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Did London Prices Fall By 25%?

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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39855.html#comment213176

He's looking to invest heavily in UK property by the end of the year as he can see another bubble.

Well I didn't see anything like 25% falls in my area, perhaps half that in nominal terms and now up a lot higher than the original peak.

I can't understand how there will be 'another' bubble when we already seem to be in the middle of one with massive competition for very average houses, sealed bids etc.

My viewpoint is based on outer London as well, so I should imagine that the prime central areas are even worse.

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Nadeem Walayat, wrote in Jan 2009 of a -36% UK drop in house prices between 2007-2011... from front page of this website.

I hope his investment strategy is not driven on the same sentiment that created that rather optimistic but very wrong prediction.

The reality is the bubble never left for parts of London, which is where I gather he is going to put his money.

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According to the Nationwide HPI index, London is the same nominal as it was mid-2007. In RPI terms that's about a 25% drop (not in wages, though, mind).

The places I'm looking at buying certainly aren't, though.

It dipped in the middle to a floor in early 2009. How I wish I'd bought then ;-)

Edited by the_duke_of_hazzard

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The places I'm looking at buying certainly aren't, though.

It dipped in the middle to a floor in early 2009. How I wish I'd bought then ;-)

That mirrors what I have seen.

The really ominous sign for me is the way prices are going up in the poorer areas now.

In the original boom up to 2007, the prices where I am in Surbiton went up much quicker than in the less sought after neighbouring area of Tolworth. The gap in prices became massive, bigger than the gap in desirability and facilities between the areas.

Similar 3-4 bed semis were twice the price at the peak (£700k in Surbiton, £350k in Tolworth). Now in 2013 the Surbiton price is perhaps 10% up on that peak, but the Tolworth prices are up more like 50% as they seem to be coming on at £500k+ and some are actually selling for that as well.

Truly crazy state of affairs.

Edited by worried1

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http://

www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=london&all=1

According to that it looks like some London prices did drop by maybe 25% for a few months in 2008/2009 although prices on average didn't fall by anything like 25% and flats seemed to hold up relative to other properties - although some of the drops seem to have been partly seasonal as in 2009 they happened early in the year.

It looks like detached properties did drop by about 25% in 2009 before bouncing back but there again it looks like they also dropped by about 30% around 2010/2011 - their prices have been extremely volatile since 2008 although the overall trend for detached still seems quite flat on average.

Probably a lot of the volatility is accounted for by variations in the type and location of property so maybe the chart for flats gives a better guide for what has been happening to the London market in general - as there's more of them? and there's not quite so much variation in flats?

Edited by billybong

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http://

www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/United-Kingdom/Price-History

That link gives another chart showing historical house prices and in that one it looks like London generally did drop in percentage terms more than elsewhere - not NI of course - before bouncing back.

It seems to contradict the home.co.uk chart for "all" London properties.

Edited by billybong

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According to the Nationwide HPI index, London is the same nominal as it was mid-2007. In RPI terms that's about a 25% drop (not in wages, though, mind).

The places I'm looking at buying certainly aren't, though.

It dipped in the middle to a floor in early 2009. How I wish I'd bought then ;-)

Do you REALLY wish you'd bought a london property then? Or do you wish you'd invested in Google in early 2009 at $300 a share?

;)

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of course London fell 20-25% by early 2009. Then they bailed out the #banksters and slashed rates. So it promptly soared again. By mid '10 they were back to where they had been in late 2007. And pretty well stayed there but for small moves. Mkt however collapsed some 40%.

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not sure Haliwide are the people one goes to for your £1 or £2m mortgage...indeed, if other threads on London are anything to go by, its johnny foreigner and his CASH that is pushin up prices.

BUY

CONSUME

DONT QUESTION AUTHORITY.

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That mirrors what I have seen.

The really ominous sign for me is the way prices are going up in the poorer areas now.

In the original boom up to 2007, the prices where I am in Surbiton went up much quicker than in the less sought after neighbouring area of Tolworth. The gap in prices became massive, bigger than the gap in desirability and facilities between the areas.

Similar 3-4 bed semis were twice the price at the peak (£700k in Surbiton, £350k in Tolworth). Now in 2013 the Surbiton price is perhaps 10% up on that peak, but the Tolworth prices are up more like 50% as they seem to be coming on at £500k+ and some are actually selling for that as well.

Truly crazy state of affairs.

Isn't this what you'd expect? Life goes on and families grow and need a house. in these post interest only, credit constrained times seven hundred is totally unattainable but three fifty isnt, so I'd expect the activity to be there, and unfortunately activity tends to mean rising prices in London as there's always new families but no one is building new homes.

That pattern of desirable locations going up, then the less desirable once the first place becomes unattainable has gone on for decades in London.

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Isn't this what you'd expect? Life goes on and families grow and need a house. in these post interest only, credit constrained times seven hundred is totally unattainable but three fifty isnt, so I'd expect the activity to be there, and unfortunately activity tends to mean rising prices in London as there's always new families but no one is building new homes.

That pattern of desirable locations going up, then the less desirable once the first place becomes unattainable has gone on for decades in London.

It is exactly what I'd expect, but I am just shocked at the sheer speed it is happening on top of already ridiculously high prices.

15 years ago, Tolworth was just as scary as Streatham or Tooting, but didn't have the advantage of being close enough to London for people who like 'edgy' areas to move there. It didn't really have a target audience at all apart from loyal locals who just couldn't afford anywhere else.

Now Tolworth has got only a little bit better, but there is a lot of building going on at the moment, including the standard hallmark of regeneration - a Waitrose!

As you say, it is nothing new, but it makes me feel old that I have lived to see even Tolworth regenerate to a place with £500k 3 bed houses!

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  • 246 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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