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Casinos Have To Teach About House Prices

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Its obvious that he's got some mathematical ability.

Being able to do basic sums, working with fractions and percentages, and calculating compound interest is something that sadly a whole lot of people simply cannot do.

I'm debt free, 100% debt free, and worked damn hard to be that way.

Often I wonder how it is for folk who get multiple brown envelopes through each week, telling you to pony up what you probably haven't got.

I remember the stress of being behind in my early 20's, but I was single.

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Sorry but he doesn't get it. "The boom in house prices which began in the Eighties" is just the usual knee-jerk demonisation of the Thatcher legacy.

House prices post-Thatcher in the early 90s were actually the cheapest they have ever been relative to earnings. The explosion in prices happened on Gordon Brown's watch thanks to low interest rates combined with bad mortgage regulation.

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Sorry but he doesn't get it. "The boom in house prices which began in the Eighties" is just the usual knee-jerk demonisation of the Thatcher legacy.

House prices post-Thatcher in the early 90s were actually the cheapest they have ever been relative to earnings. The explosion in prices happened on Gordon Brown's watch thanks to low interest rates combined with bad mortgage regulation.

This isn't necessarily aimed at you thecrashingisles... however;

Look at peoples swollen midriffs when you're out next and remind yourself that we're a nation of debt addicted consumer whores, up for the highest bidder.

Why do people always blame politicians for the state we're in?

We elect them.

Just because we can, doesn't mean we should.

Presumably most of the folk on this website are not in the majority of fat fools who create the construct for such whorish behaviour.

Same goes for smoking. You know its bad for you, but people continue to do so.

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Sorry but he doesn't get it. "The boom in house prices which began in the Eighties" is just the usual knee-jerk demonisation of the Thatcher legacy.

House prices post-Thatcher in the early 90s were actually the cheapest they have ever been relative to earnings. The explosion in prices happened on Gordon Brown's watch thanks to low interest rates combined with bad mortgage regulation.

House prices, in London anyway rose from the early 80s to the late 80s then fell right back around 89 to 92 to rise again many times above inflation until recently where they are on a slow gradual decline in real terms (much larger decline in other places ) up until the banks will have to increase interest rates again to stay in business....and people stop using housing as a store of wealth....homes should not be treated as gold has in the recent past. ;)

Historic BofE base rates speak for themselves.

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Yup, that was when we boomers were paying off our mortgages. Now we get 3 or 4% on our savings, c'est la vie.

Surely the smart ones would have saved during double digit IR era and bought on the onset of ZIRP....

or is it not quite as simple as that?! Besides what use is a 3% IR against a £200k mortgage you can't save the 25% deposit for?!

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For most of the 2000's house price inflation was double figures.

Huzzah!

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Surely the smart ones would have saved during double digit IR era and bought on the onset of ZIRP....

or is it not quite as simple as that?! Besides what use is a 3% IR against a £200k mortgage you can't save the 25% deposit for?!

Is the answer in the final sentence of the newspaper article

"Mortgages are like casinos. The house always wins"

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Yup, that was when we boomers were paying off our mortgages. Now we get 3 or 4% on our savings, c'est la vie.

Yeah, the boomers have always had it rough, seems like those guys can never catch a break.

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For first time buyers at least from the below HPC chart it looks as if the NuLabour years have been the most expensive in house price to earnings terms.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-ftb-average-house-price-to-earnings-ratio.php

That also seems to be confirmed with the Nationwide chart for average house prices - adjusted for inflation

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national-inflation.php

Edited by billybong

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Yeah, the boomers have always had it rough, seems like those guys can never catch a break.

You may jest, but many people lost their houses, along with their jobs, when interest rates were in double figures, lenders used to repossess in those days, and rightly so.

I never felt that I owned my house until I'd paid off the mortgage, if my business had failed that would have been it.

Of course, we used to harbour jealous thoughts about our parents' generation who had the fun of fighting a world war :rolleyes:.

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It is possible to fool all of the people all of the time. Provided 1) they're British, and 2) the subject is house prices.

Even after economic collapse and a five year depression they still think and talk about houses as if it were 2008.

Fantasy island. :rolleyes:

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It is possible to fool all of the people all of the time. Provided 1) they're British, and 2) the subject is house prices.

Even after economic collapse and a five year depression they still think and talk about houses as if it were 2008.

Fantasy island. :rolleyes:

If they had brains, they'd be dangerous.

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And actually the biggest boom in prices took place in the early 1970's before Thatcher acceded to the throne.

Just to make it clear:

1951-1964 Tory government: HPI 57% nominal, RPI 56% - no real change in house prices

1964 - 1970 Labour government: HPI 48% nominal, RPI 30% 14% real increase in house prices

1970 - 1974 Tory government HPI 122% nominal, RPI 49% 49% real increase in house prices

1974 - 1979 Labour government HPI 92% nominal, RPI 110%, 9% real FALL in house prices

1979 - 1997 Tory government HPI 206% nominal, RPI 187%, 7% real increase in house prices

1997 - 2010 Labour government HPI 189% nominal, RPI 43%, 101% real increase in house prices

As you can see the biggest boom in history was under the previous Labour government, and prices stayed level in real terms under the 79-97 Tory government. Because of improved prosperity, housing would have been more affordable in 1997 than in 1979.

Prices increased 22% in real terms in 1988, a figure which was equalled in 2002, but both were exceeded by 1972's real HPI of 25%.

So clearly not true that Thatcher invented casino housing, it actually dates back to the 1970s under Heath.

And any boom under Thatcher was inflated away by 1997 anyway.

The 2010 average house value was 2.89x that of 1997, whereas inflation was only 1.42x.

If nominal house prices stay at 2010 levels and inflation stays at 3%, then house prices in real terms will only return to 1997 levels in 2035.

What a legacy for the Liemore government.

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or is it not quite as simple as that?! Besides what use is a 3% IR against a £200k mortgage you can't save the 25% deposit for?!

Well hopefully the government's new Help to Buy scheme should help FTBs with the deposit.

What is really need though to calm house prices in London and the South East is a spate of house building, but the NIMBYs will stop that

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Well hopefully the government's new Help to Buy scheme should help FTBs with the deposit.

What is really need though to calm house prices in London and the South East is a spate of house building, but the NIMBYs will stop that

Lambs to the slaughter.

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Just to make it clear:

1951-1964 Tory government: HPI 57% nominal, RPI 56% - no real change in house prices

1964 - 1970 Labour government: HPI 48% nominal, RPI 30% 14% real increase in house prices

1970 - 1974 Tory government HPI 122% nominal, RPI 49% 49% real increase in house prices

1974 - 1979 Labour government HPI 92% nominal, RPI 110%, 9% real FALL in house prices

1979 - 1997 Tory government HPI 206% nominal, RPI 187%, 7% real increase in house prices

1997 - 2010 Labour government HPI 189% nominal, RPI 43%, 101% real increase in house prices

As you can see the biggest boom in history was under the previous Labour government, and prices stayed level in real terms under the 79-97 Tory government. Because of improved prosperity, housing would have been more affordable in 1997 than in 1979.

Prices increased 22% in real terms in 1988, a figure which was equalled in 2002, but both were exceeded by 1972's real HPI of 25%.

So clearly not true that Thatcher invented casino housing, it actually dates back to the 1970s under Heath.

And any boom under Thatcher was inflated away by 1997 anyway.

The 2010 average house value was 2.89x that of 1997, whereas inflation was only 1.42x.

If nominal house prices stay at 2010 levels and inflation stays at 3%, then house prices in real terms will only return to 1997 levels in 2035.

What a legacy for the Liemore government.

This is good information, but how would the current government be judged using the same figures? HPI and RPI wouldn't be very high over the term (continuing the current trend) and would show a small real fall in house prices, but as far as I'm concerned they're just as culpable as Labour for trying to prop up the ponzi.

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This isn't necessarily aimed at you thecrashingisles... however;

Look at peoples swollen midriffs when you're out next and remind yourself that we're a nation of debt addicted consumer whores, up for the highest bidder.

Why do people always blame politicians for the state we're in?

We elect them.

Just because we can, doesn't mean we should.

Presumably most of the folk on this website are not in the majority of fat fools who create the construct for such whorish behaviour.

Same goes for smoking. You know its bad for you, but people continue to do so.

Think of it another way

If our political leaders stopped Socialist-Capitalist Bankers luring people in by deregulating to such an extent that banks are lending cash they haven't got

- they are basically defrauding everyone to get their hands on the Usury EXPONENTIAL interest take that falsly 'created' price rises create

Dont forget their other BIG CON, it's all underwritten by THE TAXPAYER if it all explodes in their faces

- totally corrupt Britain by the Financials and elites.

The vast majority would be far better off without these skimming, scamming devils in disguise!

Favoured Big Business chains/supermarkets would not be able to expand to such an extent that they suck all excess wealth out of local economies back into the City of London either

Thats what has made this recession far worse

Edited by erranta

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You may jest, but many people lost their houses, along with their jobs, when interest rates were in double figures, lenders used to repossess in those days, and rightly so.

I never felt that I owned my house until I'd paid off the mortgage, if my business had failed that would have been it.

Of course, we used to harbour jealous thoughts about our parents' generation who had the fun of fighting a world war :rolleyes:.

Yes, these are important truths that don't get aired enough. The '70s and early '80s must have been tough times economically. My father lost his job twice in two years and I saw him break down and weep with the pressure of paying the bills. Left a big impression on the wee lad that I was then.

There wasn't much of an option of my Mum going out to earn either - she had married early, with very little vocational or academic skills behind her, then stayed at home once kids came along.

Which is better - low house prices and high interest rates, or vice-versa? Some may say there's little in it. If I received a £500 windfall and wanted to use it towards the mortgage though, I'd take the former scenario every time.

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This is good information, but how would the current government be judged using the same figures? HPI and RPI wouldn't be very high over the term (continuing the current trend) and would show a small real fall in house prices, but as far as I'm concerned they're just as culpable as Labour for trying to prop up the ponzi.

Well I disagree actually. If you inherit a f***ed up economy, then that's clearly less culpable then if you were the one who f***ed it up.

We on this site support the 'crash' solution, with a 40% fall from peak being about right (ok, 50%, but 40% will do), and that's certainly valid, but it's not a solution without consequences.

If prices go from £100k to £200k under Labour, then from £200k down to £100k under the Tories, everyone who bought at £200k is in the s**t. If Labour had never come to power and prices had just stayed at £100k, then nobody needs to lose.

But to be clear, HPC has economic consequences, and there's no way that NOT crashing house prices is as bad as pumping them up in the first place.

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Yes, these are important truths that don't get aired enough. The '70s and early '80s must have been tough times economically. My father lost his job twice in two years and I saw him break down and weep with the pressure of paying the bills. Left a big impression on the wee lad that I was then.

There wasn't much of an option of my Mum going out to earn either - she had married early, with very little vocational or academic skills behind her, then stayed at home once kids came along.

Which is better - low house prices and high interest rates, or vice-versa? Some may say there's little in it. If I received a £500 windfall and wanted to use it towards the mortgage though, I'd take the former scenario every time.

Correct

With interest rates steaming up to 25% - you cant help feeling sorry for Miners/Workers demanding wage rises to match and fighting with the employers/Govt to keep their heads above water.

This was the 'manufactured scenario (creating the problem - problem-reaction-solution) for smashing the voice of the people against uber greedy employers and corrupt Govts implementing undemocratic laws.

Look where we are today

Unions crushed and marching against virtually anything outlawed, less rights than a village idiot had a thousand years ago, gradual crackdown on free speech(thru PC ********) and culling of newspaper freedoms, thousands of new laws ramrodded thru Westminster to lay in wait so they can screw us in the near future privatised police state

'Britain's bosses are crippling their workers with the worst-ever pay rises, official figures revealed yesterday.

The Office for National Statistics said the average worker is getting a pay rise of just one per cent, the lowest pay rise since its records began in 2001.

With the cost of living rising at 2.8 per cent, it means a worker's pay is barely rising while their bills are rising at a rate which is nearly three times higher.

Since the financial crisis began in 2008, the ONS said there have been just three months when wages have risen faster than the consumer prices index measure of inflation.

And the Thatcher propaganda machine got you to cheer yourselves into todays poverty as they crushed the Unions for the uber greedy "Thatcherite" bosses of todays Socialist-Capitalist companies

Edited by erranta

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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