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GAL BEAR

What Is Happening ?

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<_< From what I read on here the Land Registry figures were not too great for us Bears.

However what I am seeing around me is the opposite.

I live in Romford - Essex (unfortunatley!).

1.HOUSES still have 'FOR SALE' boards outside for months & months. A Lady down the road from

me has been on sale since CHRISTMAS (LAST YEAR) she was getting desperate when i spoke to her

in May -God knows what mental state she is in now. (And its a nice house!)

2. My friend eventually sold her house to go to Spain. Was on sale for nearly 8 months, eventually

she took a 60 grand hit! (sold for £290,000). She was not a happy bunny.

3. Girl at work selling her flat. Noticed when I looked on 'Right move' for her (she wants a bigger flat now) that 2 bed flats (grotty ex council ) were selling 2 yrs ago for about £135,000 , Summer just gone dropped to about £115,000. now amazingly these have dropped to to 99 grand !!! (I always use council propertys to do comparisons cos they are all pretty much the same so easier to compare prices.). She has now had her flat re-valued. (She had it valued last year) she told me today the valuation has knocked about 15 grand off it !! She had another one and that one came out worse !!!

I know these are only small examples, but what the hell is going on ?

Do the Land Registry only use asking prices ?

Or is that some parts of the country dropped, others went down so it sort of gives a confusing picture.

I am one very confused GAL BEAR

:(:(:(

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Perhaps it’s time to change your name to galbull – I have a friend in romford trying to sell his flat – he has a buyer now but only had a few viewers and had to drop his price but it sold. Land registry as far as I know does not lie and is the most accurate house price report.

But I agree it’s not what I see but I think it’s the estate agents that set the prices high and when they sell they sell with a small increase even after reductions.

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Land registry is based on actual completion price, so in a sense it is the most accurate.

However, there are some interesting things you need to bear in mind:

1- regions are all averaged togther. So even if the south is falling, if the north is rising a lot, the average is rising. If the falls seen in the south indeed spread to the other regions, then the overall average may fall.

2- transaction levels are very low. And, land registry only records the sales that go through. So, one way to explain the increase only the high-end houses are actually selling. There is some good evidence for this. So, while it looks like the average price is going up, the trend may simply be that the average quality of houses which are selling is shifting up to better houses, and the lower end houses are simply not selling.

3- I don't think that many people become bears or bulls from statistics. I think that anecdotes are key in converting them. People got the property bug because they heard about people making a lot of easy money. The statistics helped to back it up, sure, but the anecdotes were key. If the crash comes, it will be because people are hearing more and more bearish anecdotes of reposessions, price reductions and houses taking months to sell.

frugalista

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Hi Galbear

I wouldn't concern myself about Land Registry figures - they are generally 3 months out of date and are now being based on the lowest number of transactions since 1974. I wonder if the sale of Neston Easton for £25m was included in that figure - that would bump up the average!!

It's happening now but like a recession it's so much easier to identify in hindsight...

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2- transaction levels are very low. And, land registry only records the sales that go through. So, one way to explain the increase only the high-end houses are actually selling. There is some good evidence for this. So, while it looks like the average price is going up, the trend may simply be that the average quality of houses which are selling is shifting up to better houses, and the lower end houses are simply not selling.

I was surprised at the volume of sales completed – I could only check back a year but in

July – Sept 03 – 290637 sales were completed

July – Sept 04 – 309101 sales were completed

July – Sept 05 – 261481 sales were completed

Personally sales I don’t think that sales look that much down? (I must admit this is not what I thought they would have been)

Edited by look to the past

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Isn't there a timelag issue as well?

More often than not it takes months for transactions to complete, then the paperwork has to be submitted to the Land Registry.

I would imagine that a large proportion of the Q3 transactions stems from deals agreed in Q1 or Q2.

The upside, Galbear, is that what you are seeing is likely to translate into figures when it will affect people's sentiment even more: Q1 and Q2 2006, just to contradict the spring bounce and SIPP hype!

J.

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Do the Land Registry only use asking prices ?

Or is that some parts of the country dropped, others went down so it sort of gives a confusing picture.

The Land Registry figures are the actual sale price, that's why they're very laggy, sales going through today probably wont hit the LR figures until Q1 or Q2 2006 by the time all the conveyancing has gone through and the potential 3 month lag if the property misses the previous LR report. Some sales take even longer to appear on the registry, and therefore figures.

The latest report showed quite a marked drop in transaction volumes, the actual property prices is rather a case of the curious incident of the dog.

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It might be the last few hangers on diving in? I have a number of friends and colleagues who have bought in the last six months. Basically they didn't want to wait any longer.

Mr Joe.

Edit very poor spelling LOL

Edited by Mr Joe

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Perhaps it’s time to change your name to galbull – I have a friend in romford trying to sell his flat – he has a buyer now but only had a few viewers and had to drop his price but it sold. Land registry as far as I know does not lie and is the most accurate house price report.

It does lie when it comes to many new builds because of the sort of incentives the builders offer to prop the sale price up, that's by no fault of the LR of course.

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The latest report showed quite a marked drop in transaction volumes, the actual property prices is rather a case of the curious incident of the dog.

yup - its all about volumes. Ask any share trader... you can quote whatever price you want, but if there's no volume, its not attractive

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my take on it is:

1)yes,there is a timelag between transaction prices and registry data.

2)the HBOS/NW figs are seriously skewed.

...the best indicator around was the travis perkins(home plumbings etc) resuilts today...they are abysmal!!...what's more they have given warnings about the future state of the market.....price cutting is seriously affecting their profit.

I'm not really worried about the state of the housing market...it's all going according to plan.......if jewsons,B+q and co were in a boom market NO WAY would they cut prices as severely.....that's desparation!

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I am one very confused GAL BEAR

:(:(:(

Don't be sad, come here and let a guy bear show you were you are going wrong.

PS I know I should not post past midnight :lol:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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