Ftse Tanked The Last 3 Days

[deflation]

I can't see why. All the gains since mid January wiped out in 3 days.

The news has all been what you'd expect, or is there something 'unexpected' that hasn't been reported? Surely not the N. Korea kerfuffle?

[winkie]

I can't see why. All the gains since mid January wiped out in 3 days.

The news has all been what you'd expect, or is there something 'unexpected' that hasn't been reported? Surely not the N. Korea kerfuffle?

So what caused the gains?..........if we knew that there is no wonder why we now see the falls.

[Solitaire]

"...........Meanwhile, reports a new bird flu virus in China hammered stocks in the travel and leisure sector, providing an extra drag on sentiment early on"

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=20809038

[porca misèria]

Looks like a correction after the sharp rises.

I expect some of it is down to the end of the tax year: people optimising their tax affairs. If a bit of profit-taking for CGT purposes started it off, that could be amplified by general nervousness, and maybe also by the dark side of algorithmic trading.

[blackgoose]

Poor US jobless figures caused much of today's fall. To be honest, I dont know why the market has been so resilient, what the problems in cyprus, fears of bank runs, contagion and now N. Korea. Maybe the last of the bulls have finally bought and a more sensible market price reflecting the risks will be coming.

Edited April 5, 2013 by blackgoose

[cybernoid]

So what caused the gains?..........if we knew that there is no wonder why we now see the falls.

Isa deadline?

As ever nothing to do with the actual value of anything, just how much buying and selling goes on

[deflation]

Looks like a correction after the sharp rises.

I expect some of it is down to the end of the tax year: people optimising their tax affairs. If a bit of profit-taking for CGT purposes started it off, that could be amplified by general nervousness, and maybe also by the dark side of algorithmic trading.

Good point about the end of the UK tax year, in the same week as Easter holidays too. But it's the same Europe over.

DAX down 2% today and has had 3 bad days as well.

[sf-02]

The FTSE normally seems to completely ignore UK and EU data but follow any changes in the US so probably down to US jobs figures, though the Dow Jones has not been dropping too badly the past couple of days whilst EU markets have.

I was thinking maybe word is going round of a downgrade. The UK is on watch and it is expected soon, but that wouldn't effect all the EU markets would it?

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

I can't see why. All the gains since mid January wiped out in 3 days.

The news has all been what you'd expect, or is there something 'unexpected' that hasn't been reported? Surely not the N. Korea kerfuffle?

perhaps thats because you are looking for news to validate the markets, when markets are driven by behaviour and on a planet of 6 billion id struggle to find a news source that encompasses all their thoughts,beliefs and aspirations at any moment in time

[justthisbloke]

I'm currently watching the rises and falls with mixed feelings. I'm about 60% invested with the other 40% earning nothing as cash so both rises and falls are sort of good news!

[sleepless]

see what happens when you stop QE.

We need "Help to Invest"

[MrPin]

Looks like a correction after the sharp rises.

I expect some of it is down to the end of the tax year: people optimising their tax affairs. If a bit of profit-taking for CGT purposes started it off, that could be amplified by general nervousness, and maybe also by the dark side of algorithmic trading.

Damn you! That was a sensible answer!

[porca misèria]

see what happens when you stop QE.

We need "Help to Invest"

I may invest another £50k sooner rather than later.

After all, "Help to buy" means I need £50k less to buy a £250k house.

[sleepless]

I may invest another £50k sooner rather than later.

After all, "Help to buy" means I need £50k less to buy a £250k house.

You've got it.

See, all you doubters, Ozzy ain't so bad after all.

[interestrateripoff]

It goes up and then it goes down!

[zugzwang]

perhaps thats because you are looking for news to validate the markets, when markets are driven by behaviour and on a planet of 6 billion id struggle to find a news source that encompasses all their thoughts,beliefs and aspirations at any moment in time

+1

News = noise. We need to think more in terms of phase transitions and critical exponents. The stock market has a long memory!

Oh, and stay long. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever. There's been a temporary interruption in the Fed's liquidity provision this week - no big MBS purchases and $60bn in new paper to settle, that's all. In terms of the long view this doesn't even register. Now the BoJ is on board and stuffing cash into the accounts of the world's leading banks too, we're off to the Moon, to Mars, to the outer planets of Alpha Centaurus.

[Daft Boy]

So what caused the gains?..........if we knew that there is no wonder why we now see the falls.

Perhaps Its all the cash from the 2012/13 isa's going in. Then the fundmanagers take their profits

[South Lorne]

I can't see why. All the gains since mid January wiped out in 3 days.

................. Surely not the N. Korea kerfuffle?

..well some thought WW1 would be over in a couple of days ....the silly thing is.... it really could be over in a couple of days this time...

[@contradevian]

Stock shares and even house prices don't go straight up and down in straight lines. More than likely just the `normal` retracement after sharp rises as someone has pointed out.

A "Fibonacci" retracement of say 23.6% or even 38.6% of a previous high (or low) is relatively shallow. Even higher (+50% or more) would move the bias to the bearish side. I don't follow the FTSE particularly (though I probably should).

http://en.wikipedia....cci_retracement

I use "Fibonacci's" a lot for trading countertrends in currency markets, and for determining levels of risk.

Stock markets are weird at the moment. Good or bad news can make them rise. Bad fundamentals countered by the prospect of Uncle Ben and Merv's magic money printing machines.

The prospect of QE obviously impacts on currency. Cable rose this week, on news there would be no increase in QE for the time being (might be why the FTSE fell!)

Edited April 6, 2013 by Secure Tenant

[crashmonitor]

Stock shares and even house prices don't go straight up and down in straight lines. More than likely just the `normal` retracement after sharp rises as someone has pointed out.

A "Fibonacci" retracement of say 23.6% or even 38.6% of a previous high (or low) is relatively shallow. Even higher (+50% or more) would move the bias to the bearish side. I don't follow the FTSE particularly (though I probably should).

http://en.wikipedia....cci_retracement

I use "Fibonacci's" a lot for trading countertrends in currency markets, and for determining levels of risk.

Stock markets are weird at the moment. Good or bad news can make them rise. Bad fundamentals countered by the prospect of Uncle Ben and Merv's magic money printing machines.

The prospect of QE obviously impacts on currency. Cable rose this week, on news there would be no increase in QE for the time being (might be why the FTSE fell!)

I hoped for more fluctuations for my investment strategy and this bull run has caught me out . I went in at 5260 last May and cashed out at 5900 in October. I was beginning to think I might have missed the boat this time , certainly I would be back in at sub 5700, irrespective of the status of the killer bird flu.

Edited April 6, 2013 by crashmonitor

[uro_who]

I hoped for more fluctuations for my investment strategy and this bull run has caught me out . I went in at 5260 last May and cashed out at 5900 in October. I was beginning to think I might have missed the boat this time , certainly I would be back in at sub 5700, irrespective of the status of the killer bird flu.

It's simply technical analysis. The DOW is just above the 2007 peak and has only been blown back up there by the printing of dollars. All of the market participants know that. They also know that all of the other market participants know that. All are unsure whether the market can continue to rise or will simply fall back down to trough levels. Investing in the stock market at the moment is a very 50/50 decision. It is going to oscillate wildly around this hugely significant limit/support. It will either crash to the floor, or if it gets a head of steam fly to the moon. Either way it's going to be terrifying and as someone who has made good money out of TA over the last 5 years my decision on long or short at the moment is out. It's simply too dangerous for the return.

For longer to medium term Google how much the US debt stands at. See if you can work out the effect of that over the next 15 years.

Edited April 6, 2013 by uro_who

[@contradevian]

I hoped for more fluctuations for my investment strategy and this bull run has caught me out . I went in at 5260 last May and cashed out at 5900 in October. I was beginning to think I might have missed the boat this time , certainly I would be back in at sub 5700, irrespective of the status of the killer bird flu.

I quickly plotted a Fabinacci retracement for the FTSE 100 from IGIndex charts. Looks like a 38.2% retracement of the recent rise. I'd say the outlook was still fairly bullish but I suspect the market is paying close attention to it dropping towards a more bearish 50% retracement and crossing down passed the 100 day (and possible 200 day) moving average. Tthat would be a signal for me to sell the index anyway. It also concerns me slightly that its a straight drop down, some very long red candlesticks!

Don't think I'd go long just yet, and neither would I short it, but I am very cautious!

Obviously you can be more aggressive/conservative depending on where you plot the Fabinicci from, also recent high/lows and trend lines help. This is not investment advise. DYOR!

Bye the way "50%" isn't mathematically part of the Fabinacci sequence, its part of "Dow theory" of course

Cable this week managed to claw back to 23.6% of its dramatic fall which started at the beginning of 2013. Signs of dollar weakening.

Edited April 6, 2013 by Secure Tenant

[MongerOfDoom]

I quickly plotted a Fabinacci retracement for the FTSE 100 from IGIndex charts.

YM Fibonacci. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_retracement And it's complete bunk, as you can probably tell from the amount of money you made by using that "knowledge".

Who would have thought that temporarily not printing any more money could be bad for the stock market. Or that every random wobble must have a simple, easily discoverable, explanation.

Or indeed that "profit taking" is a sound concept rather than something the talking heads on TV say when there is no obvious reason for a slight dip. Come to think of it, I probably knew that already since you often hear people accurately predict that the market will fall a little on profit taking ....

[@contradevian]

YM Fibonacci. https://en.wikipedia...cci_retracement And it's complete bunk, as you can probably tell from the amount of money you made by using that "knowledge".

Please tell us why, oh great Oracle why you think Fibonacci is bunk?

So from your "your great fountain of knowledge" is the market going up or down (or sideways for that matter)?

Clue. I never said it was a money making tool.

Fibonacci sequences apply throughout nature, from forecasting rabbit population growth to the number of digits on your hand, and for stock / forex prices for probably no other reason that other traders use them, as well as trend lines, and moving averages, and if other traders use them, then I want to use them too. I want to know what "they" think.

Edited April 6, 2013 by Secure Tenant

[wish I could afford one]

Interesting thread. Some HPC'ers talking about Prices going up and down. Other HPC'ers giving some good trading analysis. Nobody though seems to be talking about being in the FTSE for the Dividends. That's one of the reasons I'm in. Strange given that over the last 5 years between 43% and all the Real Return depending on which FTSE your are talking about has come from them. Source.