and he's right. Long term they will be last dog standing in this fight. The Chinese? Don't make me laugh.

So they work till they drop and thousands of US Manufacturers still outsourced millions of US jobs and impoverished Millions for their exemplary dedication to work and company

- no OBLIGATIONS for the Directors/Management to bother with!

(Think Cadbury job outsourcing and company asset stripping by Kraft in UK - never made a business loss in roughly 200 years)

Its time ordinary people took back their countries from mass, exploitationary Big Business overlords

Edited by erranta

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So they work till they drop and thousands of US Manufacturers still outsourced millions of US jobs and impoverished Millions for their exemplary dedication to work and company

- no OBLIGATIONS for the Directors/Management to bother with!

(Think Cadbury job outsourcing and company asset stripping by Kraft in UK - never made a business loss in roughly 200 years)

Its time ordinary people took back their countries from mass, exploitationary Big Business overlords

what he mean is that the UK is an economy in crisis and we havent passed through it yet.

Evidenced by the continued bailouts of the housing market...we have been preserving the status quo.

The Crisis means a change must occur....we havent had it yet....so expect it soon.

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(...) (Americans) don't have the benefit culture instilled in them from birth. Generally if you don't work you don't get. If you need to work three jobs then you do. Never short the US, I learned that from Buffet and he's right. Long term they will be last dog standing in this fight. The Chinese? Don't make me laugh.

+ 1

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting

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+ 1

.

At least they have the option of shooting their old boss if they feel exploited

- and many do :P

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The crisis in Carnage terms is that property prices are not increasing, property price increases lead to increases in imputed rent and therefore GDP. Add in lots of QE and the creation of massive amounts of debt with more government spending and Carnage will be judged a success ... don't worry about inflation or overall debt levels all that matters is GDP growth.

Thats exactly right.

What he is saying is that a decision has to be made otherwise, it will be made for us...out of control.

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We've eased more than any other nation, we've devalued more than any other developed economy, we've inflated so much there's been very little in the way of house price correction. What more does this fruit loop want?

If the US is doing better than the Eurozone and us (which I have my doubts over) its because

1) The US has vast natural resources. They have an oil boom, we have an oil bust.

2) The US, despite the best efforts of the federal govt to crowd it out, still has a larger private sector % of GDP

3) The US has more/younger favourable demographics

4) The US is a reserve currency and can debase with less inflationary problems.

5) Their BLS seem even more adept at lying about employment and inflation than our ONS.

None of which Carney can import over here, even if he wanted to.

They don't have gidiot.

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If you need to work three jobs then you do.

That's nothing- the slaves in the deep south used to work far harder and for no pay- the yanks have long way to go before they hit bottom- or wake up to the fact that the 1% have screwed them royally.

Making a virtue of your own exploitation is not evidence of strong character- it is the last refuge of the defeated.

The phrase "Uncle Tom" has also become an epithet for a person who is slavish and excessively subservient to perceived authority figures,

Ignore Uncle Tom and listen instead to this man:

Thomas Jefferson:

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies . . . If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] . . . will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered . . . The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." -- Thomas Jefferson -- The Debate Over The Recharter Of The Bank Bill, (1809)

He got it right.

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You really don't understand the American psyche do you? If you had lived there for almost twenty years as I did you would add to the above list that they tend to help each other more and don't have the benefit culture instilled in them from birth. Generally if you don't work you don't get. If you need to work three jobs then you do. Never short the US, I learned that from Buffet and he's right. Long term they will be last dog standing in this fight. The Chinese? Don't make me laugh.

Let's all work in the US...yay

50+ hours a week, nine days holiday a year which you're not allowed to take for fear of being branded a socialist and getting the boot...

The American Psyche is fear or outright flag waving stupidity. Idiots with kick me signs stapled to their backs.

Frankly I'm amazed that in the 21st century, people still think and come out with such insular gash.

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Speaking on the fringes of the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings in Washington, he said: “The US is breaking out of the pack of crisis economies that include the eurozone, the UK and Japan.”

It doesn't say much for the role the BoE played in the UK's continuing economic crisis - his future employers.

Edited by billybong

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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