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pyracantha

Scotland, Spring, Delusion Etc

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Our search area, being within the catchment for excellent schooling, has been pretty resilient wrt nominal house prices.

Saw a new-to-market this morning on RM at £x. Over 15 viewings booked already and can't get to see it for days.

Speaking to an EA (not the selling agent) based IFA they are telling me it will go to closing date, will sell for £250k plus a wee sweetener (couple of £k) to cover for furnishings (all tatty) just to get the sale. I believe they are sadly, probably right.

It's worth not much more than the o/o price.

I can't see the fundamentals to account for rising prices, nor could the IFA. The IFA said people seem to think the worst is behind them and things are settling down, hence lots of mentions of "market confidence returning" etc. I despair.

What's everyone else seeing?

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Our search area, being within the catchment for excellent schooling, has been pretty resilient wrt nominal house prices.

Saw a new-to-market this morning on RM at £x. Over 15 viewings booked already and can't get to see it for days.

Speaking to an EA (not the selling agent) based IFA they are telling me it will go to closing date, will sell for £250k plus a wee sweetener (couple of £k) to cover for furnishings (all tatty) just to get the sale. I believe they are sadly, probably right.

It's worth not much more than the o/o price.

I can't see the fundamentals to account for rising prices, nor could the IFA. The IFA said people seem to think the worst is behind them and things are settling down, hence lots of mentions of "market confidence returning" etc. I despair.

What's everyone else seeing?

People are still in risk-off mode I think, with property still being seen as hedge against inflation and school catchment areas seem to be a middle-class nightmare as it might well be cheaper in the long-run to supplement a comprehensive education with tutoring, although the 'who you know' benefit doesn't get included with that option.

Also, education is a business nowadays and selling it is easy, as I recently pointed out to the nigerian security guard doing a £10k law MBA on top of his degree and masters.

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I keep checking daily prices in highlands and there is only one direction for the prices.. Down down and down..

Have seen 30-40K reductions.

Obviously some of the properties were overpriced to begin with but the trend is there for all to see..

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We submitted a bid at valuation this week. The property had 10 offers at closing date and sold for 8% over valuation, taking it well into the 3% Stamp Duty band. Such is the madness of a good schooling area.

Even the one local EA (different to the sale above) who talks sense, doesn't get what's going on and admitted it couldn't last.

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Ayrshire just-off the M77 continues with steady drops for the 3 or 4 bed semi-detached & detatched market (160K-220K). Not seen anything complete in ages. The out-my-leage stuff, 230-275K, are coming down in quite large steps now (20K). I simply don't think anything massively inflated by the bubble stands a chance right now in any town without a train station. And the stuff between 150-220, there are still no buyers at that point (athough that could be to do with being unable to shift what they have and get any equity gain out). I would say it is getting a bit tasty where I watch, and the word cut-throat springs to mind.

Glasgow southside flats (2 beds) seem to be turning over in about 6-8 weeks on the market in the 90K-120K range but no sold prices yet to see whats really happening. That activity is primarily in Shawlands, Battlefield and Mount Florida are more sticky. Certainly the fixed price ones ain't moving so that suggests to me anything above 105 is either getting pulled or completing well below offers over. I believe this triangle area is now pretty much in the affordable bracket for sheeple, prices are circa 2003/2004.

I now find myself in the odd position of being able to do either of these choices, one with mortgage one without, and with "help to sell" kicking off in january I probably need to take long hard look at the situation. One thing I fear is BTL spivs getting into the house market with their new cheap FLS money, I hope they remain distracted by city-centre rabbit hutch flats.

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.... and with "help to sell" kicking off in january I probably need to take long hard look at the situation.

AFAIU HtB doesn't apply in Scotland:

"HtB - Shared equity scheme whereby Government guarantee up to 20% of cost of new build property, interest free for 5 years, repayable on sale. Up to £600,000 on a new build property, comes into effect from 1st April 2013. Not available in Scotland but £266 million earmarked for Scotland if the Scottish Government wants to apply it to a similar scheme."

Taken from:

http://www.mov8realestate.com/blog/item/145-budget-2013-help-to-buy-scheme-what-does-it-mean-for-the-property-market-in-scotland.html#.UXvZ54Ly8mk

I've no idea if the £266M offer is being taken up. Anyone?

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AFAIU HtB doesn't apply in Scotland:

"HtB - Shared equity scheme whereby Government guarantee up to 20% of cost of new build property, interest free for 5 years, repayable on sale. Up to £600,000 on a new build property, comes into effect from 1st April 2013. Not available in Scotland but £266 million earmarked for Scotland if the Scottish Government wants to apply it to a similar scheme."

Taken from:

http://www.mov8reale...ml#.UXvZ54Ly8mk

I've no idea if the £266M offer is being taken up. Anyone?

you just made me very happy

Looks like that is the current equity schema for new builds only, the mortgage guarentee scheme is uk wide when it starts in January.

My link

Edited by hirop

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I bought over winter (my preferred time for house hunting as everything is still on from spring but with less viewers (Edinburgh, 3% stamp duty). I got 20% off the (absurd) home report valuation and ended up paying a little less than my first rejected offer. House had been on for ages.

The bad news though is that over spring, many of the houses I'd considered way over-priced and which had been on the market more than a year have sold. Not sure yet at what prices but compared to the last year or two, there does seem to be more activity. Note that this is 3% stamp duty threshold houses I am referring to. I'm quite relieved that I managed to buy at the price I did. I have little doubt that some of these current buyers are going to face real problems when interest rates go up, but that hardly helps those trying to buy at present. Obviously I now need to make sure I am not one of those statistics.

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I now find myself in the odd position of being able to do either of these choices, one with mortgage one without, and with "help to sell" kicking off in january I probably need to take long hard look at the situation. One thing I fear is BTL spivs getting into the house market with their new cheap FLS money, I hope they remain distracted by city-centre rabbit hutch flats.

Why does everybody make such a big deal about the chancellors 'free kick'?

It's a 5 year interest free loan on part of the deposit. Hardly incentive for 'smart' folk to risk taking on more debt, especially in Scotland.

You still have to stump a 5% deposit, which was the high end of the normal for BTLr's, pre-crash. But this time around you get whacked with the remaining 15%, plus interest!

Terms are not better, they are worse.

Plus with poor interest rates at 20% deposits, big up front fee's, most folk still can't afford.

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Prompted by a report in Edinburgh's Evening News (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=70013&view=findpost&p=909315326) I had a look at the Registers of Scotland website, and it turns out that they have detailed quarterly statistics for the last few years here:

http://www.ros.gov.uk/public/news/quarterly_statistics.html

Kind of interesting, but it's difficult to come to any firm conclusions. They do have archived results going back about 5 years though, so it might be worth seeing how things have changed in that period.

Edited by Scunnered

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Why does everybody make such a big deal about the chancellors 'free kick'?

It's a 5 year interest free loan on part of the deposit. Hardly incentive for 'smart' folk to risk taking on more debt, especially in Scotland.

You still have to stump a 5% deposit, which was the high end of the normal for BTLr's, pre-crash. But this time around you get whacked with the remaining 15%, plus interest!

Terms are not better, they are worse.

Plus with poor interest rates at 20% deposits, big up front fee's, most folk still can't afford.

It's not making a big deal of it. it's acknowledging it's going to happen and it means there is a new card on the table to be assessed. none of us know how it will play out yet. it will probably be like all the other schemes and be as much use as a **** flavoured lollipop, but it might just create a small bounce that is enough to knock us all back 18 months before normal downward service resumes.

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Hi guys, long time reader, 1st time poster...

Prices are at the cliff face in my target area of Fife, still sky high. Prices have been static, or dropped very slightly, on one of two of the properties out of the six or so suitable ones I've been tracking. The thing is, I've been tracking most of them for well over a year & it's so frustrating. One (a 3 bedroom detached cottage which was last decorated in the 1970s) didn't sell at 250k after a long marketing but came back on the listings fairly recently at o/o 270k :-s

Or a full renovation project on another slightly larger one, estimated at 100k building costs, a snip at 135k. A common figure that, actually... I can get a 3 bed semi which needs 30k spent, with no garage, driveway or garden to speak of for that. Or I've the choice of two 2 bedroom flats for the same. If I want a 3 bedroom ready to move in, apparently that's gonna cost me o/o 180k. Then I get on to the larger family homes that would actually be worth living in. I'm looking 210-350k.

Yes, in Fife guys. Not Edinburgh.

Absolutely massive reality check coming soon here. New build 4 bed townhouses can be bought outright for 135k and there's a 4 bed, integral garage with 3 bogs for 150. Much more realistic. Thing is, where I'm based is traditionally much cheaper than Dunfermline town.

I fear for these people if I'm honest, but hey. I've got a decent deposit and very good wages for the area (local mean salary only 21k!).

The country, our currency and our balance sheet, is going down the shitter and most 'homeowners' haven't really noticed. Yet.

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That post didn't read right. ..

The townhouse and detached new builds are in Dunfermline Eastern Expansion - the falls there will devastate thousands. I'm tempted by the 150k one, but settled where I am.

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Anecdotal: Work colleague put his bungalow on the market last week at a fixed price, accepted an offer within 2% of asking yesterday. Paid £105k in 2004, just accepted around (he's being cagey, probably because he knows my opinion of house prices!) £220k..... Booger!

On the plus side, he's an STR. He's seen the writing on the wall!

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Anecdotal: Work colleague put his bungalow on the market last week at a fixed price, accepted an offer within 2% of asking yesterday. Paid £105k in 2004, just accepted around (he's being cagey, probably because he knows my opinion of house prices!) £220k..... Booger!

On the plus side, he's an STR. He's seen the writing on the wall!

Jesus H Christ.

What a position he'll be in if what seems destined to happen actually comes to pass.

I thought I was no bad sitting with a few tens of k. Imagine coming into this with TWOHUNNERANTWETY.

He'll get an absolute mansion, depending on where he's looking right enough.

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i would not want to have so much money hanging around..

Carney is coming soon and it is good not to have 100% cash..

To my knowledge (thanks to property bee) prices are falling in scotland.

Anything above 300K is falling fast (Specially if the people are sadly in need) , and below 300K there are constant decreases by 10-20K..

It is just a matter of timing.

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i would not want to have so much money hanging around..

Carney is coming soon and it is good not to have 100% cash..

To my knowledge (thanks to property bee) prices are falling in scotland.

Anything above 300K is falling fast (Specially if the people are sadly in need) , and below 300K there are constant decreases by 10-20K..

It is just a matter of timing.

He STR'ed because he has seen price drops across the board. Didn't mess around, straight on at a fixed price based on peak prices on his street minus 30%. He's a sneaky fekker however, as peak prices were paid for 2 storey homes, not smaller bungalow types like his. Unless you do your research, then that's not obvious from registry data, ourproperty.co.uk etc.

I doubt he'll diversify much, probably dump the cash into a single account somewhere for 3-4 years.

I would guess he's got maybe £50k outstanding on his mortgage (purely a guess, bad form to ask outright!) as he had a fair deposit from the proceeds of the sale of the council house he bought.

He got the full discount on that house due to his mother being a council tenant all her days. He was registered there as well, he qualified for the discount.

Timing is all!

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Our search area, being within the catchment for excellent schooling, has been pretty resilient wrt nominal house prices.

Saw a new-to-market this morning on RM at £x. Over 15 viewings booked already and can't get to see it for days.

Speaking to an EA (not the selling agent) based IFA they are telling me it will go to closing date, will sell for £250k plus a wee sweetener (couple of £k) to cover for furnishings (all tatty) just to get the sale. I believe they are sadly, probably right.

It's worth not much more than the o/o price.

I can't see the fundamentals to account for rising prices, nor could the IFA. The IFA said people seem to think the worst is behind them and things are settling down, hence lots of mentions of "market confidence returning" etc. I despair.

What's everyone else seeing?

We are after a 'doer upper', we have family that can assist in that dep. so it makes sense for us. We are also very cagey about the market. It has been falling for some time. Hate to admit it but we only got our finances in order a month or so ago and that makes it right in the spring bounce. If I had of had more time we should have sorted this out late last year, I would hate to think I would participate in the the dreaded Ed spring bounce!!! We placed a bid on a house last week, a doer upper. 8 notes of interest ( whatever that means blo0dy weird scottish system :rolleyes: ??), we bid 8 % over HP report, it went for 13% over according to our stealictor.

Unique properties, especially doer uppers and those in desirable school catchment areas still make money (think about it, the most I can get on an instant access ISA is 1.3% or something, the stock market is looking very frothy - I personally have enough exposure there thank you - but someone with the right connections can still turn a property around pending planning and make a tidy sum even in a falling market within a year. If it is bought right and more important than anything when considering a family home, it is i the right catchment area for schools!!). We are looking at £200K- £250Kish. Cannot believe I am going to pay a 1/4 million squids for a school place feck! I hate this country...........

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You can make a tidy sum in a falling market within a year ?

Sorry - but that is just homes under the hammer fantasy. Imo.

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You can make a tidy sum in a falling market within a year ?

Sorry - but that is just homes under the hammer fantasy. Imo.

Don't get me wrong, I am in your camp and have been even before I joined. It can be done but as with all ventures/projects/investments there is risk. The reason why we are taking this approach is to create a buffer or safety net in a falling market. If you add real value, even if prices continue to slide, it means we will not have to panic or be stuck in a house that is worth less than what we paid for it. We have folk with the right skills within the family to enable to do a serious renovation /extension etc...It is not for the vast majority as it is a costly ball ache for most.

Yes the general market is still sliding in terms of prices, but some sectors such as 3 bed family homes with a garden in good catchment areas are proving more resilient. It is amazing what mummy and daddy will do to ensure little Farquar fraternises with the 'right' kids at school, especially if they cannot afford private schooling which is amazingly common in Edinburgh. Sadly, the school catchment system in the UK has (is) played its role in house price inflation. Seriously, it is incredible but many young families we know will sacrifice/compromise many aspects of a home just because it is in the right area for schools.

Now flats are a different matter....lots more supply

Edited by geed

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Yes there are def areas that are more resilient.

Even saying that i still think it would be incredibly hard to make any 'profit' from it.

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The post rate of this forum tends to indicate that most of you are as bored as I am watching this slow motion car crash develop.

Something has got to give. Must be many thousands out there who are hanging on for dear life.

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The post rate of this forum tends to indicate that most of you are as bored as I am watching this slow motion car crash develop.

Something has got to give. Must be many thousands out there who are hanging on for dear life.

I might suggest that houses are not really selling at the moment.

I live in Angus and nothing is moving.

Some houses on the market for years!

New builds go appear popular- but these seem to be selling a premium/m2 to older homes - higher £/m2 than even big old money homes.

If you are looking to buy - and can find someone who actually wants to sell - you'll get the place for a post-HPC price if you like.

Asking prices and o/o prices are in fairytale land.

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  • 238 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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